2024 Season Questions

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June 6, 2024

By Noonefromtampa

This week The Hog Sty will answer questions from our fictitious mailbag.

Dear Hog Sty, I am long-suffering Redskins-Football Team-Commanders’ fan. What should my expectations of success be for this season with all the new coaches and players?

According to the ESPN NFL Football Power Index, based on the 10,000 computer simulations, the expected win-loss for the Commanders is 6.7-10.2. So, their best case is a 7-10 season, according to ESPN, with a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs. Las Vegas oddsmakers have the win total over/under at 6.5 wins. On the surface things do not look too positive, 2 to 3 more wins over last season is the basic expectations.

However, as in all sports you have to play the games and, in a game, anything can happen. There are several keys to how well the Commanders will do in 2024.

  • How well will Jayden Daniels perform in his first year? Everyone saw what C.J. Stroud meant to the Texans last year. Can Daniels have a similar effect on the Commanders? If the answer is yes, then that might add one to two wins to the base total.
  • Can the defense play well and stop other teams on a regular basis? Last year the defense could not get off the field in a number of games. They got tired, gave up too many big plays and let other teams score too easily. If the defense can be a top 16 defense instead of bottom 16 defense, that will uptick the win total as well.
  • Lastly, a new potential impact has come up. The kicker position has gone from mostly reliable to a question mark. Brandon McManus was released, and unknown Ramiz Ahmed was signed. The reality is the week 1 kicker will probably be someone cut by another team. Not having a solid kicker in the NFL can cost a team a game or two over the course of a season. That is something that could drive the win total down for this team as most people expect a lot of close games during the season.

So, in summary, expect the win total to between 6 and 9 games.

Dear Hog Sty, What kind of defense is this team going to run?

The real answer is nobody will know until the season starts, but we can extrapolate based on what types of schemes Dan Quinn has run in the past. If you follow football closely, when Quinn was the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks, they used primarily a Cover-3 shell scheme. He evolved that with other cover schemes when he was at the Falcons as head coach. When you looked at what the Cowboys did the last few years under Quinn, you see they mixed-up coverages between Cover-1, 2 and 3 along with man and man-match coverages. Cover-3 was the primary coverage but a key to a good defense is to disguise the actual coverage the quarterback is going to see as long as possible pre-snap and then to put pressure on the quarterback once the play starts. That is the best way to force quarterbacks into making a mistake and getting a turnover.

But no scheme works without execution by the players and some players will have to step up to make the defense better. Frankie Luvu will probably take on the Micah Parsons role of the disruptor on defense, lining up all over the field trying to make plays. Either Jonathan Allen or Daron Payne needs to get inside pressure, while Dorance Armstrong or Dante Fowler Jr. will need to bring the outside pressure. In the secondary, there are probably three key players who need to perform well, Mike Davis, Quan Martin and Mike Sainristil. Davis will need to fill the role of the number one cornerback covering the opposing team’s best receiver. Quan Martin will probably play multiple roles in different schemes, such as the underneath “plug” and “robber” roles in Cover-1 schemes taking away underneath crossing or mesh routes. He is good-sized, lanky and a hard hitter which is what you need in those roles. Sainristil will be key at the slot corner which can be one of the more aggressive positions in Quinn’s defense. In that role, Sainristil will have responsibility to take on the “hot read” receivers when additional pressure is applied in the pass rush. Sainristil is an aggressive type of player, well suited for that role.