2026 NFL Divisional Round Preview

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January 17, 2026

by Steve Thomas

Welcome to the Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL playoffs, everyone.  Wildcard weekend was full of exciting games, so let’s hope that this week brings the same.  Our weekend preview is below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Denver Broncos (14 – 3; 1st, AFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. New England Patriots (14 – 3; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13 – 4; 1st, AFC South)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 1st, AFC North)
  5. Houston Texans (12 – 5; 2nd, AFC South)
  6. Buffalo Bills (12 – 5; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC West)

NFC

  1. Seattle Seahawks (14 – 3; 1st, NFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Chicago Bears (11 – 6; 1st, NFC North)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (11 – 6; 1st, NFC East)
  4. Carolina Panthers (8 – 9, 1st, NFC South)
  5. Los Angeles Rams (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC West)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (12 – 5; 3rd, NFC West)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9 – 7 – 1; 2nd, NFC North)

2026 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 17

4:30 p.m. ET – Buffalo Bills (#6) at Denver Broncos (#1) (CBS)

8:00 p.m. ET – San Francisco 49ers (#6) at Seattle Seahawks (#1) (FOX)

Sunday, Jan. 18

3:00 p.m. ET – Houston Texans (#5) at New England Patriots (#2) (ESPN, ABC)

6:30 p.m. ET – Los Angeles Rams (#5) at Chicago Bears (#2) (NBC, Peacock)

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 25

AFC (CBS)

FOX (FOX)

Super Bowl LX

Sunday, Feb. 8

6:30 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California (NBC, Telemundo, Peacock)

Halftime Show – another rapper half the country doesn’t want to watch, because the NFL doesn’t understand people sometimes want something besides R&B or rap #fire Jay-Z  Bad Bunny

Game Previews

Buffalo Bills (#6) at Denver Broncos (#1)

Early line: Bills, -1.5

On offense, the Broncos scored 401 points this season, which is ranked 14th.  Quarterback Bo Nix completed 388 of 612 pass attempts, for a 63.4% completion percentage, 3931 yards, and 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, for a quarterback rating of 87.8.  As a team, Denver rushed for an average of 4.4 yards per carry, which was tied for 15th in the NFL.  On defense, the Broncos surrendered 311 points, which was third-least in the NFL.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 78.7, which was ranked 5th.  On the ground, opposing defenses rushed for an average of 3.9 yards per carry, which was tied for 5th.

The Bills scored 481 points this season, which was tied for 5th in the league.  Quarterback Josh Allen posted a 102.2 quarterback rating and rushed for 579 yards.  As a team, Buffalo averaged 5.0 yards per carry, which was the second-best in the NFL.  On defense, Buffalo gave up 365 points, which was ranked 12th.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 79.8, which was ranked 7th.  On the ground, the Bills gave up 5.1 yards per carry, which was ranked just 30th in the NFL.

The Bills and Broncos did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

I don’t believe in Josh Allen enough to predict an upset.  The Broncos are the #1 see for a reason, and will win a close game, 27 – 24.

San Francisco 49ers (#6) at Seattle Seahawks (#1) 

Early line: Seahawks, -7

Offensively, the Seahawks is one of the more prolific offenses in the NFL, with a total of 483 points scored, which is ranked third.  Quarterback Sam Darnold posted a 67.6% completion percentage in 17 games this season, which put the Seattle as a team in fifth place in the NFL.  Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the NFL’s leading receivers, with 119 receptions in 163 targets, for 1793 yards (tops in the league) and 10 touchdowns.  As a team, the Seahawks averaged just 4.1 yards per carry on the ground; however, starting running back Kenneth Walker III had 1027 yards in 221 attempts, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  As a result, the Seahawks are very balanced and capable on offense, and represent a serious challenge to every opponent.  Defensively, they surrendered 292 points this season, the best in the NFL, and allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a combined 62.5% completion percentage and a 77.9 quarterback rating, ranked 4th.  Their rushing defense is the best in the NFL, surrendering just 3.7 yards per carry.  The Seahawks are the top seed in the NFC for a reason.

Between Mac Jones and Brock Purdy at quarterback, the 49ers have had a high quality offense, having scored 437 points, which is ranked 10th, with elite passing numbers in terms of completion percentage, at 69.3%, which is ranked 3rd, 33 passing touchdowns, ranked 4th, and a combined quarterback rating of 98.8, ranked 6th.  Purdy reportedly suffered a stinger in the 49ers’ week 18 game against the Seahawks, but should start this game.  Their running game has been terrible, with a team average of 3.8 yards per carry, ranked 30th.  Superstar Christian McCaffrey had 1202 rushing, but that total is more of a volume result than anything else, because he did that with 311 attempts (most in the NFL), which equates to 3.9 yards per attempt.  He is also the team’s leading receiver, with 102 receptions in 129 attempts, for 924 yards.  Translation for the opposing defense: focus on stopping McCaffrey at all costs.  Defensively, the 49ers have been middle of the road, with 371 points surrendered, ranked 13tb.  Their passing defense has not been good, with opposing offenses achieving a 68.2% completion percentage, ranked 28th.  San Francisco has a fairly average run defense – opponents averaged 4.3 yards per carry, tied for 20th.  Generally speaking, the 49ers beat the teams they should have beaten this season, with their only losses coming against the Jaguars, Buccaneers, Texans, Rams, and Seahawks.

The 49ers defeated the Seahawks in week 1 by a score of 17 – 13, but Seattle won the second game in week 18, 13 – 3.

Steve’s prediction:

The 49ers are missing George Kittle, and the Seahawks feature one of the NFL’s best defenses.  Seattle wins, 30 – 20.

Houston Texans (#5) at New England Patriots (#2)

Early line: Patriots, -2.5

The Patriots scored 490 points this season, which was the second-most in the NFL.  Quarterback Drake Maye had the best quarterback rating in the league, at 113.5, plus the highest completion percentage at 72.0.  On the ground, the Patriots averaged 4.4 yards per carry, ranked 15th.  On defense, New England gave up 320 points, ranked 4th.  Opponents averaged 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, which was tied for 13th in the NFL.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 93.1, which was ranked 21st.

 

The Houston Texans went 10 – 1 to finish the regular season.  They scored a total of 404 points, ranked 13th.  Quarterback C.J. Stroud had a quarterback rating of 92.9.  They are not a great rushing team, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, ranked 9th.  On defense, they gave up just 295 points, which was second-best in the league.  On the ground, opponents averaged 4.0 yards per carry, tied for 9th.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of just 76.2, third-best in the NFL.

Steve’s prediction:

After last week, I feel like I have no choice but to believe in the Texans’ defense.  This one is the upset of the weekend.  Houston wins, 24 – 17.

Los Angeles Rams (#5) at Chicago Bears (#2) 

Early line: Rams, -4.5

The Bears scored 441 points this season, which was ranked 9th in the NFL  On the ground, Chicago averaged 4.9 yards per carry, which was 3rd in the league.  Quarterback Caleb Williams posted a quarterback rating of 90.1 this season.  On defense, the Bears surrendered 415 points, which was ranked 23rd.  On the ground, the Bears gave up an average of 5.0 yards per carry, ranked 29th, and opposing quarterbacks posted a combined quarterback rating of 91.4, which was ranked 16th.

The Rams had the #1 scoring offense in the NFL this year, and quarterback Jared Goff had a quarterback rating of 109.2.  They are also a talented rushing team, having averaged 4.6 yards per carry, which was tied for 9th in the league.  Receiver Puka Nacua led the league in number of receptions, with 129.  Running back Kyren Williams had 259 rushing attempts for 1252 yards, which was 4.8 yards per carry.  On defense, the Rams surrendered 346 points, which was ranked 10th.  Opposing quarterbacks earned an 87.0 quarterback rating, ranked 9th.  They were more middle of the road in rushing defense, with opposing offenses having averaged 4.3 yards per carry, ranked 19th.

The Rams and Bears did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

This one is a bit of a pick ‘em to me, even though Vegas doesn’t believe so. I think Caleb Williams gets the job done.  Chicago wins 20 – 17.