Game Recap: Redskins 1 – 7, Off to Worst Start in 20 Years
At 1 – 7, the Redskins are off to their worst season start in 20 years. Setting aside a week 11 matchup with the Jets, few winnable games remain on the schedule. It’s possible we eke out a victory against the Giants in week 16, but would it matter if we did? The Redskins are a rotten steak marinated in a slow-brewing firesale sauce by a mad chef in harvest fest pants. What head coach is going to want to eat this meal? Please help me.
Dwayne Haskins played and looked terrible. No surprises there. He needs to keep playing though, because that is the way that successful teams manage their first-round draft talent. Here are some very science-y charts that demonstrate the correlation between rookie-year starts and NFL career success, from Michael Nania of Gang Green Nation.
Look at that! So science-y. The first chart studies 1st round QBs drafted from 1996 to 2015. The second chart highlights just those drafted between 2008 and 2015. In the first chart, we can see that QBs who played all 16 games their first season went on to average at least 7 wins a year in their career. Those who started less went on to average 3.8, with Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers serving as major outliers that skew the results. This trend is actually more intense in recent history, as demonstrated by the second chart. In fact, the most successful 1st-round QB in that 8-year span with less than 12 rookie starts was Josh Freeman.
I’m aware that as with all statistics, these charts are like bikinis: what they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital. Obviously you’ll play your rookie QB right away if he looks awesome in camp…and Dwayne Haskins did not look awesome in camp. Guys like Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning did look awesome, which is why they started every game. In other words, I’m aware that these charts aren’t all that telling. But you’ve still got to play Haskins because Keenum is average at best, and Dwayne’s physical abilities make for a higher ceiling. He has more tools in the box, plain and simple. It seems like a no-brainer to me. We all knew he’d have a rough transition to the NFL considering his brief college career, and with a grand total of one legitimate receiving threat, he’s bound to struggle just like Keenum and all 5 of the other QBs we’ve started in 2 years.
The Redskins actually kept things competitive for most of the game yesterday. Both teams fumbled on their first drives, then scored 2 field goals apiece. Unlike last week against San Francisco, the Redskins sustained some substantial drives against Minnesota, including ones of 72 yards, 50 yards, and 63 yards. Adrian Peterson ran hard and tallied 76 yards on 14 carries for the night, and Terry McLaurin did his best to haul in 4 catches on 6 targets for 39 yards through the air. The Vikings snuck in a TD to make the score 13 – 6 late in the second quarter, but things were shockingly hopeful with the Redskins set to receive in the second half.
The game-killing moment came late in the third quarter, with the score 16 – 9 and the Redskins driving after a clutch defensive stop. Haskins fired a deep pass to McLaurin that sailed over the receiver’s head and into the arms of Vikings safety Anthony Harris. Tough break; it was a great play call and a great read, the pass just got away from Haskins. The Vikings responded by marching 59 yards to kick another field goal and essentially put the game out of reach.
The offense’s problems are glaring on this team, but the defensive problems are a bit more difficult to suss out. As we discussed on the show last night, it seems the perfect confluence of poor scheme and underperforming talent. Ioannidis, Payne, Allen, and Collins are all good players unable to find consistent success here. Kerrigan and Norman are probably overstaying their welcome at this point and should find themselves off the team in due time. Everyone else is on borrowed time. Greg Manusky is doing no favors for anyone.
So, here we are. The team is 1 – 7 again, but unlike 1998, it’s difficult to see us winning the majority of our games from here out. This season is shaping up more like 2013, when the team finished 3 – 13 and fired Shanahan and most of his staff in response. Let’s hope something better takes shape this time, once the dust settles.