2026 Road to the Draft – Part 15

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April 20, 2026

By Noonefromtampa

Draft Coverage

The first round of the draft starts on Thursday night at 8 p.m. on ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network, each with different crews providing analysis on each channel. Rounds 2 and 3 are 7 p.m. on Friday night, with rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday starting at noon.

Those of you who like non-traditional options, The Pat McAfee Show Draft Spectacular with special guest Bill Cowher will be on YouTube, TikTok and X.

Draft Data

This week, there was an increase of 30 in the number of mocks being tracked, which rose to 341. Sixty-two percent of mock pick data occurred in last few weeks. The distribution for Washington by position is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
Edge 90 26.39% 29.58% -3.19%
S 63 18.48% 17.36% 1.11%
RB 63 18.48% 19.94% -1.46%
WR 52 15.25% 12.22% 3.03%
LB 46 13.49% 12.54% 0.95%
CB 18 5.28% 5.79% -0.51%
OT 7 2.05% 1.93% 0.12%
IOL 1 0.29% 0.32% -0.03%
TE 1 0.29% 0.00% 0.29%
DL 0 0.00% 0.32% -0.32%
QB 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 341 100%  

The big winner this week was wide receiver, while edge rusher was the big loser. Some mockers switched from running back to safety as many prognosticators are expecting Jeremiyah Love to go in the top 5 picks. They see Caleb Downs as a more likely choice for Washington. Defensive line dropped off, while tight end was added due to a trade back scenario predicted for the Commanders.

Washington holds the 7th pick in the first round. The players mocked to Washington with that pick are:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Caleb Downs S Ohio State 63 18.48%
Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame 63 18.48%
Rueben Bain Edge Miami 48 14.08%
Carnell Tate WR Ohio State 41 12.02%
David Bailey Edge Texas Tech 38 11.14%
Sonny Styles LB Ohio State 36 10.56%
Mansoor Delane CB LSU 18 5.28%
Arvell Reese LB Ohio State 10 2.93%
Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State 6 1.76%
Francis Mauigoa OT Miami 5 1.47%
Makai Lemon WR USC 3 0.88%
Keldric Faulk Edge Auburn 3 0.88%
Spencer Fano OT Utah 1 0.29%
Akheem Mesidor Edge Miami 1 0.29%
Kenyon Sadiq TE Oregon 1 0.29%
Olaivavega Ioane IOL Penn State 1 0.29%
Omar Cooper Jr. WR Indiana 1 0.29%
Monroe Freeling OT Georgia 1 0.29%
Kevin Concepcion WR Texas A&M 1 0.29%
Grand Total 341 100.00%

Love and Downs are now tied at the top spot. Bain moved ahead of Bailey who dropped to the fifth spot.  Carnell Tate made a big jump from sixth, also passing Bailey. Sonny Styles dropped to the sixth spot.

Three new players made the board this week, Omar Cooper Jr., Akheem Mesidor and Kenyon Sadig. All of those picks come from trade down scenarios where the Commanders move back to the 14th pick to 16th pick range. In those scenarios, Washington generally gets picks in the first, second and fourth rounds for their first-round pick.

One of the common remarks from draft analysts is that this draft has few obvious blue-chip (elite player) prospects but has a wide band of gold-chip [some team use the color green] (solid starter) ones. Trading back to get be able to select more “gold” level players makes sense if you can find a trade partner.

Right beofre the draft, I like to look at the past months’ worth of mock draft data, weeding out the oldest data. This covers 90% of the picks made in that time period.

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame 47 22.17%
Caleb Downs S Ohio State 40 18.87%
Carnell Tate WR Ohio State 28 13.21%
Rueben Bain Edge Miami 25 11.79%
Sonny Styles LB Ohio State 23 10.85%
Mansoor Delane CB LSU 14 6.60%
David Bailey Edge Texas Tech 13 6.13%

Viewing the data through this focal point shows three strata of data emerge.

  1. The most likely picks are Love or Downs
  2. The second group consists of Tate, Bain and Styles
  3. The outside chance group is Delane or Bailey

We will found out how it all plays out on Thursday night sometime between 9:20 and 9:50 ET.

Draft Thoughts

The “Captain Obvious” statement is that who Washington picks at 7 depends on what happens with the first six picks.

Here are my takes on Washington in the draft:

  • The order of the draft may change dramatically if Dallas or another team moves ahead of Washington.
  • If Styles or Love is on the board, Washington drafts them
  • If those two are gone already, Washington attempts to trade back
  • If Washington cannot trade back, they “settle” for Tate or Downs whoever is higher on their draft board

Other overall draft takes:

  • I think the Cardinals would like to trade back and take Ty Simpson lower in the first round and get some additional picks
  • There will be a run on wide receivers and tackles at some point in round one. Those positions are deeper than other ones.
  • I think the Jets do some moving around because they have the capital and need some really good talent with the cap problems they have.

There are a number of Commanders content creators on social media who are very split over the notion of Washington trading back in the first round. There are two points of view that get argued over and the linchpin of those arguments is how the draft is valued.

Viewpoint 1 is that Washington should do not trade back if a blue-chip player is on the board when a team picks. If Love, Bailey, Bain or Styles in there then the team should take that player because they shouldn’t pass on elite-level talent.

Viewpoint 2 is that the Commanders roster need an influx of young talent and they only have two picks in the first four rounds of the draft. The other part of this argument is that there is not a large talent difference between players at the top of several position groups. For instance, if Washington trades back, they can still get a starting caliber wide receiver but now may also be able to add another starter in the secondary or at center. You can make the same trade back argument for the cornerback position. Take a corner later in round 1 and still draft a good wide receiver in round 2.

Stay put or trade back? Put your thoughts in the comments below.

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com