So What’s the Deal with Rob Kelley, Really?

By Steve Thomas

There’s been quite a bit of chatter amongst the Redskins fanbase and media analyst proletariat alike about the Redskins possibly selecting a running back in rounds one or two of the upcoming 2017 draft (did anyone order a serving of Christian McCaffrey? A side of Joe Mixon, perhaps?).  Knowing my long-established tendency to come down on the side of tossing team needs into my draft wishlist criteria (unlike many others), this seemed like an appropriate time to take a look at current Redskins starting running back Robert Kelley and see what we can figure out about his performance and potential and if we can determine whether the Redskins have a need at running back worth a high draft pick.  It is my opinion that Kelley has legitimate potential as an every down franchise back.  I therefore decided to take a look at a few numbers[1] to see if the data backs up my opinion, or whether the Redskins should consider drafting one of the top available backs.

Before we really jump into things, the following was Rob’s production for his rookie 2016 season:

• 14 games played, 9 games started
• 168 carries, 704 yards, long 66 yds, 6 TDs, 4.2 yards/carry, 50.3 yards/game, 12 carries/game
• 12 receptions, 18 targets, 82 yards, 1 TD, 6.8 yards/reception, 5.9 yards/game, 66.7% catch percentage

Considering that he was an undrafted rookie who was a long shot to even stay on the roster, it was an impressive performance.  The real question, though, is whether he can develop into the classic “franchise back”, or at least Jay Gruden’s version of a franchise back.

The first question to ask is how his production last season stacked up to that of his peers.  The first and likely most accurate representation of a running back’s success is average yards per attempt.  In 2016, 42 running backs had over 100 carries on the season.  Of those 42, only 26 averaged over 4.0 yards per carry:

Rank   Name                       Team  YPA         Rank   Name                   Team    YPA

1       Mike Gilleslee             Buf      5.7           13       Tevin Coleman         Atl        4.4

2       Bilal Powell                 NYJ     5.5            15       Spencer Ware           KC       4.3

3       LeSean McCoy           Buf      5.4            15       Ryan Mathews         Phil       4.3

4       Jordan Howard           Chi      5.2            15       Jacquizz Rodgers     TB         4.3

5       Ezekiel Elliott             Dal      5.1            18       David Johnson        AZ         4.2

5       Mark Ingram              NO      5.1            18        Robert Kelley         Was       4.2

7       Le’Veon Bell               Pitt      4.9            18        Alfred Blue             Hou       4.2

7       Jay Ajayi                    Mia      4.9            21        Tim Hightower        NO       4.1

9       Devonta Freeman      Atl       4.8            21        Paul Perkins            NYG     4.1

9       Isaiah Crowell            Cle       4.8           23        Lamar Miller            Hou      4.0

11     Carlos Hyde               SF        4.6           23        Latavius Murray       Oak      4.0

12     Derrick Henry            Ten      4.5            23        Terrance West          Bal       4.0

13     DeMarco Murray        Ten      4.4            23        C.J. Anderson           Den     4.0

As you can see, Rob Kelley was tied for 18th at 4.2 yards per attempt – good, but not great.  Certainly productive, but not among the select few at or near the top of the list who averaged 4.5 yards or more and who can really change a game.  I could have simply written that Rob was tied for 18th in the league in average yards per attempt, but I included the chart because I wanted to provide a visual representation of the company he kept in 2016 – there are some talented running backs on this list, and Rob is at least in the mix with them right now, after only 9 games started.  Nobody questions David Johnson’s role in Arizona; Rob is questioned in D.C.

Much like I said about Matt Jones last year when I wrote my “So What’s the Deal with Matt Jones, Really?” column[2] (read it here: http://www.thehogsty.com/2016/03/12/so-whats-the-deal-with-matt-jones-really/), it probably isn’t fair to compare a rookie to players such as, for example, DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy, who have several more years of NFL experience.  Therefore, I limited this same list (100 or more carries with 4.0 or more yards per carry) to only show backs aged 24 or younger, and also included each player’s respective number of years’ NFL experience and the round in which they were drafted.  As it turns out, only ten players qualified:

Rank   Name                          Age       Yrs     Rd drafted      YPA

1       Jordan Howard/Chi      22            1                5              5.2

2       Ezekiel Elliott/Dal        21            1                1              5.1

3       Jay Ajayi/Mia               23            2                5              4.9

4       Le’Veon Bell/Pitt          24            4                2              4.9

5       Isaiah Crowell/Clev     23            3            UDFA            4.8

6       Devonta Freeman/Atl  24           3                4               4.8

7       Derrick Henry/TN        22            1                2              4.5

8       Tevin Coleman/Atl       23           2                3               4.4

9       Robert Kelley/Wash     24           1            UDFA            4.2

10     Paul Perkins/NYG        22            1                5              4.1

Rob Kelley accomplished quite a bit in his first year. Being one of only ten backs aged 24 years or younger to have both 100 carries and to average 4.0 or more yards per carry is very much an odds-beating event.  To put this into perspective, 23 running backs were drafted in 2016, 22 in both 2014 and 2015, and 26 in 2013, for a total of 93, to say nothing of the equally large number of undrafted free agents – such as Kelley himself – who have been signed by NFL teams.  Only 4 other running backs drafted in 2016 matched Rob’s rookie year, with none being undrafted free agents.  Only the Browns’ outstanding running back, Isaiah Crowell, went undrafted (in his case, in 2014) and matched Rob’s 2016 production.[3]  Keep in mind that the only rookies who were noticeably better than Rob as a 2016 rookie were Elliott, Howard, and Henry (all of whom being drafted, and two of those three being selected in the top 2 rounds).  It’s fair to say, then, that Kelley ended up as the 4th best rookie running back in the league despite his inauspicious roots and not starting for almost half the year.  As a comparison, Redskins running back and 2015 3rd round pick, Matt Jones, averaged 3.4 yards per carry in his rookie year.

In terms of total rushing yards, Kelley’s 704 yards was ranked just 24th in the league, owing, of course, to his somewhat limited number of carries (168, ranked 25th) and number of games started.  His contributions to the passing game were minimal at only 88 yards on the season. Certainly, that part of his game needs to improve.  Unlike Jones, who is fumble-prone, he did not have a fumble in 2016.

A bit of basic mathematical projection based on Kelley’s 2016 numbers tells us that if he had started all 16 games, his line would have looked something like this, barring injury: 272 carries, 1,142 yards.[4]  That number of yards gained would have ranked 9th in the NFL this past season.  Not too bad for a rookie.  Rob’s year looks more productive than one might have thought when filtered through these lenses.

Rob Kelley did not post the flashiest, gaudiest numbers of any running back in the NFL.  Nonetheless, he’s beaten quite a few odds already, from unheralded running back with off-the-field problems at Tulane and seemingly little shot to make the NFL to quality starting running back for the Redskins in less than a year.  The odds I’ve discussed here say that, although running backs don’t have to necessarily be drafted at the top of the draft, they don’t just “grow on trees”, despite the commonly held belief, and the Redskins seem to have hit on one who has thusfar defied all expectations to prove that he is a quality player.  Remember, Kelley will continue to improve with experience.  Is he an elite game-changer like Zeke Elliott and Le’Veon Bell?  Perhaps not, but he has proven potential to be a front-line back.  There’s no guarantee that a drafted running back will even be able to match Rob’s production, to say nothing of improving on Kelley to the point of justifying the draft pick.  Given the holes elsewhere on the roster, the Redskins’ braintrust would be wise to let him develop for at least one more season through increased carries and usage and look elsewhere at the top of the draft.

Let me know your thoughts by leaving a comment here or tweeting us at @thehogsty.

 

 

[1] Data courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com and www.drafthistory.com.

[2] As an aside, Matt Jones was definitely inconsistent in 2016, but improved over his rookie year and ended up averaging 4.6 yards per attempt, thanks to a few outstanding games, when he was benched after week 7.  His benching therefore seemed to be more about his continuing fumbling problem more than anything else.

[3] Crowell averaged 4.1 yards per attempt on 148 attempts as a rookie for the Browns in 2014, and improved to 4.8 in 2016 despite playing for a bad team like Cleveland.  He might be Rob’s closest comparison in terms of production of undrafted rookie running backs.

[4] He averaged 17 carries per game over the 9 games he started.