It’s Just Business ep 239: R.I.P. LIV Golf

Chris Larry hosts with Steve Thomas, covering the business side of sports.

1. Prediction markets pitched to institutional investors (Chris at Ripple’s NYC conference)

• On a panel, a Polymarket executive and the founder of a similar startup described sports as a jumping-off point. The startup rushed its launch to be ready for the World Cup, but both companies want to move past sports quickly.
• Both are positioning “event contracts” as an asset class for institutional investors such as pension funds. Chris and Steve were alarmed at the idea of retirement money riding on Oscar dresses, elections, or geopolitical events.
• Steve pointed out that Kalshi sponsors The Daily Wire, which he took as a sign that these platforms are moving into political betting.

2. LIV Golf is dead (2021–2026)

• After the Saudi Public Investment Fund pulled out, LIV filed for bankruptcy. BC Partners then dropped its plan to put in up to $300M, reportedly because LIV didn’t have enough player commitments. LIV told the court it will liquidate.
• The hosts’ view: the model was flawed from the start, with low ratings and attendance, a team format that doesn’t suit golf, and flashiness that missed why fans love the sport. They noted the Saudis spent about $5B over the league’s life.
• They expect the PGA Tour to let players back in after some penance, possibly by re-qualifying through tours like the DP World Tour.
• They called it a case study in business patience. The PGA waited out the 2023 framework deal and won without spending anything.

3. DraftKings stock slide

• After weak Q3 results, the stock fell about 24% to around $17.90, a six-year low and down about 49% for the year. Full-year revenue guidance was cut to $6.35–6.55B.
• DraftKings blames spending on its own prediction market. The hosts think it’s also losing market share to Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Kalshi won a temporary restraining order in federal court in Nevada that blocks the state’s cease-and-desist while the case proceeds. Six states have issued such orders.
• Predictions:
  • Steve thinks DraftKings could slowly fail if the prediction markets keep winning in court.
  • Chris expects the traditional sportsbooks to consolidate into one sports-only winner.
  • Both suspect political influence will decide the outcome.
• Side note: prediction markets called last week’s election accurately where polls often haven’t. Chris credits scale, and they also covered Nate Silver’s background in baseball analytics.

4. NFL guaranteed contracts: the leaked arbitration ruling

• The story is a June 2025 Front Office Sports piece on the 61-page ruling about whether owners colluded after Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed deal. The arbitrator found the evidence insufficient.
• The hosts’ view: owners clearly coordinated, partly through anonymous leaks to the media, but they know how to stay on the right side of legal collusion.
• They also discussed Watson’s improved play this season, Lamar Jackson being underpaid while acting as his own agent, and praise for Todd Monken.

5. Rashee Rice files Chapter 7

• The Chiefs receiver’s debts exceed his entire $6.5M rookie contract, and his listed assets are small. His Super Bowl ring may be sold.
• Steve criticized that the people harmed in his accident and legal cases may go largely uncompensated.