2023 NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview
January 13, 2023
by Steve Thomas
I’ve kept the format from last year for our playoff preview column; namely, I’ve dispensed with the pages and pages of hardcore statistical analysis of each aspect of all of the playoff teams’ offenses and defenses that I did for many years. I did this primarily because (1) Washington isn’t in the playoffs, and (2) it’s a ton of work – the most data-intensive regular column that I do – without getting the benefit more readership than other columns. If you would like to see me bring it back for next year, let me know.
Therefore, I’m going to cover the Wildcard weekend schedule and give a preview of each game. Let’s jump right in.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (14 – 3; 1st, AFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
- Buffalo Bills (13 – 3; 1st, AFC East)
- Cincinnati Bengals (12 – 4; 1st, AFC North)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9 – 8; 1st, AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC West)
- Baltimore Ravens (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
- Miami Dolphins (9 – 8; 2nd, AFC East)
NFC
- Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East; homefield advantage and bye)
- San Francisco 49ers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC West)
- Minnesota Vikings (13 – 4; 1st, NFC North)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 – 9; 1st, NFC South)
- Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
- New York Giants (9 – 7 – 1 ; 3rd, NFC East)
- Seattle Seahawks (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC West)
2023 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 14
4:30 p.m. ET – Seahawks (#7) at 49ers (#2) (Fox, FoxSports.com, fuboTV)
8:15 p.m. ET – Chargers (#5) at Jaguars (#4) (NBC, fuboTV)
Sunday, Jan. 15
1:00 p.m. ET – Dolphins (#7) at Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount +, fuboTV)
4:30 p.m. ET – Giants (#6) at Vikings (#3) (Fox, FoxSports.com, fuboTV)
8:15 p.m. ET – Ravens (#6) at Bengals (#3) (NBC, Peacock, fuboTV)
Monday, Jan. 17
8:00 p.m. ET – Cowboys (#5) at Buccaneers (#4) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN+, fuboTV)
Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 21
TBD vs TBD
TBD vs TBD
Sunday, Jan. 22
TBD vs TBD
TBD vs TBD
Championship Weekend
Sunday, Jan. 29
AFC (CBS)
NFC (Fox)
Super Bowl 57
Sunday, Feb. 12
6:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona (Fox, FoxSports.com, fuboTV)
Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched travesty of music, again, when it could be Metallica Rihanna
Game Previews
Seahawks at 49ers
Early line: 49ers, -9.5
San Francisco’s offense scored 450 points this season, which is ranked 6th. In the passing game, the 49ers as a team have a 66% completion percentage, which is ranked 11th. Rookie sensation Brock Purdy went 114 for 170 for 1374 yards, a 67.1% completion percentage, and threw 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 5 starts, and a quarterback rating of 107.3. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are the primary receiving threats, with 78 receptions for 1015 yards and 60 receptions for 765 yards, respectively. Christian McCaffrey is the leader of the ground game, with 746 yards in 159 carries, for 4.7 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns, and also had 52 receptions for 464 yards. Defensively, San Francisco is probably the best in the league, with only 277 points surrendered, which is ranked 1st, and 5110 yards surrendered, which is ranked 2nd. They are also #1 against the run, with opponents gaining just 3.4 yards per carry. They are not quite as strong against the pass, albeit still very good, with 3789 yards surrendered, which is ranked 21st. Opposing quarterbacks earned a quarterback rating of 82.7, which is 5th in the NFL. All Pro defensive end Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks.
The Seahawks scored 407 points, which is ranked 9th in the league. They gained 5976 total yards, which is ranked 12th. Seattle leads the NFL in team completion percentage, at 69.7, and have 3934 passing yards, ranked 11th. Pro Bowler Geno Smith has been outstanding this year, with 399 completions in 572 attempts, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, for a quarterback rating of 100.9. On the ground, Seattle has average 4.8 yards per carry (ranked 7th) and gained a total of 2042 yards on 425 carries, which is ranked 18th and 22nd, respectively. Running back Kenneth Walker III leads the rushing attack, with 228 carries for 1050 yards this season, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry. D.K. Metcalf is the leading receiver with 90 receptions for 1048 yards, but Tyler Lockett is right behind him with 1033 yards in 84 carries. On defense, Seattle surrendered 401 points, which is ranked 25th in the NFL, and gave up 6149 yards (ranked 26th). Linebacker Jordyn Brooks led the team in tackles, with 161 total.
The 49ers beat Seattle twice this season, the first time by a score of 27 – 7 in week 2, and 21 – 13 in week 15.
Steve’s prediction: San Francisco 34 – 24. Seattle isn’t a bad team, but it’s hard to see their defense being able to control the 49ers enough to win this game. San Francisco has been on a serious role of late and is probably headed to the NFC Championship game. Geno Smith plays well in a competitive game, but the 49ers walk away with a victory.
Chargers at Jaguars
Early line: Chargers, -2
The Jaguars scored 404 points this year, which is ranked 10th, and gained 6075 yards, ranked 9th. They are ranked 10th in passing yardage and tied for 11th in rushing yards per attempt, and 4.7 yards per carry. The 2021 #1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, completed 584 passes in 17 games, 66.3% completion percentage, 4113 yards, 25 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 95.2 quarterback rating. The lead running back, Travis Etienne, had 1125 yards on 220 carries for an average of 5.1 yards per attempt. Christian Kirk was the leading receiver, with 84 receptions for 1108 yards. Defensively, Jacksonville surrendered 350 points, ranked 12th, and gave up 6006 yards, which was ranked 24th. The gave up 3406 passing yards (7th) and 4.2 yards per carry (8th).
The Chargers scored 391 points, ranked 13th, and gained 6108 total yards, ranked 8th. They had 4584 passing yards, which was 3rd in the NFL, and averaged 3.8 yards per carry, which was ranked 30th. Quarterback Justin Herbert had 699 completions, 68.2% completion percentage, 4739 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 93.2 quarterback rating. Austin Eckler was the leading rusher with 915 yards, and an average of 4.5 yards per attempt. Mike Williams was the leading receiver with 63 receptions for 895 yards. The Chargers gave up 384 points, ranked 21st, 5884 total yards (20th), 3406 passing yards (7th), and 5.4 yards per carry, which was the worst run defense in the league.
The Jaguars beat the Chargers by a score of 38 – 10 in week 3.
Steve’s prediction: The Jaguars win a close, good game, 28 – 24. The Jaguars run game will have a good day against the Chargers porous run defense, which will give them the upper hand.
Dolphins at Bills
Early line: Bills, -13
Buffalo’s offense has scored 455 points, ranked 4th in the NFL, and has gained a total of 6361 yards, also 4th. They have 4129 passing yards (8th) in a total of 574 attempts (ranked 14th), and 2232 rushing yards on (9th) at an average of 5.2 yards per attempt (3rd) on 430 attempts (20th). Their quarterback, Pro Bowler Josh Allen, completed 359 pass attempts for 4283 yards, a 63.3% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 96.6 quarterback rating. Devin Singletary is the leading rusher, with 819 yards in 177 attempts, for an average of 4.6 yards per attempt, but Allen has 762 yards on 124 yards, for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. James Cook averages 5.7 yards per carry. Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs has 108 receptions for 1429 yards. On defense, the Bills have surrendered just 286 points (ranked 2nd), 5106 total yards (#1 in the league), 3433 passing yards (ranked 9th), as well as 1673 rushing yards (ranked 4th) at an average of 4.3 yards per carry (ranked 14th)
Miami has scored 397 points (ranked 11th), gained 6197 total yards (ranked 6th), 4511 passing yards (ranked 4th) in 584 attempts (ranked 12th), and 1686 rushing yards (ranked 26th) in 390 attempts (ranked 31st), for an average of 4.3 yards per carry (ranked 23rd). Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out, so the Dolphins may have roll with Skylar Thompson, who started 2 games this year and posted a 62.2 quarterback rating, if backup Teddy Bridgewater isn’t ready. Defensively, the Dolphins have surrendered 399 points (ranked 24th), 5743 total yards (ranked 18th), 3992 passing yards (ranked 27th), and 1751 rushing yards (ranked 6th), for an average of 4.1 yards per carry (ranked 6th).
The Bills and Dolphins split the season series, with the Dolphins winning 21 – 19 in week 3 and the Bills winning 32 – 29 in week 15.
Steve’s prediction:
This game will probably be a blowout. Bills 32 – 17. The Dolphins are missing their starting quarterback and the Bills are on a mission.
Giants at Vikings
Early line: Vikings, -3
The Vikings have scored 424 points (ranked 7th), gained 6145 total yards (ranked 7th), 4484 passing yards (ranked 5th), and 1661 rushing yards (ranked 27th) at an average of 4.1 yards per carry (ranked 26th). Washington fan favorite and Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins has passed for 4547 yards, a 65.9% completion percentage, 29 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 92.5 quarterback rating. Dalvin Cook is the leading rusher with 1173 yards at an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Pro Bowl wide receiver Justin Jefferson has 128 receptions for 1809 yards. Defensively, the Vikings have surrendered 427 points (ranked 30th), 6608 total yards (ranked 31st), 4515 passing yards (ranked 31st), and 2093 rushing yards (ranked 20th) for an average of 4.5 yards per attempt (ranked 23rd).
The Giants have scored 365 points (ranked 15th), and gained 5676 total yards (ranked 18th), 3157 passing yards (ranked 26th), and 2519 rushing yards (ranked 4th) at an average of 4.8 yards per carry, which is ranked 7th. Quarterback Daniel Jones passed for 3205 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a 92.5 quarterback rating. Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 1312 yards at 4.4 yards per carry. Darius Slayton is the Giants’ leading receiver with 724 yards. Defensively, the Giants gave up 371 points (ranked 17th), 6089 total yards (ranked 25th), 3638 passing yards (ranked 15th), and 2451 rushing yards (ranked 27th) for an average of 5.2 yards per carry, which is 31st in the NFL.
The Vikings defeated the Giants by a score of 27 – 24 in week 16.
Steve’s prediction:
This is just a hunch, but the Giants win this game in a high scoring affair, 32 – 28. The Giants are playing well, have a good coach, and are facing Kirk Cousins, who historically doesn’t do well in big games.
Ravens at Bengals
Early line: Bengals, -8.5
Cincinnati scored 418 points (ranked 8th), and gained 5768 total yards, 4240 passing yards (ranked 7th), and 1528 rushing yards (ranked 29th) at an average of 3.8 yards per carry, which is ranked 30th. Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 4475 yards, with a 68.3% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 100.8 quarterback rating. The Bengals leading rusher is Joe Mixon with 814 yards at an average of 3.9 yards per carry. Tee Higgins in the leading receiver with 1029 yards on 74 carries. Defensively, the Bengals have given up 322 points (ranked 5th), 5371 total yards (ranked 7th), 3665 passing yards (ranked 16th), and 1706 rushing yards (ranked 5th) for an average of 4.2 yards per carry (ranked 10th).
The Ravens scored 350 points (ranked 19th), and gained 5760 total yards (ranked 16th), 3040 passing yards (ranked 28th), and 2720 rushing yards (ranked 2nd) at an average of 5.2 yards per carry (ranked 3rd). The Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson ruled himself out of this game, so the Ravens will turn to some combination of Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown, which is . . . sub-optimal. Jackson was the team’s leading rusher with 764 yards. Demarcus Robinson is the leading receiver with 48 receptions for 458 yards. Defensively, Baltimore has surrendered 406 points (ranked 4th), 5513 total yards (ranked 11th), 3947 passing yards (ranked 26th), and 1566 rushing yards (3rd) for 3.9 yards per carry (ranked 3rd).
The Bengals beat the Ravens by a score of 27 – 16 in week 18.
Steve’s prediction:
Cincinnati wins 24 – 14. Without Lamar Jackson, who is essentially the totality of Baltimore’s offense, all hope is lost for the Ravens.
Cowboys at Buccaneers
Early line: Cowboys, -2.5
Tampa Bay scored 313 points, which is ranked 25th, and gained 5894 total yards (ranked 14th), 4586 passing yards (ranked 2nd), and 1308 rushing yards (worst in the NFL) at an average of 3.4 yards per carry (also worst in the NFL). Tampa’s quarterback, Tom Brady, aka Tom Terrific, passed for 4694 yards, and had a 66.8% completion percentage, 25 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and a 90.7 quarterback rating. The Buccaneers’ leading rusher was Leonard Fournette, who had 668 yards at an average of 3.5 yards per carry. Receiver Chris Godwin had 104 receptions for 1023 yards, and receiver Mike Evans had 77 receptions for 1124 yards. Defensively, Tampa Bay gave up 358 points (ranked 13th), 5513 total yards (ranked 10th), 3461 passing yards (ranked 10th), and 2052 rushing yards at an average of 4.5 yards per carry (ranked 22nd).
Dallas scored 467 points (ranked 3rd), and gained 6034 total yards (ranked 10th), 3736 passing yards (ranked 14th), and 2298 rushing yards (ranked 8th) at 4.3 yards per carry (ranked 23rd). Quarterback Dak Prescott had 2860 passing yards in 12 games, a 66.2% completion percentage, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a 91.1 quarterback rating. Pro Bowler Tony Pollard was the leading rusher with 1007 yards at an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb had 107 receptions for 1359 yards. On defense, Dallas surrendered 342 yards (ranked 6th), 5613 total yards (ranked 13th), 3415 passing yards (ranked 8th), and 2198 rushing yards (ranked 22nd) at 4.4 yards per carry (ranked 18th).
Tampa Bay defeated the Cowboys 19 – 3 in week 1.
Steve’s prediction: Dallas wins 28 – 24. Dallas won’t be as bad this week as they were against Washington in week 18. Tom Brady seems a bit washed up, and Tampa’s status as the worst rushing team in the league will come back to haunt them.
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