2021 Divisional Round Playoff Preview

January 21, 2022

Mercifully, the Dallas Cowboys exited the playoffs last weekend in the most absurd way possible, with Dak Prescott taking off from the 40 yard line on a quarterback keeper with 13 seconds left, predictably not being able to get the next play off in time, and then applauding the Dallas fans for throwing trash at the officiating crew.  If that’s not a “Dallas” sort of thing, I don’t know what is.  Anyway, with both Dallas and the Eagles out of it, we Redskins Washington fans can now enjoy the rest of the playoffs.  Things get serious now, with the two top seeds, the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers jump into the frey, facing the Bengals and 49ers, respectively.  We’ll give a quick preview of all of the matchups below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12 – 5; 1st, AFC South; homefield advantage and bye)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (12 – 5; 1st, AFC West)
3. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (10 – 7; 1st, AFC North)
5. Las Vegas Raiders (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC West)
6. New England Patriots (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC East)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9 – 7 – 1; 2nd, AFC North)

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC South)
3. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
4. Los Angeles Rams (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West)
5. Arizona Cardinals (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC West)
6. San Francisco 49ers (10 – 7; 3rd, NFC West)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC East)

2021 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 22

4:30 p.m. ET – Bengals (#4) at Titans (#1) (CBS, Paramount+)

8:15 p.m. ET – 49ers (#6) at Packers (#1) (FOX, FOX Deportes)

Sunday, Jan. 23

3:00 p.m. ET – Rams (#4) at Buccaneers (#2) (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

6:30 p.m. ET – Bills (#3) vs Chiefs (#2) (CBS, Paramount+)

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 30

3:05 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS)

6:40 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox)

Super Bowl

Sunday, Feb. 13

6:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (NBC)

Halftime Show – some terrible debacle nobody will care about after it ends, again Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, Eminem, Mary J. Blige

DIVISIONAL MATCHUP PREVIEW

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Line: Titans, -3.5

The Bengals scored 460 points (ranked 7th) and have been an outstanding passing team, ranked 2nd in the NFL in both quarterback rating and completion percentage.  They are a bottom-10 rushing team.  Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 4611 yards (ranked 6th) in 16 games this year, had a 70.4% completion percentage (ranked #1), 34 touchdowns (ranked 8th), 14 interceptions, and a 108.3 quarterback rating (ranked #2).  On defense, the Bengals have surrendered 376 points (ranked 17th) and are middle of the pack by most passing metrics, and gave up 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground.  The Bengals finished the season with a 3 – 1 record and beat a number of quality teams this season, including the Chiefs and the Steelers twice.  Last week, Cincinnati defeated the Raiders in a close game that featured a blown call by the officiating crew that allowed an unearned Bengals touchdown and that came down to the final possession of the game.  For his part, Burrow went 24 for 34 for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns against a Raiders team whose 96.4 opposing quarterback rating was ranked 24th.

The Titans scored 419 points this season, which was ranked 15th, and were ranked 17th in total yards gained, 24th in passing yards, and 5th in rushing yards.  They averaged 4.4 rushing yards per attempt, which was ranked 14th in the NFL.  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill started all 17 games this season and passed for 3734 yards (ranked 16th), had a 67.2% completion percentage (12th), 21 touchdowns (16th), 14 interceptions, and an 89.6 quarterback rating (20th).  The Titans’ best offensive player, running back Derrick Henry, has been on injured reserve due to a broken foot suffered in week 8, but was designated to return prior to Tennessee’s week 18 game.  This means the Titans have 21 days from his designation to return date to activate Henry.  As of publication, the Titans have not done so.  During his absence, Henry been replaced by a combination of D’Onta Freeman and Dontrell Hilliard, who have gained 566 and 350 yards, at 4.3 and 6.3 yards per carry, respectively.  Wide receiver A.J. Brown is the team’s leading receiver, with 869 yards.  Receivers Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and longtime veteran Julio Jones are also productive, with 476 and 434 yards, respectively.  Jones was activated off of injured reserve on December 11.  On defense, the Titans surrendered 354 points (ranked 6th), and are 12th in total yards, 25th in passing yards, 2nd in rushing yards, and 4th in rushing yards per attempt.  Opposing quarterbacks have an average quarterback rating of 86.4 (ranked 9th).  The Titans went 4 – 1 after their bye week, with their only loss coming against the Steelers in week 15.  On the other hand, they didn’t have the toughest of schedules, with three of those four wins came against the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, which are three of the worst teams in the NFL.  They also lost to the Jets in overtime in week 4.

The Bengals and Titans did not play each other this season.

Steve’s prediction: Titans win and cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Line: Packers, -6

San Francisco scored 427 points this season (ranked 13th), and were ranked 7th in total yards gained, 12th in passing yards, 11th in completion percentage, 7th in rushing yards, and 20th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a 68.3% completion percentage (ranked 6th) and a 98.7 quarterback rating (ranked 9th).  Elijah Mitchell led the team in rushing with 963 yards and 4.7 yards per attempt.  Tight end George Kittle led the team with 910 receiving yards.  Other weapons include receiver Brandon Aiyuk (826 yards).  On defense, the 49ers allowed 365 points (ranked 10th), and are ranked 3rd in total yards, 6th in passing yards, 30th in opposing completion percentage, and 7th in both rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt.  San Francisco won 4 of their last 5 games, including two overtime victories.  The 49ers defeated the Dallas Cowboys last week by a score of 23 – 17.

The Packers scored 450 points this season, which was ranked 10th, and were ranked 10th in total yards, 8th in passing yards, 18th in rushing yards, and 20th in yards per carry.  The quarterback, future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers, passed for 4115 yards (ranked 10th), had a 68.9% completion percentage (ranked 3rd), 37 touchdowns (ranked 6th), just 4 interceptions, and had a 111.9 quarterback rating (ranked #1).  Receiver Davante Adams was the Packers’ most productive non-Aaron Rodgers player, by far, with 1553 yards (ranked 3rd) and 11 touchdowns.  Rodgers spread the ball around to a number of different receivers, including Randall Cobb, (375 yards), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (430 yards).  AJ Dillion is the team’s starting running back and had 803 yards and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt.  On defense, Green Bay surrendered 371 yards, which is ranked 14th, and were ranked 9th in total yards, 10th in passing yards, and 11th in rushing yards, but just 30th in rushing yards per attempt.  The Packers won 5 of their last 6 games, with their only loss coming in week 18 against the Lions in a game in which Rodgers was out at halftime.

The 49ers and Packers played each other in week 3 in San Francisco, with Green Bay earned a victory by a score of 30 – 28.

Steve’s prediction: Packers win in a fairly close game, but don’t cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line:  Buccaneers, -2.5

The Rams scored 460 points, which was ranked 8th, and were 9th in total yards, 5th in passing yards, 25th in rushing yards, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford passed for 4886 yards (3rd), 67.2% completion percentage (12th), and a quarterback rating of 102.9 (6th).  Sony Michel was the Rams’ leading rusher, with 845 yards and 4.1 yards per carry.  Receiver Cooper Kupp had 1947 yards, which led the NFL.  Receiver Van Jefferson had 802 yards, and tight end Tyler Higbee had 560 yards.  On defense, the Rams surrendered 372 yards, which was ranked 15th.  They were ranked 17th in total yards, 22nd in passing yards, 6th in rushing yards, and 7th in rushing yards per attempt.  The Rams went 5 – 2 after their bye week to finish off the regular season.  Last Monday night, the Rams easily handled the Arizona Cardinals by the score of 34 – 11.

The Buccaneers – i.e., the Tampa Bay Tom Bradys – scored 511 points, which is the second-highest amount in the league, and are second in total yards gained.  Behind Brady’s talent, they were #1 in the NFL in passing yards.  Brady was 7th in quarterback rating, 1st in passing yards and touchdowns.  They are less accomplished on the ground, averaging just 4.3 yards per carry, which is ranked 20th.  Tampa Bay finally got rid of their resident lunatic, Antonio Brown, but they are still an embarrassment of riches on offense, even setting Brady aside: running back Leonard Fournette (812 yards; 4.5 yards per carry), receiver Mike Evans (1035 yards), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (802 yards in just 12 games).  On defense, Tampa Bay gave up just 353 yards (ranked 5th), 13th in total yards, 7th in sacks, 8th in opposing quarterback rating, 3rd in rushing yards, and 17th in rushing yards per attempt.  They finished the season as strong as any team in the league, winning 7 of their last 8, with their only loss coming against the Saints.  Tampa’s biggest problem for this game is the length of their injury report, which is extensive.  Last week, the Buccaneers defeated the Eagles in a blowout that was never a competitive game.

The Rams and Buccaneers played each other in week 3 in Los Angeles, with the Rams winning by a score of 34 – 24.

Steve’s prediction: Tampa in a very close game, but cover.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Line:  Chiefs, -1.5

Buffalo has a prolific offense, having scored 483 points, which is the third-most in the NFL this season.  They have quality numbers in both the passing and running games – they average 4.8 yards per carry (ranked 5th) and has scored 20 rushing touchdowns (ranked 8th).  The Bills aren’t nearly as efficient in the air, with a 63.4% completion percentage (ranked 23rd).  Josh Allen’s quarterback rating is just 92.2, which is ranked 16th.  Their key offensive players other than Allen are running back Devin Singletary (870 yards) and receiver Stefon Diggs (1,225 receiving yards).  Buffalo’s defense is extremely stingy, being #1 in the NFL in points allowed, total yards, opposing quarterback rating, and completion rating.  They were less successful in rush defense, giving up 4.2 yards per carry.  Buffalo finished the season on a roll, winning 4 in a row (including one game over the Patriots), each by a fairly healthy margin.  Last week, the Bills destroyed the Patriots at home by a score of 47 – 17.

The Chiefs have had their ups and downs this season, but scored 480 points (ranked 4th).  They are ranked 3rd in total yards, 4th in passing yards, 16th in rushing yards, and 10th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4839 yards (ranked 4th), had a season quarterback rating of 98.5 (ranked 10th), and a 66.3% completion percentage (ranked 17th).  Darrel Williams led the team in rushing with 558 yards (3.9 yards per attempt), but the big name here is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who missed 7 games due to injury but still gained 517 yards at an average of 4.3 yards per carry.  Receiver Tyrek Hill led the team with 1239 receiving yards, with tight end Travis Kelce just behind him with 1125 yards.  The Chiefs defense has struggled.  They gave up 364 yards (ranked 8th), and were ranked 27th in total yards and passing yards, 21st in rushing yards, and 31st in average yards per carry.  Kansas City was on a big-time roll at the end of the regular season, winning 9 of their last 10 games, including over the Packers, Cowboys, and Bengals.  In the Wild Card round, they defeated the Steelers in a 42 – 21 blowout in the last game of Ben Roethlisberger’s hall of fame career.

The Chiefs and Bills faced off in Kansas City in week 5 in Kansas City, with the Bills taking the victory by a score of 38 – 20.

Steve’s prediction:  Chiefs in another close game.