How does Terry McLaurin stack up in comparison to his peers?

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February 26, 2024

by Steve Thomas

Since we’re in a temporary lull in the NFL’s calendar, I thought I’d continue with my series of looking at important Washington players; last week’s column was about Brian Robinson, so Washington’s star receiver Terry McLaurin seemed like the natural successor.   Those of us who reside inside the fandome of the Washington Redskins Washington Football Team Washington Commanders Washington team are pretty big fans of McLaurin, who was drafted in 2019 under what is now two leadership regimes ago, in the final year of Jay Gruden’s tenure.  How does he compare to his peers, though, and what does this information tell us about his future going forward?

As a review, McLaurin, who is 6’0” and is listed at 208 pounds, spent four years at Ohio St., and started alongside the late Dwayne Haskins in 2018.  During that time, McLaurin played a total of 44 games, making 75 receptions for 1,251 yards, 167 yards per catch, and 19 touchdowns.  In 2018, McLaurin had 35 receptions, 701 yards, 20.0 yards per catch, and had 11 touchdowns.  McLaurin is a burner, running the 40 yard dash in 4.354 seconds at the NFL Combine (3rd-best among receivers and 5th-best overall).  He also jumped 37.5 inches in the vertical leap and 10’5” inches in the standing broad jump, ran the 3 cone drill in 7.01 seconds, and the 20 yard short shuttle in 4.15 seconds.

He was the 12th pick in the third round, 76th overall, in 2019.  In his NFL career, he’s played a total of 80 games, with 80 starts, and has 378 receptions in 609 targets, for a 62.1% catch percentage, 5283 yards, 14.0 yards per reception, and 25 touchdowns.  Below are his numbers broken out by year:

2019: 14 gms, 58 receptions in 93 targets, 62.4% catch perc, 919 yds, 15.8 yds/rec, 7 TDs

2020: 15 gms, 87 receptions in 134 targets, 64.9% catch perc, 1118 yds, 12.9 yds/rec, 4 TDs

2021: 17 gms, 77 receptions in 130 targets, 59.2% catch perc, 1053 yds, 13.7 yds/rec, 5 TDs

2022: 17 gms, 77 receptions in 120 targets, 64.2% catch perc, 1191 yds, 15.5 yds/rec, 5 TDs

2023: 17 gms, 79 receptions in 132 targets, 59.8% catch perc, 1002 yds, 12.7 yds/rec, 4 TDs

He was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2022.  The first thing you should notice about McLaurin’s statistics is the remarkable consistency of his annual production.  He’s very much been the same guy since his rookie year, despite the massive upheaval and slew of Washington quarterbacks.  This past season may have seemed like a bit of a downer by his standards, but the truth is that it ended up being right in the pocket for him on a seasonal basis.  Combine his stats with his high character and quiet leadership ability, and Washington is lucky to have him.

How does he compare to his peers, though?  To approach this question, I first pulled a list of all of the wide receivers who were drafted in rounds 1 – 3 in 2019, along with their relevant numbers:

Player Rd G GS Yds Tgt Rec Y/R Y/G Ctch% TD Drop% YAC/R PB AP1
A.J. Brown 2 77 69 5947 598 379 15.7 77.2 63.4 42 4.5 5.7 3 0
D.K. Metcalf 2 82 81 5332 618 372 14.3 65 60.2 43 5.3 4.2 2 0
Terry McLaurin 3 80 80 5283 609 378 14 66 62.1 25 3.3 4.6 1 0
Diontae Johnson 3 77 67 4363 639 391 11.2 56.7 61.2 25 5.2 4.4 1 0
Deebo Samuel 2 66 58 4122 429 283 14.6 62.5 66 19 7.7 9.4 1 1
Marquise Brown 1 72 65 3644 525 313 11.6 50.6 59.6 28 4.4 4.1 0 0
Mecole Hardman 2 68 28 2212 244 166 13.3 32.5 68 16 6.1 8.1 1 0
Parris Campbell 2 44 27 1087 171 117 9.3 24.7 68.4 5 4.1 4 0 0
N’Keal Harry 1 49 18 714 112 64 11.2 14.6 57.1 5 2.7 2.9 0 0
Miles Boykin 3 73 25 498 63 38 13.1 6.8 60.3 7 3.2 2.5 0 0
Andy Isabella 2 43 3 447 54 33 13.5 10.4 61.1 3 3.7 7.1 0 0
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 2 40 7 290 35 16 18.1 7.3 45.7 1 14.3 3.5 0 0

Four players jump out, in order: A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, McLaurin, and Diontae Johnson.  Brown is the top of the heap, with significantly more yards and receptions than the rest, and second in yards per reception only to bust JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who had a statistically insignificant amount of NFL play time and is now out of the NFL.  It isn’t an accident that Brown has been to three Pro Bowls.  In a practical reality sense, Metcalf and McLaurin are essentially tied.  With 11.2 yards per reception, Johnson’s numbers read more like a possession receiver.  All of the other players on this list are far behind, with a number of players who probably qualify as draft busts.  One additional stat stands out: McLaurin’s drop rate of 3.3% is significantly lower than all of the players who have received significant play time.  The conclusion here is that McLaurin stacks up very well as compared to his draft class, particularly as a third round pick.  He’s a quality player, albeit not quite at the top.  That shouldn’t be a revelation to anyone.

Now we’ve seen how well McLaurin fits as compared to his 2019 peers, but what about all receivers in general?  Fourteen receivers started at least 65 games and had at least 350 receptions between 2019 and 2023, which equates to having started an average of 13 games and having an average 70 receptions per season:

Player G GS Yds Tgt Rec Y/R Y/G Ctch% TD Drop% YAC/R PB AP1
Tyreek Hill 77 76 6884 724 494 13.9 89.4 68.2 51 4.8 4.6 5 3
Davante Adams 76 76 6584 800 524 12.6 86.6 65.5 56 3.3 4.6 4 3
Stefon Diggs 81 80 6502 738 508 12.8 80.3 68.8 43 4.7 3.8 4 1
A.J. Brown 77 69 5947 598 379 15.7 77.2 63.4 42 4.5 5.7 3 0
D.J. Moore 81 80 5777 670 405 14.3 71.3 60.4 27 4.8 4.7 0 0
Amari Cooper 79 77 5578 613 389 14.3 70.6 63.5 35 4.9 3.9 2 0
Mike Evans 77 77 5577 604 367 15.2 72.4 60.8 54 4 3.6 3 0
D.K. Metcalf 82 81 5332 618 372 14.3 65 60.2 43 5.3 4.2 2 0
Keenan Allen 69 68 5324 692 484 11 77.2 69.9 31 3.6 3.7 4 0
Chris Godwin 72 70 5323 604 436 12.2 73.9 72.2 26 2.8 5.4 1 0
Terry McLaurin 80 80 5283 609 378 14 66 62.1 25 3.3 4.6 1 0
Tyler Lockett 81 81 5213 588 418 12.5 64.4 71.1 40 2.9 3.3 0 0
DeAndre Hopkins 67 66 4918 607 400 12.3 73.4 65.9 31 2.6 3.6 2 1
Diontae Johnson 77 67 4363 639 391 11.2 56.7 61.2 25 5.2 4.4 1 0

This list represents the most productive receivers in the NFL over the past 5 seasons.  McLaurin is ranked 11th of 14 in total receiving yards, 12th in receiving yards, 9th in targets, 10th in catch percentage, 14th in touchdowns, 11th in yards after catch per reception, and 5th in drop percentage.  Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are the only two to be selected to multiple All Pro teams.  Based on this data, in general terms, it’s fair to say that McLaurin is roughly ranked between 10th and 14th amongst the NFL’s receivers, which is all the more impressive considering the disaster the team has been at times, as well as the string of ultimately ineffective quarterbacks.

Certainly, McLaurin is a worthy leader of Washington’s receiving corps; however, I don’t believe that he has been so effective that Washington should stop looking for improvements, as a minimum to compliment him.  Right now, Washington has a laundry list of team needs that are far above receiver – you Marvin Harrison Jr. fans are going to be disappointed – and I don’t think that this new leadership team will be foolish enough to waste starting-quality draft pick this year on the position group.  Also, if the team ever gets their act together at quarterback, it seems possible that McLaurin’s production could possibly improve at least a little bit.  Regardless, McLaurin isn’t a game-changing star, and hasn’t produced as such, and Washington should continue to be on the lookout for someone in that vein.

What do you think about Terry McLaurin’s place amongst the NFL’s leading receivers?