Projecting Washington’s Offensive Production
July 24, 2026
by David Earl
Laying a Baseline
To build a foundation for these player projections, establishing a stable baseline was essential. Rather than isolating any single-season outliers, using each player’s career yards production average over their career plus receiving production providing the most reliable metric of their individual efficiency. These career averages were then calculated directly against the projected output of a David Blough-led offense. Because Blough’s scheme is designed to directly emulate that of Ben Johnson, the overall baseline for total offensive production is anchored in his time as offensive coordinator in Detroit and as a head coach in Chicago.
To determine the volume of this projected offense, the math begins by looking at the exact number of plays Ben Johnson’s units run per game. This total play volume is then broken down by the precise percentage of passing plays called relative to total plays run. I then applyed Johnson’s pass-to-run ratio during this time directly to Blough’s projected offensive output this season. By mapping each player’s career efficiency metric onto this specific baseline resulting in these projections as I utilize each players potential usage within the expected structure of the new offense.
The Backfield Setting Up The Passing Game
While specifically predicting player performance in this new offensive scheme, the running game will be the catalyst of Blough’s newly installed system and will dictate how well the passing game excels. To build a realistic statistical projection for this upcoming season, again career averages for both the quarterback and running back positions will be critical. Now my projections will mostly be conservative as there are truly more questions than answers, Blough will almost certainly need one of these running backs to outperform this projection quite a bit. Of course, Jayden Daniels will be the ultimate wild card because as he did in his rookie year, Daniels can take this entire group to another level and potentially bring Washington’s offense back into a top 10 offense conversation. Here is how I can see the primary backfield components under David Bough’s scheme could shake out with each player carving out a highly specialized role based on their career traits.
Jacory Primary Croskey-Merritt:
- Primary Early-Down Rusher (Majority of Carries)
- I’ve designated Croskey-Merritt as the lead running back on early downs. He is projected to log the majority of the team’s rushing attempts, utilizing his efficient career yards-per-carry baseline to sustain drives and establish the ground game.
- Dynamic Pass-Catcher (Heavy Target Share)
- White will not sit far behind Croskey-Merritt in total touches, but his usage will look vastly different. Applying White’s high-volume career target rates, I am projecting him as a heavily utilized asset in the passing game, acting as a vital safety valve and playmaker in space.
Kaytron Allen:
- Short-Yardage & Goal-Line Specialist
- Allen’s draft position should lock him into earning the primary short-yardage and goal-line role. However, his projection carries a unique trajectory. Based on his career durability and scaling production, Allen could heavily push Croskey-Merritt for a much larger share of the early-down workload during the back half of the season.
The Quarterback is Tricky
While the running back roles feature clearer projection, quarterback Jayden Daniels required a much more conservative, modest approach. The primary variable is obviously David Blough’s offensive scheme.
Under Blough, Daniels projects to operate under center far more frequently than he has in past systems. Because under-center positioning fundamentally alters a quarterback’s passing vision and play-action timing, Daniels’ career collegiate and early professional averages cannot be applied cleanly. Due to this significant schematic question marks, his projected production have been kept intentionally modest until we see how he adapts to this new structural environment. As I dive into each player projections, I have also intentionally not included any rushing production for Daniels as I do not foresee David Blough incorporating many designed runs His rushing production will most likely come from an offensive play breaking down of of Daniels chooses to run off play action passes with nothing open down field.
| Comp % | Attempts | Completions | Yards Per Completion | Yards Passing | TD % | TD Passes | INT % | Int | |
| Jayden Daniels | 66.60% | 549 | 366 | 10.9 | 3985 | 4.94% | 27 | 1.80% | 10 |
| YPC | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 4.1 | 175 | 718 | 9 | 51 | 362 | 3 |
| Rachaad White | 3.9 | 135 | 527 | 4 | 15 | 114 | 1 |
| Kaytron Allen | 4 | 137 | 548 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4.5 | 44 | 198 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| YPR | Targets | Catch % | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs | Target % | |
| Terry McLaurin | 14.0 | 171 | 63.0% | 108 | 1508 | 9 | 48% |
| Antonio Williams | 10.1 | 75 | 75.6% | 57 | 571 | 3 | 21% |
| Treylon Burks | 13.2 | 43 | 55.3% | 24 | 312 | 1 | 12% |
| Luke McCaffrey | 12.8 | 18 | 63.0% | 11 | 144 | 1 | 5% |
| Dyami Brown | 12.8 | 32 | 57.2% | 18 | 235 | 2 | 9% |
| Van Jefferson | 13.4 | 11 | 55.7% | 6 | 80 | 1 | 3% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 10.4 | 81 | 71.6% | 58 | 603 | 4 | 14% |