Draft Preview 2024: Quarterbacks, Part 1
April 15, 2024
by Steve Thomas
Well, folks, we’ve finally reached the end of the annual draft marathon, almost. This year, we saved the best for last, since Washington is in the unusual position of both having a gaping hole at quarterback and the second overall pick. This therefore represents a confluence of circumstances wherein the Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders Washington has a chance to solve a major, long-term problem. The team has been here before, of course, without success, but hopefully this year will be different. Given the circumstances, I spent a significant amount of time on the top quarterbacks, so I went into more detail here than I normally would on a draft preview. As a result, the final product ended up being way too long for a single column. Therefore, we’re going run part 1 today, which will be the quarterbacks I’ve ranked as #5 through #10, plus the remaining prospects, and then run Part 2 with the top 4 prospects on Wednesday. This was a major undertaking, so enjoy and feel free to leave me your thoughts in the comment section below.
Executive Summary
#5 – J.J. McCarthy
#6 – Spencer Rattler
#7 – Bo Nix
#8 – Jordan Travis
#9 – Michael Pratt
#10 – Joe Milton
My breakout on each player is below:
#5: J.J. McCarthy (6’2” ½ / 219): McCarthy is originally from Cook County, Illinois. He spent three years at the University of Michigan and played a total of 40 games between 2021 and 2023. He earned the starting job in 2022, with 29 starts. In total, he completed 482 passes in 713 attempts, for a 67.6% completion percentage, 6226 yards, 49 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In 2023, he played 15 games, going 240 for 332, for a 72.3% completion percentage, 2991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He was named the Big Ten Quarterback of the Year and earned First-team All-Big Ten honors.
At the NFL Combine, McCarthy ran the three cone drill in 6.82 seconds and the 20-yard shuttle in 4.23 seconds. He did not run the 40 at the Combine; however, his 40 time was rumored to be 4.48 seconds before the start of the 2023 season.
McCarthy appears to be a classic short to mid-range quarterback in the NFL. He is accurate and mostly sees the field well, and can put good touch on the ball depending on the situation. McCarthy also played out of a variety of classic, NFL-style formations, which bodes well for his ability to transition to the professional game. He can progress through all of his reads. He relies heavily on rollouts and can find the open man while on the move. McCarthy makes the occasional highlight reel short to mid-range throw in which he threads the needle as would a quality professional. He’s also fairly athletic and can run when he needs to.
His principal downside is his deep ball. He lacks accuracy and floats the ball too much. Fortunately, Michigan didn’t call too many deep balls. McCarthy also has a bit of a windup to his throwing motion which can cause his ball to come out late. He also occasionally fixates on his first read. McCarthy looks a bit thin by NFL quarterback standards, although not dramatically so. He sometimes makes crazy, dangerous pass attempts, mostly while on the move. Those worked out at Michigan, for the most part, but that may be a different story in the NFL. In addition, he’s fairly inexperienced compared to other quarterbacks in this year’s class.
McCarthy won’t be good in a vertically-focused NFL offense. He’s probably a best fit for a west coast offense that won’t require him to use big 5 and 7 step drop backs and wait for deep routes. He’s likely destined to become a decent but not great NFL starting quarterback.
Draft prediction: middle of round 1 or higher. He’s probably going to be overdrafted more than others.
Steve’s recommendation: rounds 2 – 3
#6: Spencer Rattler (6’0” / 211): Rattler, originally from Arizona, played for the University of Oklahoma from 2019 – 2021 before transferring to the University of South Carolina for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, although he redshirted his 2019 true freshman year. In five seasons, Rattler played in 48 games, starting in 2020 and 2021 before being benched for Caleb Williams, and then started in 2022 and 2023 for the Gamecocks. In total, he completed 900 of 1313 pass attempts, for a 68.5% completion percentage, 10,807 yards, 77 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions. He earned First-team All-Big 12 honors in 2020 while at Oklahoma.
Rattler fully participated in the NFL Combine and ran the 40 yard dash in 4.95 seconds and the 20-yard shuttle in 4.37 seconds, and jumped 32 inches in the vertical leap and 9’0” in the standing broad jump.
Rattler is below the desired height for an NFL quarterback, but doesn’t have a slim build and won’t look like he doesn’t belong on an NFL team. He has alot of positive qualities to his game: he is unafraid to try to fit the ball into tight windows at all levels, including deep, regularly looks downfield, and is a good playmaker. He is fairly accurate with his passes, especially when he has adequate time. In addition, South Carolina’s receivers were not at a professional level and regularly dropped balls, which hurt his stats. On the negative side, Rattler regularly stares down his receivers, thereby telegraphing his throws. He mostly got away with this in college, but unless he changes this habit in the NFL, his interception rate could be high. Also, Rattler’s mechanics tend to fall apart under pressure, and he doesn’t have a good sense of when and how to climb the pocket to avoid pressure.
Rattler definitely has his negatives, but he has a certain fearless quality to his game that should translate into an NFL career, even if he never reaches plus-level starter status.
Draft prediction: round 4
Steve’s recommendation: round 4
#7: Bo Nix (6’2” / 214): Nix attended high school in Arkansas and was originally recruited to play for Auburn, where he stayed for three seasons. He then transferred to Oregon for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In total, he played 61 games in three seasons, and completed 1286 of 1936 pass attempts, for a 66.4% completion percentage, 15,352 yards, 113 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions. In 2023, Nix played 14 games, with 364 completions in 470 attempts, for a 77.4% completion percentage, 4508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and earned First-team All Pac-12 honors.
At 6’2”, Nix isn’t overly tall by NFL quarterback standards but has a thick build that will serve him well as a pro. He is a master of short, quick passes. At times, he demonstrated good arm strength. However, Nix’s short passing habit is almost a negative. It may be a function of Oregon’s offense, but his usual method of moving the offense are flat passes behind the line of scrimmage and dump offs to the flats. He doesn’t often go over the middle to the mid or deep levels of the field. In addition, Nix’s footwork, balance, and throwing motion is inconsistent. Nix looks the part, to a certain extent, but my fear is that his success is a function of Oregon’s offensive system more than anything. He is a player who probably needs time to adjust to the NFL instead of being thrown in as a starter.
Draft prediction: round 3
Steve’s recommendation: round 4
Day 3 prospects:
#8: Jordan Travis (6’1” / 200): 23 years old, 6 seasons, including one with Louisville, 5 at Florida St., 637 of 1027 attempts for 8715 yards, 62.0% completion percentage, 66 touchdowns, 20 interceptions. 2023: 207 of 324 attempts, 2756 yards, 63.9% completion percentage, 20 touchdowns, 2 interceptions. Serious ankle injury against North Alabama on November 18, 2023, but will reportedly has recovered well and be cleared soon. So-so accuracy, mostly good mechanics, average arm strength. Sometimes has problems deep. Accuracy can suffer under pressure more than some others. Does progress through his reads but not as quickly as necessary in the NFL. Has the look of an NFL backup quarterback.
#9: Michael Pratt (6’2” ½ / 217): 4 seasons at Tulane, 46 games, 4 year starter, 730 of 1204 attempts, 9,611 yards, 60.6% completion percentage, 90 touchdowns, 26 interceptions. 2023: 185 of 283 attempts, 2406 yards, 65.4% completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. Classic pocket passer but has some athletic ability. NFL-level arm strength. Inconsistent mechanics; strange footwork. Sometimes waits too long to make a decision – he can get away with that at Tulane, but will need to get better in the NFL. Low-level college competition.
#10: Joe Milton (6’5” / 244): 6 total seasons, including 3 with Michigan and 3 with Tennessee. 43 total games, 400 of 650 attempts for 5353 yards, 61.5% completion percentage, 37 TDs, 11 interceptions. 2023: 229 for 354, 2813 yards, 64.7% completion percentage, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. Strong arm, good size, very mobile considering his size. Stares down receivers, almost never goes through his reads. Rarely even gets past his first read. Doesn’t climb the pocket under pressure. Looks like a college quarterback with a cannon for an arm, not a pro quarterback. The idea of Joe Milton is better than the reality of Joe Milton. Will need development in the NFL. May be overdrafted because of his arm and size.
Others, probable undrafted free agents (alphabetical order; unranked):
Sam Hartman (6’1” / 211): 5 years at Wake Forest, 1 at Notre Dame. 1135 of 1898 attempts for 15,656 yards, 59.8% completion percentage, 134 touchdowns, 49 interceptions. Inaccurate; has mechanics problems. Lacks arm strength. High number of interceptions and accuracy issues.
Devin Leary (6’1” / 215): 4 years at North Carolina St., 1 at Kentucky. 43 games, 777 of 1315 attempts for 9553 yards, 59.1% completion percentage, 87 touchdowns, 28 interceptions. Inaccurate.
Austin Reed (6’1” ½ / 220): 24 years old. Started at Southern Illinois in 2018, then transferred to West Florida in 2019 and stayed for 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons. Transferred to Western Kentucky for 2022 and 2023 seasons. At Western Kentucky, played 26 games, 678 of 1073 attempts for 8086 yards, 64.2% completion percentage, 71 touchdowns, 22 interceptions.
Kedon Slovis (6’2” ½ / 223): At USC for 2019, 2020, 2021, then transferred to Pitt for 2022, then to BYU for 2023. 5 year starter. Played 46 games, 989 of 1534 attempts for 11,689 yards, 64.5% completion percentage, 80 touchdowns, 39 interceptions. Weak arm, inaccurate.
Taulia Tagovailoa (5’10” / 200): Local hero. 5 seasons, including 1 at Alabama, 4 at Maryland. 67.1% career completion percentage. Has some talent but is too small for serious NFL play.