On Brian Robinson, and other things

February 19, 2024

by Steve Thomas

I’ve been fairly hard on Washington running back Brian Robinson sometimes, both here in this space and on the air on The Hog Sty Podcast.  Some believe that Robinson would finally stabilize Washington’s rushing attack, which had floundered through many different leading rushers for years.  He immediately engendered sympathy from the fanbase when he recovered in record time from being shot during an attempted carjacking in downtown DC, to be available as a rookie.  After that event, he has, at least in some respects, performed reasonably well.  Still, though, it would be somewhat disingenuous to suggest that the running game has been a net positive for the team recently even taking into account former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s strong pro-passing bias last season. The team drafted Chris Rodriguez in round 6 last year to provide an additional spark, and his performance has made me think about how Robinson measures up against his peers.  Therefore, for today’s missive, I thought I’d compare Robinson to some of his peers in order determine just how much success Robinson has had, as well as review Washington’s draft history at the position.

To review, Robinson, 6’2” and 225 pounds, stayed at Alabama for a full 5 seasons, playing in a total of 55 games, gaining 2704 yards in 545 carries, for an average of 5.0 yards per carry, and 29 touchdowns, plus 52 receptions for 446 yards, 8.6 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns.  In 2021, Robinson had 271 carries for 1343 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and 14 touchdowns, plus 35 receptions for 296 yards, 8.5 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns.   He earned First Team All-SEC honors in 2021. At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.53 seconds, jumped 30 inches in the vertical leap and 9’11” in the standing broad jump.

In his two seasons in the NFL, Robinson has played 27 games, including 24 starts, and had 383 carries for 1530 yards, 4.0 yards, per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 6 fumbles.  As a receiver, he has 45 receptions in 55 targets for 428 yards, 9.5 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns.  In 2023, he played in 15 games, including 15 starts, and had 178 carries for 733 yards, which is 4.1 yards per carry, 5 touchdowns, and 4 fumbles, plus 36 receptions for 368 yards, 10.2 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns.

The table below shows every running back drafted in 2022, sorted by draft order, with each player’s relevant stats:

Player	Yds	Att	Y/A	Round	Pick	G	GS	TD	Y/G	1D	Team
Breece Hall	1457	303	4.8	2	36	24	18	9	60.7	60	NYJ
Kenneth Walker III	1955	447	4.4	2	41	30	26	17	65.2	97	SEA
James Cook	1629	326	5	2	63	33	13	4	49.4	78	BUF
Rachaad White	1471	401	3.7	3	91	34	25	7	43.3	73	TAM
Tyrion Davis-Price	120	40	3	3	93	7	0	0	17.1	6	SFO
Brian Robinson Jr.	1530	383	4	3	98	27	24	7	56.7	96	WAS
Dameon Pierce	1355	365	3.7	4	107	27	20	6	50.2	68	HOU
Zamir White	521	121	4.3	4	122	31	4	1	16.8	23	LVR
Isaiah Spiller	137	55	2.5	4	123	15	0	0	9.1	3	LAC
Pierre Strong	391	73	5.4	4	127	32	1	2	12.2	15	CLE,NWE
Hassan Haskins	93	25	3.7	4	131	15	1	0	6.2	5	TEN
Tyler Allgeier	1718	396	4.3	5	151	33	10	7	52.1	92	ATL
Snoop Conner	42	12	3.5	5	154	8	0	1	5.3	2	JAX
Jerome Ford	825	212	3.9	5	156	30	12	4	27.5	34	CLE
Kyren Williams	1283	263	4.9	5	164	22	11	12	58.3	68	LAR
Ty Chandler	481	108	4.5	5	169	20	4	3	24.1	21	MIN
Kevin Harris	117	34	3.4	6	183	9	1	2	13	5	NWE
Tyler Badie	0	1	0	6	196	1	0	0	0	0	DEN
Keaontay Ingram	134	62	2.2	6	201	20	1	1	6.7	8	ARI
Trestan Ebner	54	24	2.3	6	203	17	0	0	3.2	2	CHI
Isiah Pacheco	1765	375	4.7	7	251	31	24	12	56.9	90	KAN
Zander Horvath	8	4	2	7	260	15	2	0	0.5	2	LAC

This next table shows the top ten of the 2022 running back class, sorted by yards gained in 2022 and 2023:

Player	Yds	Att	Y/A	Round	G	GS	TD	Y/G	Pos	Team
Kenneth Walker III	1955	447	4.4	2	30	26	17	65.2	RB	SEA
Isiah Pacheco	1765	375	4.7	7	31	24	12	56.9	RB	KAN
Tyler Allgeier	1718	396	4.3	5	33	10	7	52.1	RB	ATL
James Cook	1629	326	5	2	33	13	4	49.4	RB	BUF
Brian Robinson Jr.	1530	383	4	3	27	24	7	56.7	RB	WAS
Rachaad White	1471	401	3.7	3	34	25	7	43.3	RB	TAM
Breece Hall	1457	303	4.8	2	24	18	9	60.7	RB	NYJ
Dameon Pierce	1355	365	3.7	4	27	20	6	50.2	RB	HOU
Kyren Williams	1283	263	4.9	5	22	11	12	58.3	RB	LAR
Jerome Ford	825	212	3.9	5	30	12	4	27.5	RB	CLE

Here are the top 10, sorted by yards per attempt:

Player	Yds	Att	Y/A	Round	G	GS	Team
Pierre Strong	391	73	5.4	4	32	1	CLE,NWE
James Cook	1629	326	5	2	33	13	BUF
Kyren Williams	1283	263	4.9	5	22	11	LAR
Breece Hall	1457	303	4.8	2	24	18	NYJ
Isiah Pacheco	1765	375	4.7	7	31	24	KAN
Ty Chandler	481	108	4.5	5	20	4	MIN
Kenneth Walker III	1955	447	4.4	2	30	26	SEA
Tyler Allgeier	1718	396	4.3	5	33	10	ATL
Zamir White	521	121	4.3	4	31	4	LVR
Brian Robinson Jr.	1530	383	4	3	27	24	WAS

What to take from all of this?  First, players drafted in the top 3 rounds are generally expected to become starters; anyone who makes it from rounds 4 through 7 is a bonus.  In the case of the 2022 class, of the 6 drafted in the top three rounds, only two, the Jets’ Breece Hall and Buffalo’s James Cook – both second round picks – have averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry, in their case 4.8 and 5.0 yards, respectively.  At 4.0 yards per carry, Robinson is essentially in the middle of the pack of the top picks.

However, when sorted by yards per attempt, several other players from farther down in the draft jump up, including Pierre Strong, with just 71 carries, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and others.  Robinson falls to 10th of 22, which remains in the middle of the pack.  As sorted by yards gained, Robinson jumps up to 5th place as a result of his relatively high number of carries.  I’m not going to publish another chart here for this, but Robinson’s 383 carries was good for 4th place, behind Atlanta’s Tyler Allgier, Tampa’s Rachaad White, and Walker.

All of this suggests that Robinson has produced at a roughly average rate as compared to his peers, with the standouts being Hall and Cook, both from round 2.  The Rams’ Kyren Williams and the aforementioned Pacheco, drafted in rounds 5 and 7, respectively, are the ones who most prominently outplayed their draft status.  Robinson has neither failed nor excelled compared to the rest of his class.  Much like most of Washington’s running backs in the past many years, with the principal exception of Adrian Peterson, he isn’t a standout and shouldn’t necessarily be regarded as the future.

I ran a second set of data, but this time expanded the pool of running backs to the draft classes of 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, and limited it to backs with a total of 300 or more career carries.  Only 23 running backs met these criteria.  Of those 23, Jonathan Taylor, drafted by the Colts in round 2 in 2020, easily outpaced everyone by nearly every measure, with 925 carries, ranked 1st, for 4582 yards, also ranked first, 5.0 yards per carry, tied for 1st with Cook, and 40 touchdowns, which is first by a whopping 17 touchdowns.  Robinson’s 4.0 yards per carry was tied for 17th, which is fairly low amongst the backs who had a significant number of carries.

Finally, in order to provide some context, this last chart shows every running back drafted by the Redskins / Washington Football Team / Washington C-words since 2004, which is an even 20 season, with the career numbers for each player, not just their stats from their time with Washington:

Player	Round	Pick	DrftYr	From	To	G	GS	Yds	Att	Y/A	TD	Y/G
Alfred Morris	6	173	2012	2012	2020	114	70	6173	1429	4.3	35	54.1
Antonio Gibson	3	66	2020	2020	2023	61	32	2643	642	4.1	22	43.3
Samaje Perine	4	114	2017	2017	2023	93	12	1830	454	4	8	19.7
Brian Robinson Jr.	3	98	2022	2022	2023	27	24	1530	383	4	7	56.7
Chris Thompson	5	154	2013	2013	2020	74	1	1214	257	4.7	5	16.4
Roy Helu	4	105	2011	2011	2015	57	5	1171	272	4.3	7	20.5
Matt Jones	3	95	2015	2015	2017	25	7	964	248	3.9	6	38.6
Evan Royster	6	177	2011	2011	2013	32	2	416	81	5.1	2	13
Chris Rodriguez	6	193	2023	2023	2023	13	0	247	51	4.8	2	19
Derrius Guice	2	59	2018	2019	2019	5	1	245	42	5.8	2	49
Nehemiah Broughton	7	222	2005	2005	2006	6	0	3	1	3	0	0.5
Eddie Williams	7	221	2009	2011	2011	6	0	2	2	1	0	0.3
Manuel White	4	`10	2005			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jawan Jamison	7	228	2013			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lache Seastrunk	6	186	2014			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keith Marshall	7	242	2016			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Love	4	112	2019			0	0	0	0	0	0	0

For the math deficient, that’s a total of just 17 running backs in 20 years.  That’s a pretty low number, even recognizing that Clinton Portis’ prime years were the five seasons from 2004 to 2008.  The chart got too big to show the franchises each player was a part of, but Morris played for 4 other teams, Perine is now on his 4th franchise, and Thompson, Helu, and Jones each played for 1 other team.  For his part, Williams was cut in training camp and saw active time in 2011 for both the Browns and the Seahawks in his one year in the NFL.  The five at the bottom, White, Jamison, Seastrunk, Marshall, and Love, never played a down in the NFL, with most bouncing between other training camps and/or practice squads.  Of this list, only Morris and Thompson had legitimate, long-ish NFL careers, with Thompson spending by far the most time in DC, 7 seasons.  It’s fair to label Perine, Jones, Guice, Broughton, and the 5 who never made a roster as draft busts, with Gibson, Robinson, and Rodriguez currently here, and the rest falling somewhere in between.

The point is that Washington has had a stunning lack of success in drafting running backs over the last two decades, and Robinson seems to be falling somewhere in the middle: neither a bust nor a franchise-level player.  Keep looking, Mr. Peters.