How did Jahan Dotson stack up against his rookie class?

February 13, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Washington’s wide receiver Jahan Dotson proved quite a bit in his rookie year, demonstrating both significant talent as a route runner and athletic ability, despite being burdened by some questionable quarterback play at times.  He gave Washington fans some hope that the team may have planted the seeds of an elite pairing at the receiver position for years to come.  These are all great things, but how did his performance compare against the other receivers in his rookie class?  I was genuinely curious to find out.  Therefore, for this exercise, I’m going to compare the stats for a select group of the 2022 drafted rookie receiver class.  Let’s get started digging into some numbers.

This first chart shows some basics: number of targets, receptions, and yardage for the 2022 class of drafted rookie receivers, sorted by receptions:

Rank	Name	Team	Draft pos.	Targets	Receptions	Yardage
1	Garrett Wilson	Jets	1-10	147	83	1103
2	Chris Olave	Saints	1-11	119	72	1042
3	Drake London	Falcons	1-8	117	72	866
4	George Pickens	Steelers	2-52	84	52	801
5	Christian Watson	Packers	2-34	66	41	611
6	Alec Pierce	Bengals	2-53	78	41	593
7	Jahan Dotson	Washington	1-16	61	35	523
8	Treylon Burks	Titans	1-18	54	33	444
9	Romeo Doubs	Packers	4-132	67	42	425
10	Skyy Moore	Chiefs	2-54	33	22	250

Basic stats like this aren’t the be-all, end-all of wide receiver performance.  Obviously, some of these receivers were in better situations than others, and some were their team’s principal targets.  For example, Dotson himself played opposite Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, and Cincinnati’s Pierce played with superstar Ja’Marr Chase, which certainly took potential production away from both.  These stats are simply a basic look how productive each receiver was in his rookie year.  There’s no question that Garrett Wilson was the #1 rookie receiver here, followed by Chris Olave and Drake London.  For Dotson’s part, his stats weren’t close to those of the top few, but he was also held back a bit by playing for a running team.

This next chart shows the top rookie receivers as measured by catch percentage, for those with at least 30 targets:

Rank	Name	Team	Draft pos.	Catch %	Targets	Receptions
1	Wan’Dale Robinson	Giants	2-43	74.2%	31	23
2	David Bell	Browns	3-99	68.6%	35	24
3	Skyy Moore	Chiefs	2-54	66.7%	33	22
4	Romeo Doubs	Packers	4-132	62.7%	67	42
5	Christian Watson	Packers	2-34	62.1%	66	41
6	George Pickens	Steelers	2-52	61.9%	84	52
7	Drake London	Falcons	1-8	61.5%	117	72
8	Treylon Burks	Titans	1-18	61.1%	54	33
9	Chris Olave	Saints	1-11	60.5%	119	72
10	Jahan Dotson	Washington	1-16	57.4%	61	35
11	Garrett Wilson	Jets	1-10	56.5%	147	83

In terms of Dotson, his performance was once again good but not great by catch % as compared to his rookie peers.  Unsurprisingly, the receivers with the most receptions – Wilson, Olave, and London – were a bit farther down the list.  Once again, Dotson was certainly held back by some poor quarterbacking at times, but nevertheless, his 10th place ranking seems to be a fairly accurate measurement of where he stands amongst his class.

This next chart shows the rankings of the rookie wide receivers in yards per reception, for those with a minimum of 20 receptions:

Rank	Name	Team	Draft pos.	Yds/rec	Targets	Receptions
1	George Pickens	Steelers	2-52	15.4	84	52
3	Jahan Dotson	Washington	1-16	14.9	61	35
3	Christian Watson	Packers	2-34	14.9	66	41
5	Chris Olave	Saints	1-11	14.5	119	72
5	Alec Pierce	Bengals	2-53	14.5	78	41
6	Treylon Burks	Titans	1-18	13.5	54	33
7	Garrett Wilson	Jets	1-10	13.3	147	83
8	Drake London	Falcons	1-8	12.0	117	72

This is the list of top rookie performance as measured by yards per target, for receivers with over 30 targets, meaning how far downfield quarterbacks were throwing the ball to these receivers:

Rank	Name	Team	Draft pos.	Yards/target	Targets
1	George Pickens	Steelers	2-52	9.5	84
2	Chris Olave	Saints	1-11	8.8	119
3	Jahan Dotson	Washington	1-16	8.6	61
4	Treylon Burks	Titans	1-18	8.2	54
6	Alec Pierce	Bengals	2-53	7.6	78
6	Skyy Moore	Chiefs	2-54	7.6	33
7	Garrett Wilson	Jets	1-10	7.5	147
8	Drake London	Falcons	1-8	7.4	117

Now check how the list of most touchdowns in the rookie receiving class and the number of receptions per touchdown:

Rank	Name	Team	Draft pos.	TDs	Receptions per TD	Games
1	Jahan Dotson	Washington	1-16	7	5.0	12
1	Christian Watson	Packers	2-34	7	8.2	14
5	George Pickens	Steelers	2-52	4	13.0	17
5	Chris Olave	Saints	1-11	4	18.0	15
5	Garrett Wilson	Jets	1-10	4	20.8	17
5	Drake London	Falcons	1-8	4	18.0	17
6	Romeo Doubs	Packers	4-132	3	14.0	13

As you can see, Dotson is first in both of number of touchdowns and receptions per touchdown, and is third in yardage per target.  This means that his receptions went for more yardage, and he scored touchdowns at a much more prolific rate than did any of his peers.  Translation: when Dotson was able to get a ball in his hands, he had a bigger impact on his offense in each play than did his peers.  That’s a credit to Dotson’s talent as a receiver.

The executive summary of these stats that while Dotson has fewer cumulating stats than do many of his peers, he was a very significant contributor to his team, more than most.  Plus, it’s significant that he did this on an offense with quarterback problems.  What does this really say about Dotson and his potential future?  Some of these rookies are probably possession receivers, destined to be solid and reliable, but not dangerous players.  That doesn’t appear to be Dotson’s destiny, particularly when paired with a receiver as talented as McLaurin.  This means that Washington’s receiver group has a bright future.