Washington Week 7 and 11 Opponent: New York Giants

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August 11, 2023

by David Earl

New York Giants Offseason

Keeping Daniel Jones was key for the Giants; not necessarily for his talent, but for continuity in the most important position in the game. There wasn’t any form of elite play from Jones but we saw growth and a player that fit well within the scheme. From 2021 to 2022, Jones lowered his interception percentage by .8%, increased his touchdown percentage by .4%, and completed 3.1% more of his passes, finishing with a 3.7 point higher quarterback rating. These improvements may not jump off the charts but it’s positive improvement that resulted in a turnaround season for the Giants as they made the playoffs.

On paper, at least, the Giants improved their offense by the additions of elite tight end Darren Waller and the speedy Paris Campbell at wide receiver. While Saquon Barkley is not a key addition, after escaping any setbacks last season off his ACL injury, he enters the 2023 season 100% healthy and ready to return to form. They improved a passing game that ranked in the bottom 3rd in most categories to match a very good run offense, but also their defensive holes were addressed. The Giants were ranked as one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses in 2021, but they brought in defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches to help bolster the front 7, as well as linebacker Bobby Okereke and his 151 combined tackles.

The draft was simply a home run for New York, as they continued to help the offense and defense on days one and two of the draft. Selection of cornerback Deonte Banks brings a ball-hawk player they sorely missed who is also not a liability against the run. Landing one of the top centers in the draft in John Michael Schmitz solidifies a revolving door for the Giants in recent years and anchors an offensive line that already has one of the top young left tackles in the game, Andrew Thomas. Overall their offseason was productive; now, Daniel Jones must take that next step and play to the franchise contract he just signed for everything to come together.

Washington Defense vs Giants Offense

The Giants’ additions on offense should be noticeable, especially with a fully healthy and ready-to-go Barkley on a newly-signed 1-year prove-it deal. Their running game was already one of the more effective units in the NFL, at 4.9 yards per carry, ranked 4th, and 8.7 rushing first downs per game. They will certainly need a repeat performance to counter a passing game last year that allowed 3.0 sacks per game equating to an offensive line pass protection that ranked 27th in sack percentage, at 8.92%. The addition of rookie center John Micheal Schmitz and a top pass-catching tight end in Waller should be a tremendous help to Jones by alleviating some of the pass rush.

Washington’s defense was solid in applying pressure on the quarterback – they had a 7.72% sack percentage, which was ranked 6th, but their passer rating against was average at 90.2. Waller will certainly be a matchup nightmare and, if the Giants’ running game establishes any rhythm, will provide a great safety valve for Jones when under pressure. Seeing how the Giants’ running game rushed an average of 4.5 yards per carry between both matchups last season, there is nothing to say they couldn’t duplicate that again this year. Even with the addition of Emmanuel Forbes to Washington’s secondary and a healthy Chase Young, this Giants’ offense will potentially give Washington’s defense some frustrating moments. That all said, Washington is stingy enough, allowing just  6.0 rushing yards per game, which is 7th in the league.  Also, they are very effective at keeping running backs out of the end zone, posting a 26.32% touchdown percentage, which was ranked 5th. These games will come down to the play of Daniel Jones for the Giants, and whether a healthy Chase Young can finally take his game to the next level. These opposing units should give effective counter punches throughout these games but I will give a slight advantage to Washington here as they just clearly have more talent in the trenches than do the Giants.

Matchup Edge: Washington

Washington Offense vs Giants Defense

The Giants were below league average in pressuring the quarterback with a 6.23% sack percentage, but much better in coverage, with an opposing completion percentage of  62.82%, ranked 12th. They ranked 8th in passing 1st downs let up at 53.72%. Where this unit struggled the most is run defense.  They gave up 5.3 yards per carry and allowed a 44.44% rushing touchdown conversion rate per game. Although they did make improvements this offseason through the draft and free agency, I don’t see any significant enough to completely flip the script defensively for them. With that said though, they  match up well against Washington’s pass-protection, which did not hold up well last season and made minimal upgrades on the offensive line this offseason. The offensive line had the worst sack percentages from opposing pressure at 7.97%; in addition, Washington had a mediocre run game, averaging 4.0 yards per carry.  The Giants are not exactly facing an immovable object in the trenches.

The difference this year is the addition of Eric Bieniemy and what he can do schematically to help counter a porous offensive line. He will need to get creative to get Sam Howell away from the pressure while utilizing misdirection plays between their running backs and a player like Curtis Samuel. When considering the defensive numbers the Giants had last season combined with solid upgrades, Eric can certainly put together a scheme that will protect his young quarterback while creating mismatches with their wide receivers and the Giants’ less-than-threatening secondary.

Matchup Edge: Washington

Conclusion

My matchup edges favored Washington but as far as the games go it’s the New York Giants, and we all know what that means – neither game will be an easy task as I see a one-score difference in either game. Daniel Jones has been a continued thorn in the side of this defense and now adding Darren Waller and a healthy Saquon Barkley playing for a big contract eliminates any possibility of a Washington sweep. Coming off some momentum after a 3-game-win streak entering week 7 against the Giants, Washington will carry that into this first game pulling off a 24-17 win and will be above .500 for the first time since week 1. Their week 11 matchup will come in the middle of a brutal run of their schedule after facing the Eagles, Patriots, and Seahawks; plus, it will be a week prior to their first game of the season against the Dallas Cowboys. The ebb and flow of this point of the season may very well work against them as they enter back-to-back divisional games.

At this point I have the Eagles completing a sweep of Washington.  With a win already against the Giants in week 7, Washington could press a little too hard in week 11, knowing how important the week 12 game will be against Dallas. It will be a tough spot because I realistically see them 4-6 (5-5 at best if they manage to beat the Patriots) at this point and the pressure beginning to mount on Ron Rivera. Could they answer the call? They absolutely could as the leaders on this team have that mental makeup.  However,an inexperienced young quarterback behind a below-average, to be nice here, offensive line will be this team’s Achilles heel in the critical games. Until I am proven otherwise, Washington will drop this game to the Giants 23-20 by a late-game field goal.

 

Next Up: The Dallas Cowboys