Burgundy & Gold Reaction: The Great Draft Debate – QB or OL?

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December 27, 2023

by David Earl

The 2024 Draft Debate Has Begun

The debate has begun on whether Washington should draft a quarterback or offensive tackle with the projected number three overall pick, with a few fans advocating for a trade back. For the most part, each side has some compelling arguments and there doesn’t seem to be an absolute best answer. Yes, the offensive line has been a disaster all year with zero upside players on the line beyond Samuel Cosmi. It’s true the offensive line gets minimal help from Eric Bieniemy‘s playcalling plus, and maybe most importantly, Sam Howell‘s inconsistency doesn’t help. While Howell has made some rather big-time NFL throws and has shown some improvements, his decision-making has also led to some backbreaking plays on offense.

Even though it’s true that the offensive line has allowed Howell to be the most hit-and-sacked quarterback in the league, he also has not helped this unit with his inconsistent progressions and reads that have led to many bad sacks being taken. Given all of this, how do we determine the best direction for the 2024 NFL draft? Build the trenches then find the quarterback or take this opportunity to draft in the top 5 and get the quarterback now? Here are just a few comments on a topic that is being heavily debated among the fan base.

Starting with a Little Team History

I refuse to hold this new ownership and future front office hostage to the sins of the past regime, which was the core definition of absolute failure. I will, however, utilize this organization’s draft history and overall team success dating back to the 2000 season. For the last 24 years, this team has managed a winning percentage of .410, and has had only 1 playoff win in just 5 postseason trips. For 18 of those years, Washington had two of the game’s top left tackles Chris Samuels (2000-2009) and Trent Williams (2010-2018), each of whom having been drafted in the first round. Brandon Scherff, who converted into a Pro Bowl right guard, was the only other tackle drafted in round 1 since the 2000 season. Other significant offensive linemen drafted since the 2000 season were C Chase Roullier, who was drafted in the 6th round and started 63 games, G Derrick Dockery, who was drafted in the 3rd round and started 115 games, T Morgan Moses, who was also drafted in the 3rd round and started 142 games, T/G Samuel Cosmi, a 2nd round pick who has started 30 games, and T Tom Compton, who was a 6th round draft pick and started 44 games.

Even with two elite left tackles and an offensive line that was solid to very good over the years until Ron Rivera‘s gross mismanagement of this unit, the team failed to produce and it starts with the quarterback play. Since the 2000 season Washington ihas nvested a 1st round pick in this position on three occasions, Patrick Ramsey (Pick 32 overall), Jason Campbell (pick 25 overall), Robert Griffin III (Pick 2 overall), and Dwayne Haskins (Pick 15 overall). Robert Griffin III was the most immediate impact player of the three until injuries and poor team management quickly brought his tenure to an end.  Jason Campbell was a steady 4-year starter but hardly a franchise quarterback, and Patrick Ramsey was simply a disaster. All I’ll say about Dwayne Haskins is his mishandling by this organization exemplifies just how terrible at developing quarterbacks Washington was under the previous ownership (Rest In Peace Dwayne). With these four quarterbacks as starters,, the team had a 59-92 record, which is a a .391 winning percentage, with a combined one playoff appearance, which was a loss losing to Seattle.

Of the 7 remaining drafted quarterbacks before Sam Howell, Kirk Cousins, a 4th round pick, was the only who who had a significant impact on the team. In his six years with Washington, he accrued a 26-30-1 record as a starter with one playoff appearance, which was a loss to Green Bay. He benefited from one of the better offensive lines during this span and some prolific wide receivers but his reputation in the bigger games, whether fair or not, was not very favorable. As a 4th round pick, Cousins outperformed his draft position and was arguably the best quarterback Washington has drafted over the last 24 years.

What does this say about Washington from a draft perspective? Not much in terms of draft success and player development, especially regarding the quarterback position. What it does speak to is that there is no true absolute direction they should go with their first-round pick in the 2024 draft. Whatever direction the new regime takes, they must have to have more hits than misses through the draft, and player development has to be far better than under previous ownership. So let’s take this one step further from a league-wide perspective.

League-Wide Investment Drafting Quarterbacks

As pointed out by Warren Sharp, since 2011, which the new wages scale scale for rookies drafted in the first round was put in place, teams drafted 38 quarterbacks. The overall team record under these quarterbacks is 1034-1035-7, and only one has won a Super Bowl during this span Patrick Mahomes. Once again, there is no definitive absolute answer on whether to draft a quarterback in the first round or not, particularly afterseeing these results since 2011 at face value. Let’s go another step further as the ultimate goal is a Super Bowl Championship.

Since the 2011 season, nine quarterbacks drafted in the first round (including those drafted before 2011) have played in the Super Bowl, with a few appearing multiple times. That is compared to 6 drafted outside the first round, with the greatest of all time in Tom Brady anchoring this group. The likelihood of finding another late-round star like Brady is rare and can be looked at as more of an anomaly. Of these winners of the Super Bowl, 5 first-round picks won the ultimate prize, while 3 were outside the first round of the draft. Just to add a little more perspective, out of the 6 drafted beyond the first round, only two (Colin Kaepernick and Jalen Hurts) were drafted in the second round. Even with this perspective, there is no true absolute on directing in the draft, but it does add a slight lean towards drafting a quarterback in round one. Does that mean drafting an elite prospect offensive lineman is acceptable?

Priority of Elite Prospect OL over Quarterback?

While there is still no true definitive direction thus far for offensive linemen over a quarterback, let’s look at some more recent directions from teams. We will stick with the time frame of 2011 until the present and see the direction of these teams through a bit of a different lens. I’ll use a few names drafted not only in the first round but later as well and correlate these players with their respective team’s priority towards draft investment on first-round offensive linemen drafted. I will start with the most popular name used by the fans today, Joe Burrow, while sticking to each player’s respective teams who made the Super Bowl. Also, Tom Brady will not be included and the names used will represent the teams who originally drafted them.

Joe Burrow, Cinncinati (First Round)

  • Number 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft.
  • The offensive line ranked 30th in the 2019 season with not one player graded among the top 50% of the respective positions.
  • Drafted a total of five offensive linemen in the previous 3 drafts, with C Billy Price and G Jonah Williams, who converted to tackle, drafted in the first round. Behind a 30th-ranked offensive line in 2020, Burrow was sacked 32 times, which was the second-highest in the NFL. Jonah Williams received the only grade above 70.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (First Round)

  • Drafted 10th overall in the 2017 draft.
  • Their offensive unit was the 14th-ranked unit in the 2016 season, which was just above average, but not great.
  • The Chiefs drafted a total of four offensive linemen in the previous 3 drafts. Guard Mitch Morse was their highest pick in the second round of the 2015 draft. In Mahomes’ second season, his first as a starter, he was sacked 26 times, which was the 22nd least in the league, behind a 13th-ranked unit that had multiple injuries ,in the interior throughout the season. Kansas City fell one game short of the Super Bowl losing to the New England Patriots.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (Second Round)

  • Drafted 53rd overall in the 2020 draft.
  • This situation is fairly unique. He was drafted to a team with the top-ranked offensive line in the 2019 season, and which already had a player who was thought to be a franchise quarterback, Carson Wentz. When the Eagles drafted Wentz as the number 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, their offensive line ranked 12th the previous season.
  • In the previous 3 drafts the Eagles drafted only 1 offensive lineman. In 2013 draft, they took perennial All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson and nothing else. In the same year Wentz was drafted, 2 of the next 3 picks after his selection addressed the offensive line. Also, their current left tackle Jordan Mailata drafted in the 7th round of the 2018 draft.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (Drafted Third Round)

  • Drafted 53rd overall in the 2012 draft.
  • The 2011 Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranked 29th worst in the league.
  • Entering the 2012 draft, after a terrible season by their unit, they didn’t even address the offensive line with their first 2 picks before selecting Russell Wilson. The previous seasons they selected 4 offensive linemen, all within the first two rounds of the draft. The most notable selection was T Russell Okung, who was selected with the 6th pick of the 2010 draft.

Unpacking All This Information

The selection of Russell Wilson shows that even after spending high draft assets on the offensive line there are just no guarantees in trying to develop a unit that is ready to protect a franchise rookie quarterback. Does that diminish the idea of going offensive tackle first in the 2024 draft? Absolutely not, because the Russell Wilson scenario also proves you can take a later-round quarterback and build a contender around him. However, the Seahawks are also a bad example as well, because Wilson had to play behind a porous offensive line for much of the early part of his career. It wasn’t until the Seahawks’ 2016 draft that they drafted a first-round lineman in G Germain Ifedi. Jalen Hurts just came into the perfect scenario in Philadelphia and ended up being the missing piece to a contender for which the Eagles had not expected. With Patrick Mahomes just being a special breed of talented quarterback, let’s skip to the popular discussion point, Joe Burrow.

The Bengals drafted former first overall selection was drafted even though they had one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and despite the fact that Jonah Williams was not progressing as well as they wanted. The Bengals, like Washington today, have not had a true franchise quarterback in decades, with Andy Dalton being an admirable starter the previous 9 years. Yes, Dalton made the position far more stable than Washington’s over the years, but he was winless (0-4) in the playoffs and had an average quarterback rating in the playoffs, 57.8. Even with an abysmal offensive line after the 2019 season, they passed on top-ranked tackle prospect Andrew Thomas for a projected franchise-changing quarterback. It wasn’t until two seasons after drafting Burrow that the Bengals’ offensive line began to improve through the draft and free agency.

Conclusion

For a great detailed breakdown of early first-round pick selection success rate a column published by The Hog Sty in 2020 regarding the top 10 draft selection success. You’ll notice a quarterback in the top 10 does not always work out, but that shouldn’t deter the new regime from selecting their quarterback early. As I have shown a terrible offensive line unit should not necessarily dictate whether a team should select a quarterback.  If Washington’s new front office puts together a competent scouting staff and evaluates talent appropriately, they can surely find offensive line help past the first round. While drafting an elite-level offensive tackle with their top pick in the 2024 draft is justifiable, if they are faced with “Their Guy” at quarterback they need to seriously consider making that pick.

Like the Bengals before Joe Burrow, Washington is in a position where their level of quarterback play over the years was not nearly good enough to push them deep into the playoffs. Like the Bengals, it might be in Washington’s best interest to attempt to solidify the most important position in football, then build around him immediately after that selection like the Eagles did after drafting Wentz. There is no true absolute sure-fire direction to go but, considering this team’s history, this might be the year to address the offensive line later in order to take a big swing on a potential franchise quarterback. Yes, they can attempt to build around Sam Howell, for all those Howell fans, but discussion of that option, as well as potentially trading back can be reserved for another time. For purposes of this discussion, I lean towards drafting a quarterback in round one and addressing the offensive line in the next few rounds and free agency.