What does Washington have in Jaret Patterson?
May 20, 2021
by Steve Thomas
Washington’s run game has undergone major changes since Ron Rivera took over as head coach, going from senior citizen hall of famer Adrian Peterson, a guy who couldn’t stay healthy and out of trouble in Derrius Guice, and a collegiate superstar with an injury problem in Bryce Love to a new room featuring 2020 third round pick Antonio Gibson and free agent acquisition J.D. McKissic. However, since Gibson is a former receiver turned running back who’s more of a multi-use slasher type of back rather than an interior gap power back, and McKissic’s highest and best use is as a receiver in the passing game, it appears that the Redskins Washington could use another, more traditional running back to round out the group.
Enter Jaret Patterson, the University of Buffalo product who put up historic-level numbers in college. Patterson is a childhood Redskins fan – he’s a native of Glen Dale, Maryland, a graduate of St. Vincent Pallotti High School in Laurel, Maryland, and childhood friend of Washington star defensive end Chase Young. Patterson spent three seasons at Buffalo, playing in a total of 33 games, with 636 rushing attempts for 3,884 yards, 6.1 yards per carry, and 52 touchdowns. His 2019 sophomore year was the best season for a running back in school history. During that campaign, he had 312 carries for 1,799 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, and 19 touchdowns. In Patterson’s 2020 junior year, with Buffalo having a shortened schedule due to the coronavirus pandemic, he played in all 6 games, with 141 carries for 1,072 yards, 7.6 yards per carry, and 19 touchdowns. He was named the Mid-American Conference Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year for 2020.
Patterson put up an incredible 409 yards (just short of the NCAA single game record of 427 yards held by old friend Samaje Perine) and 8 touchdowns against Kent St. last year, and had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns against Bowling Green one week prior. In fact, in three games against Kent St. between 2018 and 2020, Patterson had a total of 84 carries for 737 yards and 10 touchdowns.
At the University of Buffalo pro day, he was measured at 5’6” 1/2 and 195 pounds and posted an unofficial time of 4.52 seconds in the 40 yard dash. Washington lists him at 5’8” on the team website. Like most players, his 40 time at the NFL Combine – which didn’t take place this year – probably would have been slightly higher since it is electronically timed.
Film analysis
Games watched: Miami (OH) (November 10, 2020), Bowling Green (November 17, 2021), Kent St. (November 28, 2020)
Patterson, when at his best, looks in all seriousness like a collegiate version of Barry Sanders. He doesn’t play like that all the time, of course, and I’m not predicting that he’s going to end up in the hall of fame, but he has some very impressive performances on film. Of course, Buffalo is a strong, dedicated running team with an outstanding offensive line, and obviously plays a much lower level of competition than do power 5 conference teams. With that having been said, let’s take a quick look at some of Patterson’s strengths and weaknesses. I’m not a scout – I’m just a guy with a laptop with video editing software who likes watching film. I don’t claim to be a professional, so take my observations for what you will. #notascout.
Strengths
Patterson is a quality zone and read option runner. He isn’t the most fluid back out there, but he has good vision and knows when to hit his cutback lanes. Patterson has good but not great speed, but at Buffalo’s level of competition, it was enough to allow him to take several of these runs to the house. He specializes in zone scheme and would be best served being in this system in the NFL. Check out this short series of film clips:
Certainly, in some of these plays, Patterson had huge holes created by Buffalo’s offensive line of which many running backs could take advantage, but what you should notice is Patterson’s ability to find the cutback lane and decisively make his move back into the crease. Patterson has some speed, especially for this level of college football, and while he doesn’t appear to necessarily have tremendous acceleration, his top end speed was enough to outrun the Kent St. secondary multiple times. These plays also demonstrate his ability to make people miss – he isn’t a player who’s going to regularly make a series of ankle-breaking stutter steps, but does have his moments, is very hard to tackle and can be elusive. There are a few more plays below demonstrating those skills. Most of Patterson’s big plays in the observed games came during zone plays.
Patterson isn’t just limited to zone scheme runs, though. Check out this series of plays:
In these plays, Patterson is obviously hitting the interior gaps in more of a power scheme system. He’s not Marshawn Lynch, but he was successful and can probably be successful in the NFL as well. Patterson is compact in size, so he’s hard to see and tough to get a solid hit on him; plus, he is outstanding at falling forward for more yards.
As shown in the following plays, Patterson regularly bounces off and eludes tacklers:
In these clips, observe how hard Patterson is to tackle with arms alone. He requires a solid hit in order to get put on the ground. Buffalo fans and media thought of Patterson as a bowling ball; while he’s probably too light for that label in the NFL, he’s not one to go down easily. As the clips show, he breaks tackles on a regular basis. Patterson has quick feet and can make quick cuts, which makes it difficult for defenders to get a solid hit.
Weaknesses
Patterson’s biggest weakness is that he hasn’t demonstrated that he can be a threat in Washington’s passing game. He only had 20 receptions in three years in college, and none in 2020. I observed Patterson move out laterally as an outlet valve on occasion, but he did not have a single pass attempt thrown his way in the three games I watched. It’s possible that he could develop this skill, of course, but there’s no reason to think that he can be an asset in the passing game in the same vein as Gibson and McKissic. Unless Washington’s coaching staff can unlock this talent, his lack of receiving skills will probably make him a two down back. In fact, Buffalo had a second starter-worthy running back with whom Patterson split carries, so he doesn’t have a history of being an every-down franchise back. It’s unlikely that he will be able to become a three-down franchise back in the pros.
Patterson is fast and quick enough by mid-tier college standards, and certainly he ran away from Kent St. defenders, but he doesn’t appear to have NFL-level elite speed and acceleration. His 40 time of 4.52 seconds is good but not great, and while his top end speed translates to the field, I’m not sure that his acceleration and burst really did, at least not by pro standards. Also, even though Patterson is clearly an elusive runner, he’s not nearly as fluid in his movements and in his hips as are elite NFL backs.
Patterson’s height is certainly below average for an NFL running back, but in my view, his weight is the bigger problem. He’s hard to see behind tall offensive lineman, and his film showed that defenders can have a hard time locating him as a result, so whether he’s really 5’6” 1/2 or 5’8” as Washington has him listed, 195 pounds is very light for a short back who isn’t going to be able to rely on speed. Patterson is compact, but he’s not as thick and muscular as true power back, and at 195 pounds, NFL linebackers won’t have as much trouble putting him on the ground as MAC defenders did. Summary: he’s small and light, but not overly fast, which are not normally traits found in big-time starting NFL running backs.
Finally, Patterson’s film didn’t show him to be particularly good in pass blocking.
Conclusions
Patterson absolutely has NFL-level talent and can be a regular contributor in Washington’s running back group. His physical advantages that he used in college to put up such eye-popping numbers may not translate well into the NFL – his speed is so-so and his ability to break tackles will be less in the pros because of his lack of size. In addition, the University of Buffalo’s offensive system and outstanding offensive line played no small part in Patterson’s success. Plus, if he truly is mainly a zone scheme back, which is where most of his game-breaking runs came from, then that may not play particularly well in Washington’s offense. That having been said, Patterson is guy with great vision, is hard to tackle, and can make people miss, and those qualities are universal. Washington can use someone to be a short yardage back and who can effectively hit the interior gaps in a power scheme, all of which being what Peyton Barber was supposed to bring to DC, but hasn’t. At the end of the day, Patterson, despite his diminutive size, is a traditional back, and that’s something the team can use. If Patterson lives up to his potential, Washington may be able to let Gibson fill a more varied role with the team and let Barber go. I think he can make the roster and contribute in year one as a rotational back on first and second downs.