2023 Road to the Draft – Part 13

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April 11, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

Now it seems like the league is targeting having a sale of the Washington franchise in place by the next owner’s meeting in May. For whatever the reason that the sale is dragging out, so it does seem likely that the current coaching staff will be in place for the 2023 season. The major coaching opening left is offensive line coach.

Let’s Talk About the Commanders Draft

The Commanders are in a good draft position without being in a position where they must take a player who plays a particular position right off the bat. I think the current salary cap situation will have some impact on the players they take early on. The Commanders have around $3 million left in salary under the rule of 51. They will have to free up some cap space to be able to sign their draft class.

Logan Thomas being released would free up around $5 million in cap space. The question is who could replace his production on the field. One choice could be to draft Dalton Kincaid in the sixteenth spot. Kincaid is widely viewed as top tight end in the draft. He has been medically cleared from his back injury and he caught 106 passes for 1,400 yards and 16 TDs in the last two seasons at Utah.

A second player who represents a potential large cap savings is Charles Leno, whose release could free up $8 million in cap space. For that to happen, one of the top tackles would need to be available at sixteen, either Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones, or Darnell Wright. The coaching staff would have to be very comfortable with one of these rookie players protecting the blindside of Sam Howell.  The upside is one of those players works out, the left tackle position could be set for the next decade.

The third player at risk for release is Chase Roullier. His release would save the team about $4 million is cap. John Michael Schmitz is the top-rated center on the draft board; however drafting him at sixteen would be a bit of a stretch. The scenario that makes more sense drafting Schmitz is if the Commanders trade back in the draft. Other options are taking Steve Avila in the second round, Luke Wypler or Joe Tippmann in the third round.  This would add another center to the roster making Roullier expendable at that point.

One player who was already released is Bobby McCain. He finished the season at slot cornerback. Drafting Brian Branch from Alabama would solve the dilemma of who starts at slot corner next season. The other option would be to draft another outside corner like Joey Porter Jr. or Devon Witherspoon. This could free up Kendall Fuller to play slot corner.

So, there are four possible scenarios on how the first round in the draft could go for the Commanders.

Mock Draft Data

The number of mock drafts is up 16 this week to 252. The Commanders will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by descending frequency is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
CB 156 58.21% 55.16% 3.05%
OT 30 11.19% 13.10% -1.90%
QB 22 8.21% 9.52% -1.31%
TE 21 7.84% 5.95% 1.88%
IOL 15 5.60% 6.75% -1.15%
LB 9 3.36% 3.97% -0.61%
RB 7 2.61% 1.98% 0.63%
DL 4 1.49% 2.38% -0.89%
WR 2 0.75% 0.79% -0.05%
Edge 2 0.75% 0.40% 0.35%
S 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 268 100%  

The big position that gain the most ground this week was cornerback, which was up over 3%, along with tight end which was up 1.88%. The positions with the biggest drop were offensive tackle (down 1.11%), quarterback (down 1.31%) and interior offensive line (down 1.15%).

The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 16th pick are in descending frequency:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Joey Porter Jr CB Penn State 49 18.28%
Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois 39 14.55%
Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon 22 8.21%
Brian Branch CB Alabama 15 5.60%
Deonte Banks CB Maryland 14 5.22%
O’Cyrus Torrence IOL Florida 13 4.85%
Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame 13 4.85%
Broderick Jones OT Georgia 12 4.48%
Anthony Richardson QB Florida 10 3.73%
Will Levis QB Kentucky 9 3.36%
Kelee Ringo CB Georgia 9 3.36%
Dalton Kincaid TE Utah 8 2.99%
Bijan Robinson RB Texas 7 2.61%
Darnell Wright OT Tennessee 7 2.61%
Drew Sanders LB Arkansas 5 1.87%
Cam Smith CB South Carolina 5 1.87%
Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern 4 1.49%
Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State 3 1.12%
Bryan Bresee DL Clemson 3 1.12%
Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee 3 1.12%
Trenton Simpson LB Clemson 3 1.12%
Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma 3 1.12%
John Michael Schmitz IOL Minnesota 2 0.75%
Paris Johnson Jr OT Ohio State 2 0.75%
Dawand Jones OT Ohio State 2 0.75%
Isaiah Foskey Edge Notre Dame 1 0.37%
Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa 1 0.37%
Quintin Johnston WR TCU 1 0.37%
Mike Norris DL Michigan 1 0.37%
Nolan Smith LB Georgia 1 0.37%
Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee 1 0.37%
Grand Total 268 100.00%

Joey Porter Jr. overtook Devon Witherspoon to regain the lead this week. The top five selections are now all cornerbacks. O’Cyrus Torrence, Michael Meyer and Broderick Jones are the top non-CB picks on the list.  Anthony Richardson maintained his slim lead over Will Levis this week as the top quarterback choice being mocked to Washington.

Mock Freshness

Age Age % Count of Age
New 23.13% 62
1 Week Old 13.43% 36
2 Weeks Old 15.67% 42
3 Weeks Old 8.96% 24
4 Weeks Old 11.57% 31
5 Weeks Old 3.36% 9
6 Weeks Old 4.10% 11
7 Weeks Old 5.97% 16
8 Weeks Old 2.61% 7
9 Weeks Old 1.87% 5
10 Weeks Old 2.24% 6
11 Weeks Old 0.75% 2
12 Weeks Old 1.49% 4
13+Weeks Old 4.85% 13
Grand Total 100.00% 268

Trades

There were no new mock trades this week.

 

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com, pro-football-reference.com