So What’s the Deal with Matt Jones, Really?

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by Steve Thomas

On the surface, Matt Jones has it all: prototypical running back size – built like a truck, actually – and possesses all of the necessary athletic measureables, big-time collegiate program background; plus, relatively high draft pick. It seems reasonable for both the team and fans alike to place lofty expectations on him as the next great Redskins running back. Unfortunately, though, his first year did not go quite as planned, as he suffered from a lack of consistency, generally poor production, and had a serious fumbling problem. Despite all of those issues, Jones showed enough promise for the coaching staff to name him as the first string running back this coming season, and for the general manager to elect to not bring in serious competition at the position. Given this, it appears to be a good time to do an in-depth analysis of the numbers to find out how Jones stacks up against his peers and what we can expect from him going forward1.

Those of you who have been regular listeners to the show know that I have consistently held, shall we say, a less than favorable opinion about Matt Jones’ potential as a feature back. Before you scream “bias!” and begin to think that this will be nothing be a Matt Jones hit piece, please understand I went into this analysis without a predetermined conclusion. We all watched last season’s running game suffer through a difficult season, with sporadic success at best, and the data will show what the data will show. This is not an effort on my part to prove that Jones is or is not good enough to serve as the team’s feature back; rather, I simply want to find out whether the data supports the Redskins’ decision.

Jones is obviously a young player who is entering his second year in the NFL, and at this conjuncture in his career, development and progress as a player is key. No one should expect Jones to be a fully formed player at this stage, but it is more than fair to compare his performance metrics to other young running backs. However, he is now a starting running back, so a comparison to other starting running backs around the NFL is also relevant and fair. So, throughout this column, I will show statistics both in comparison to all NFL running backs and also just to running backs aged 24 and younger for both rushing and receiving.

First, this is what Jones accomplished during the 2015-16 season:

● 144 carries, 490 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, 3 TDs, 5 fumbles
● 19 receptions, 304 yards, 16.0 yards per reception, 1 TD

Former Redskins running back Alfred Morris eclipsed Jones in all of the major rushing categories except touchdowns last season, despite a third straight season of decline in output:

● 202 carries, 751 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, 1 TD, 0 fumbles

Morris did not produce nearly what Jones produced as a receiver:

● 10 receptions, 55 yards, 5.5 yards per reception, 0 TDs

Regardless of the statistics, as you all know, fan favorite Morris was allowed to move on to division rival dallas.

Rushing Productivity

A raw rushing yardage comparison of Jones, a second string player, to starters is not a completely fair and useful proposition; nonetheless, for the sake of presenting the complete picture of this player in comparison to the rest of the NFL, here it is – Jones was 42nd out of 96 in the NFL in total rushing yards in 2015:

Total Rushing Yards
Rk   Tm Yds   Rk   Tm Yds
1 Adrian Peterson MIN 1485   11 Matt Forte CHI 898
2 Doug Martin TAM 1402   12 LeSean McCoy BUF 895
3 Todd Gurley STL 1106   13 Lamar Miller MIA 872
4 Darren McFadden DAL 1089   14 Ronnie Hillman DEN 863
5 Chris Ivory NYJ 1070   15 Rashad Jennings NYG 863
6 Latavius Murray OAK 1066   16 Thomas Rawls SEA 830
7 Devonta Freeman ATL 1056   17 Chris Johnson ARI 814
8 Jonathan Stewart CAR 989   18 Jeremy Hill CIN 794
9 Frank Gore IND 967   19 Mark Ingram NOR 769
10 DeAngelo Williams PIT 907   20 Eddie Lacy GNB 758
          …      
          42 Matt Jones WAS 490

 

Clearly, a significant number of running backs throughout the NFL, both feature backs and players who either shared carries or were second string, eclipsed Jones’ yardage output.

Because gross yardage output has statistical limitations and is not the only measure of a successful running back, we will take a look at average yards per carry. This is a much more accurate way of evaluating a running back’s success, provided that he has a statistically relevant number of carries (Jones, at 144 carries, more than meets this standard). Jones was 80th out of 96 eligible running backs in the NFL in yards per carry in 2015:

Yards per Attempt
Rk   Tm Y/A   Rk   Tm Y/A
1 Chris Thompson WAS 6.2   14 Dion Lewis NWE 4.8
2 Mike Gillislee BUF 5.7   16 Giovani Bernard CIN 4.7
3 Thomas Rawls SEA 5.6   16 C.J. Anderson DEN 4.7
3 Karlos Williams BUF 5.6   18 Darren McFadden DAL 4.6
3 Spencer Ware KAN 5.6   18 Mark Ingram NOR 4.6
6 Kerwynn Williams ARI 5.3   18 David Johnson ARI 4.6
7 Jerick McKinnon MIN 5.2   20 Adrian Peterson MIN 4.5
8 Jamaal Charles KAN 5.1   20 DeAngelo Williams PIT 4.5
9 Ryan Mathews PHI 5   20 Lamar Miller MIA 4.5
9 Jonathan Grimes HOU 5   20 Tevin Coleman ATL 4.5
11 Doug Martin TAM 4.9   20 Bilal Powell NYJ 4.5
11 Le’Veon Bell PIT 4.9   20 Dexter McCluster TEN 4.5
11 Charles Sims TAM 4.9   20 Christine Michael 2TM 4.5
14 Todd Gurley STL 4.8   …      
          80 Matt Jones WAS 3.4

What sticks out on this chart like a sore thumb is that Redskins running back Chris Thompson led the NFL at 6.2 yards per attempt. This is not a positive sign for Jones, but nonetheless, he is a young and improving player, so a comparison to season veterans is not still not a completely fair way to predict his future performance. Therefore, let’s take a look at yards per carry around the NFL when the the criteria is limited to the running backs that were age 24 or younger that had carries in games:

Yards per Attempt (age limited)
Rk   Tm Age Y/A   Rk   Tm Age Y/A
1 Karlos Williams BUF 22 5.6   11 Tevin Coleman ATL 22 4.5
2 Thomas Rawls SEA 22 5.6   12 Lamar Miller MIA 24 4.5
3 Spencer Ware KAN 24 5.6   13 Orleans Darkwa NYG 23 4.3
4 Kerwynn Williams ARI 24 5.3   14 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 4.2
5 Jerick McKinnon MIN 23 5.2   15 Ronnie Hillman DEN 24 4.2
6 Le’Veon Bell PIT 23 4.9   16 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22 4.1
7 Todd Gurley STL 21 4.8   17 Bishop Sankey TEN 23 4.1
8 C.J. Anderson DEN 24 4.7   18 Carlos Hyde SFO 24 4.1
9 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 4.7   19 Joseph Randle DAL 24 4.1
10 David Johnson ARI 24 4.6   20 Devonta Freeman ATL 23 4
            …        
            34 Matt Jones WAS 22 3.4

It is worth noting that, of the top 20 “young” running backs, nine were age 24 last season, five were age 23, five were age 22, and one, phenom Todd Gurley, was only 21. While the chart is slightly top-heavy with 24 year olds, it is a fairly good mix of ages, indicating that, while experience is a performance factor, the youngest of players can excel at the running back position right away. The fact is that Jones, in his rookie season, at 34 of 42, was not nearly as effective a rusher even when compared to his NFL peer group.

Collegiate Rushing Productivity

Jones was a productive runner in college at the University of Florida, rushing for 817 yards on 166 carries as a senior. Here is a list of the top 2014 collegiate running backs, sorted by yards per attempt:

2014 college rushing – yards per attempt
Rank Name College Y/A   Rank Name College Y/A
1 Jhurell Pressley New Mexico 9.5   11 Nick Chubb Georgia 7.1
2 Matt Breida Georgia Southern 8.7   12 Ray Lawry Old Dominion 7.1
3 Devon Johnson Marshall 8.6   13 Aaron Green Texas Christian 7.1
4 Kareem Hunt Toledo 8   14 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State 6.9
5 Elijah McGuire Louisiana-Lafayette 7.6   15 Michael Gordon Arkansas State 6.9
6 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin 7.5   16 Donnel Pumphrey San Diego State 6.8
7 Tevin Coleman Indiana 7.5   17 Duke Johnson Miami (FL) 6.8
8 Steward Butler Marshall 7.5   18 Reggie Whatley Middle Tennessee State 6.8
9 Noah Copeland Navy 7.4   19 Alex Ross Oklahoma 6.8
10 Todd Gurley Georgia 7.4   20 Terrence Franks Texas State 6.7
          …      
          131 Matt Jones Florida 4.9

This shows that, while Jones certainly had good college stats and was a good player at Florida, worthy of being drafted by the Redskins, his productivity in college did not match up to the best of his peers, or even the top third of his peers. Jones ranked 131 of a total of 305 eligible in yards per attempt (this list includes quarterbacks’ rushing totals). Much like his first year in the NFL, this ranking is mediocre at best. Even in college, Jones did not excel in comparison to his peers. Jones’ past performance to date does not make it seem likely that he will make a dramatic jump in productivity and effectiveness as a runner.

Fumbles

Jones has been criticized for what the public and many analysts perceived as a fumbling problem. Was the criticism justified? For this question, I declined to look at fumble rate simply because the rate of fumbles compared to number of carries for any running back with substantial carries is going to be such a small number that meaningful comparison would be somewhat lost (for example, Jones had 5 fumbles on 144 carries, which is a rate of 3%). Instead, I simply looked at total fumbles for all running backs:

Total Fumbles
Rk   Tm Fmb   Rk   Tm Fmb
1 Adrian Peterson MIN 7   11 Frank Gore IND 4
2 Melvin Gordon SDG 6   12 Eddie Lacy GNB 4
3 Doug Martin TAM 5   13 Devonta Freeman ATL 3
4 Matt Jones WAS 5   14 Jeremy Hill CIN 3
5 James Starks GNB 5   15 Todd Gurley STL 3
6 Ameer Abdullah DET 5   16 Ronnie Hillman DEN 3
7 DeAngelo Williams PIT 4   17 Jonathan Stewart CAR 3
8 David Johnson ARI 4   18 Ryan Mathews PHI 3
9 Chris Ivory NYJ 4   19 Darren McFadden DAL 3
10 Latavius Murray OAK 4   20 Tevin Coleman ATL 3

As the chart shows, Jones was tied for the 3rd-most fumbles in the NFL. It is worth noting, of course, that the NFL’s best running back, Adrian Peterson, led the league with 7 fumbles (Peterson had 327 carries, which is a fumble rate of 2%). Jones was a rookie, though, so a look at fumbles amongst running backs age 24 and younger is worthwhile:

Total Fumbles (age limited)
Rk   Tm Age Fmb   Rk   Tm Age Fmb
1 Melvin Gordon SDG 22 6   11 Karlos Williams BUF 22 2
2 Matt Jones WAS 22 5   12 Bishop Sankey TEN 23 2
3 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 5   13 C.J. Anderson DEN 24 2
4 David Johnson ARI 24 4   14 Alfred Blue HOU 24 2
5 Todd Gurley STL 21 3   15 Javorius Allen BAL 24 2
6 Tevin Coleman ATL 22 3   16 Terrance West 2TM 24 2
7 Tre Mason STL 22 3   17 Thomas Rawls SEA 22 1
8 Devonta Freeman ATL 23 3   18 Duke Johnson CLE 22 1
9 Jeremy Hill CIN 23 3   19 Ka’Deem Carey CHI 23 1
10 Ronnie Hillman DEN 24 3   20 Lamar Miller MIA 24 1

Jones actually was tied for second amongst his peers in fumbles, so it is apparent that he does in fact have problem with ball security in comparison to other NFL running backs. This is not to say that he cannot overcome this problem (many running backs do, and reports indicate that Jones has been working with a special football with sensors inside this offseason to help cure the problem) – it merely confirms that his suspected problem is real.

Receiving

Jones was undeniably more productive and effective as a receiver than as a rusher, but how did he rank amongst other NFL running backs? Fairly well, but not great, as it turns out:

Receiving yards by RB
Rk   Tm Yds   Rk   Tm Yds
1 Theo Riddick DET 697   13 Matt Forte CHI 389
2 Devonta Freeman ATL 578   14 Darren Sproles PHI 388
3 Charles Sims TAM 561   15 Bilal Powell NYJ 388
4 Duke Johnson CLE 534   16 Dion Lewis NWE 388
5 Shane Vereen NYG 495   17 DeAngelo Williams PIT 367
6 Giovani Bernard CIN 472   18 Javorius Allen BAL 353
7 David Johnson ARI 457   19 Chris Givens 2TM 353
8 James White NWE 410   20 Darren McFadden DAL 328
9 Mark Ingram NOR 405   21 DeMarco Murray PHI 322
10 Lamar Miller MIA 397   22 Kyle Juszczyk BAL 321
11 Dwayne Harris NYG 396   23 Matt Jones WAS 304
12 James Starks GNB 392          

 

Jones ranked 23rd in total receiving yards of 84 running backs with receiving yards. When limited to running backs age 24 and younger, Jones ended up ranked 22nd of 33 total eligible:

Receiving yards by RB (age limited)
Rk   Tm Age Yds   Rk   Tm Age Yds
1 Theo Riddick DET 24 697   12 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 183
2 Devonta Freeman ATL 23 578   13 C.J. Anderson DEN 24 183
3 Duke Johnson CLE 22 534   14 Le’Veon Bell PIT 23 136
4 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 472   15 Ronnie Hillman DEN 24 111
5 Lamar Miller MIA 24 397   16 Jeremy Langford CHI 24 279
6 Javorius Allen BAL 24 353   17 Todd Gurley STL 21 188
7 Kyle Juszczyk BAL 24 321   18 Jerick McKinnon MIN 23 173
8 James White NWE 23 410   19 Damien Williams MIA 23 142
9 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22 279   20 Antonio Andrews TEN 24 174
10 David Johnson ARI 24 457   21 Charcandrick West KAN 24 214
11 Melvin Gordon SDG 22 192   22 Matt Jones WAS 22 304

 

From a number of receptions perspective, Jones ranked 58th in the NFL for running backs:

Total Receptions by RBs
Rk   Tm Rec   Rk   Tm Rec
1 Theo Riddick DET 80   11 Javorius Allen BAL 45
2 Devonta Freeman ATL 73   12 Matt Forte CHI 44
3 Duke Johnson CLE 61   13 DeMarco Murray PHI 44
4 Shane Vereen NYG 59   14 James Starks GNB 43
5 Darren Sproles PHI 55   15 Kyle Juszczyk BAL 41
6 Charles Sims TAM 51   16 Latavius Murray OAK 41
7 Mark Ingram NOR 50   17 James White NWE 40
8 Giovani Bernard CIN 49   18 DeAngelo Williams PIT 40
9 Lamar Miller MIA 47   19 Darren McFadden DAL 40
10 Bilal Powell NYJ 47   20 David Johnson ARI 36
          …      
          58 Matt Jones WAS 19

 

In comparison to running backs aged 24 and below, Jones ranked 22nd (tied with several other players):

Total Receptions by RB (age limited)
Rk   Tm Age Rec   Rk   Tm Age Rec
1 Theo Riddick DET 24 80   12 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 25
2 Devonta Freeman ATL 23 73   13 C.J. Anderson DEN 24 25
3 Duke Johnson CLE 22 61   14 Le’Veon Bell PIT 23 24
4 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 49   15 Ronnie Hillman DEN 24 24
5 Lamar Miller MIA 24 47   16 Jeremy Langford CHI 24 22
6 Javorius Allen BAL 24 45   17 Todd Gurley STL 21 21
7 Kyle Juszczyk BAL 24 41   18 Jerick McKinnon MIN 23 21
8 James White NWE 23 40   19 Damien Williams MIA 23 21
9 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22 36   20 Antonio Andrews TEN 24 21
10 David Johnson ARI 24 36   21 Charcandrick West KAN 24 20
11 Melvin Gordon SDG 22 33   22 Matt Jones WAS 22 19

 

It is worth noting that the age-limited chart is fairly top-heavy, with a full 11 of the 22 names listed being 24 years old, indicating that the bulk of these players have either 1 or 2 more years of NFL experience than did the rookie Jones. So, while Jones was productive as a receiver, he cannot be considered an “elite” talent in that regard, at least when his statistical production is the criteria.

Conclusions

The data tells us that Matt Jones was not productive or efficient as a runner in his first year in the NFL, and did not have a history of excellence as a runner in college. His status as the Redskins’ first string running back clearly rests on scouting reports and the views on his potential by Jay Gruden and his staff and general manager Scot McGloughan rather than his 2015 output. Those men know far more about football than any of us fans ever will (certainly including me), and watch Jones every day in practice, whereas we cannot do so. Also, rushing success depends in no small part on the performance of the offensive line, and as my colleague Robbie Duncan has repeatedly stated on the show and demonstrated in film and photos, the Redskins were deficient at times in run blocking this past season. I am not suggesting that (a) the Redskins are “wrong”, per se, in their decisions regarding the running back corps generally or Matt Jones individually, or (b) Jones will not succeed in his new role, but rather that the data does not appear to support their faith in this player’s ability to act as a productive feature back.

Do you disagree or have thoughts? Please let us know in the comment section below.

 All data courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nfl.com, and www.sports-reference.com/cfb.