Free Agency 2018: Guards

Posted on by

March 13, 2018

by Steve Thomas and Adam Taraschke

It’s time for part 5 of our ongoing free agency preview, and since we’re now on the cusp of the start of signing season,  I thought this week we’d address one of the biggest deficiencies on the team – guard.  I’ve already covered several other position groups that have serious deficiencies, including wide receivers (read it here), running backs (read it here), inside linebackers (read it here), and corners (read it here).  The issue with the interior offensive line group is this: center appears to be covered for the foreseeable future by Chase Roullier, and right guard will be manned by All-Pro Brandon Scherff.  Left guard, though, is an open question.  The only starting-quality left guards on the 2018 roster were Shawn Lauvoa and Spencer Long, who are both free agents and are not expected back. Therefore, one way or the other, it appears highly likely that a new starter will be manning the position in 2018.  I’ve said on The Hog Sty Podcast that for salary cap reasons it may be more likely for the team to draft a guard, but in the event the team wants to go the free agency route, we’ll take a look at the options here.

Of course, the knowledge that I, Steve, possess about what makes a successful guard pales in comparison to that of Adam Taraschke, who played the position at a division I-A level (yes, I know it’s actually “FCS”; I’m old fashioned, don’t @ me).  I felt both obligated to ask him for his insight and somewhat helpless without it.

Obviously, there are no good stats that tell the tale of a guard’s performance. I’m not quite as concerned about age of free agent guards, within reason, as I have been about other position groups, because guards can play well into their 30s, with health being the critical factor.  Most columns about guards cite Pro Football Focus rankings as a result; however, since I’ve been telling you for several years now not to pay attention to the absolute garbage that organization puts out when it comes to rankings, we’ll avoid using those numbers. With that in mind, here’s what we think about the 2018 free agent guard market.

Top of the Heap

#1 Andrew Norwell; 6’6”, 320 lbs, 26 years old

Andrew Norwell is the undisputed top ranked guard on the market.  He is a 2014 undrafted free agent from Ohio St. who was originally signed by the Carolina Panthers[1].  At the 2014 NFL Combine, he bench-pressed 225 pounds 22 times and ran a 5.28 40 yard dash.  His arm length measured at 33 5/8ths.  He’s played in 55 games for the Panthers, starting 54, and was named as a First Team All-Pro in 2017.

Norwell is a complete guard, a mauler who has been a starter since game 7 of his rookie year and has improved in every season since he arrived in the league.  He is one of the best guards in the NFL in both run and pass blocking, free agent or not, and would be an outstanding addition to the Redskins’ offensive line who would solidify the position for years to come.  The rumor on the circuit last week was that Norwell plans on signing with the New York Giants, and we just got word overnight that now is going to sign with Jacksonville when the league year starts on Wednesday.  From a contractual perspective, Norwell will demand and get what will almost certainly be the largest contract for a guard in the NFL, eclipsing that of Kevin Zeitler of the Browns in terms total value ($60M), average annual value (Zeitler, $12M), and amount guaranteed at signing (Kelechi Osemele, Raiders, $25.4M).  This sort of commitment will realistically take an annual cap hit of at least $10M – $11M, which is doable by Washington but would place an enormous financial commitment on the offensive line group as a whole considering the size of the contracts of Trent Williams and Morgan Moses and the upcoming extension for Brandon Scherff.

Second Tier

#2 – Justin Pugh; 6’5”, 301 lbs, 27 years old

Justin Pugh was selected in the first round of 2013 NFL draft out of Syracuse by the New York Giants.  He ran the 40 yard dash in 5.14 seconds, benched 225 pounds 23 times at the 2013 Syracuse pro day[2], and has 32 inch arms.  Pugh has been a starter for the Giants since day one, playing and starting 63 games.  His principal downside is that he has suffered a series of nagging injuries, including quad, leg, back, and a concussion; in fact, his rookie 2013 season was the only year in which he played all 16 games.

Pugh is highly athletic for a guard and would be ideal for both the zone blocking run scheme and in pass protection.  He’s good in space and has some power, but is not a mauler.  He is versatile and has also played right tackle, so he would be an ideal player to move around in the event of injury.  Pugh would be a quality addition to the Redskins’ line and would bring the added bonus of making the Giants offensive line weaker.

From a salary perspective, Pugh is a step back from Norwell, both in performance and as a result of his extensive injury history, but is still a quality player.  Pugh will be the one to pay for the uncertainty of his availability.  I view Pugh as a top 20 guard, at a minimum, taking his history into account, and as such, he should expect a contract in the realm of $7M per year in average annual value.

#3 – Josh Sitton; 6’3”, 320 lbs, 31 years old

Sitton was a 2008 4th round pick by the Green Bay Packers out of Central Florida.  At the Central Florida pro day, he bench pressed 225 pounds 28 times and ran a 5.2 second 40 yard dash.  As a Packer, he played in 121 games, starting 112.  After he was released by Green Bay near the beginning of the 2016 season, he signed a 2 year contract with the Chicago Bears in 2015 and played 26 games, starting 25.  His contract had a 1 year team option, which Chicago declined, making him a free agent.  For his 10 year career, he’s played a total of 147 games, starting 137.  He was selected as a Pro Bowler in 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2016.  He’s been remarkably healthy during his NFL career, playing 16 games in 6 of his ten seasons, and has missed only a total of 8 games after his 2008 rookie year.

Sitton is known as a technician with very solid fundamentals.  He’s been one of the best guards in the NFL for a long time, and while age is catching up to him, he still has a few good years left in him.  He would be a good fit for the zone run scheme that the Redskins like to run, although his age and wear and tear make him less of a candidate at this point for a power scheme.

From a contractual standpoint, Sitton’s big downside is his age.  He won’t, or shouldn’t, get a 5 year contract, but he’s certainly worth a 3 year deal in the same range as Pugh and Mewhort, around $6-7M in average annual value.

#4 – Jack Mewhort; 6’6”, 309 lbs, 26 years old

Mewhort was a 2014 2nd round pick out of Ohio St. by the Indianapolis Colts.  He did 28 bench press reps of 225 pounds at the 2014 NFL Combine, and has 34 inch arms.  Mewhort has played and started 45 games over the course of his 4 year career.  He is another player who, like Pugh, has an injury history – he injured his knee early in the 2016 season, returned then was placed on injured reserve in the latter half of the season, and then was put on injured reserve again this past season after complications with the same knee arose[3].  He’s only played 15 games over the past two seasons.

Mewhort is a bigger guard, suitable for a power scheme, and while he isn’t overly athletic for the position, he has good fundamentals and will be a quality player in both run and pass blocking, provided he can stay healthy.  He has good pad level and technique for a guard despite his size.

From a contractual perspective, in my view Mewhort is in roughly the same position as Justin Pugh and has approximately the same value.

Other possibilities

#5 – Matt Slauson; 6’5”, 320 lbs, 32 years old

Matt Slauson was a 6th round pick out of Nebraska by the New York Jets in the 2009 NFL draft.  At the 2008 Nebraska pro day, he ran a 5.27 40 yard dash and bench pressed 225 pounds 23 times[4].  He was named as a starter for the Jets in 2010, starting 51 games over 3 seasons, and has been a starter ever since, playing a total of 111 games and starting 108.  He signed a new contract with the Bears in 2012 as a free agent.  He moved on to the San Diego (now Los Angeles) Chargers in 2016.  Slauson suffered has suffered two major injuries in his career, a torn right pectoral muscle in 2014 that caused him to miss 11 games, and a biceps injury this past season in week 7 that caused him to be placed on injured reserve.

Slauson is another bigger, bulky guard who is versatile enough to also play center and well as both guard positions.  He isn’t a great athlete and isn’t quick, but is known as a mauler-type who can also perform well in a zone blocking run scheme.  He is also an asset in pass block situations.

Slauson is another player who will suffer from his age when it comes to his next contract.  He is worth a 2 or 3 year contract in the range of $3-4M per year, average annual value, with $5-9M guaranteed at signing.

#6 – Zach Fulton; 6’5”, 316 lbs, 26 years old

Zach Fulton was a 2014 6th round pick out of Tennessee by the Kansas City Chiefs.  He ran the 40 yard dash in 5.16 seconds and bench pressed 225 pounds 25 times at the 2014 NFL Combine.  Fulton was a year one starter for the Chiefs, and has played 63 games in his career, starting 46, including 6 of 16 games in 2015.  Fulton has thusfar avoided injury, only missing 1 game in his four year career.

Fulton is versatile, which Redskins head coach Jay Gruden likes, having played center and both left and right guard in his professional career.  Fulton is a quality athlete.  He is aggressive player and has been slowly improving his technique throughout his career.  He has good footwork.  Fulton is young and still improving and can grow with a fairly young Redskins offensive line.

Fulton is coming off of his rookie contract and is due a raise.  Given his strong health and youth, if the Redskins believe in Fulton, they could feel confident in a 5 year contract with guarantees at signing in the $7-10M range and average annual value of $3-5M.

Conclusion

It may be that the Redskins are more likely to draft a guard, but in the event the team wants to pursue a free agent, all of these players would be worthy starters.  Adding an elite guard like Andrew Norwell to an already young and talented offensive line would instantly vault this group up to be among the best in the NFL.  The problem, of course is that (as we’ve said on The Hog Sty) the team is already paying Trent Williams and Morgan Moses elite money, and is about to also give Brandon Scherff a similarly high cost extension.  With those kind of outlays for the next several years, the Redskins may not want to commit to a fourth huge contract for the offensive line.  In that event, Pugh is the next best option (understanding his injury history; #depth), but Sitton is also a good option despite his age.  Jack Mewhort is starter worthy, too, and would be a good starter for the group provided he can get past his injury history.

What do you think? Let me know in the comment section below.

 

 

 

[1] All NFL data is courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com and/or www.nfl.com.  Background information is courtesy of Wikipedia.

[2] http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/2013/03/ryan_nassib_headlines_syracuse.html

[3] http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Starting-Guard-Jack-Mewhort-To-Be-Placed-On-Injured-Reserve-With-Knee-Injury/02a17dda-5f6e-4a56-b4d2-d1e7c8671859

[4] http://finheaven.com/threads/nebraska-pro-day.212179/

909 comments