2026 Commanders Expectations

May 6, 2026

By Noonefromtampa

At the end of the abysmal 2025 season, many fans were wondered where, exactly, the team was going to go from here. The 2026 offseason gave them some insights as to what direction the team was headed besides having nicer uniforms.

Good News

What are some things that fans can be positive about? Between free agency and the draft, the Commanders went after youth and speed. They made moves to address the lack of a pass rush last season after the defense was severely hobbled by injuries. More importantly, they went with youth at both coordinator positions.

The keys to success this season are simple, don’t suffer a rash of roster devastating injures – yes, every team in the NFL has the same non-injury success key – and having the defense play well enough so the offense doesn’t have to play from behind and have to drive the whole length of the field to score points.

The changes in coordinators were made for two critical factors:

• On offense, bring more balance with an effective running game to complement the passing game.
• On defense, become more aggressive and disruptive to stop drives and force turnovers.

How do teams win games in the NFL? The sexy answer is: come from behind fourth quarter game winning drives. The reality is running the ball well in the fourth quarter with a lead to wind down the clock on the opponent. Defense is about stopping the opponent by forcing them to punt or turn the ball over. The win total at the end of the season will be determined by how well the Commanders execute on those two points.

Impacts of Changes

Offense:

My take is that we see a shift to a zone running scheme that relies on agility, coordination and timing. The running back group now consists of backs who are one-cut downhill runners. Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a 72-yard touchdown run last season which shows he has the home run speed. The question will be whether the new scheme will allow him to gain more than 2.5 yards before first contact. Looking at numbers for D’Andre Swift (3.0) and Jahmyr Gibbs (3.4), the answer looks like yes. Both of those backs are in the Ben Johnson offensive scheme which Washington is likely to employ. Croskey-Merritt averaged 2.1 yards after contact which was above that of Swift at 1.9 and Gibbs at 1.7. So, he has the break tackles ability in the second level of the opponent’s defense.

The second big change on offense will be Jayden Daniels playing under center more frequently. From that will come greater use of play action passing game. Play action can freeze the linebackers momentarily and open up the underneath routes which are routes at which Terry McLaurin and Antonio Williams excel. The big question is how quickly Daniels and other players will comfortable in the new offense that David Blough will install.

Defense:

Washington now has a trio of linebackers who can be used in multiple ways. Leo Chenal, Frankie Luvu and Sonny Styles bring speed, athleticism and versatility to a unit that looked slow last year and missed a lot of tackles.

The team also invested heavily in the pass rush, signing Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Chales Omenihu while re-signing Drake Jackson and Deatrich Wise.  The two leading pass rushers last season, Von Miller, who had 9 sacks and Jacob Martin, who had 5.5 sacks. Dorance Armstrong, who had 5.5 sacks, is coming off an injury. The newly signed players will have to pick up the slack in the pass rush for the defense to be effective.

Will the pass rush be effective enough to help out the secondary? The Commanders added Nick Cross at safety while retaining Will Harris and Quan Martin. They also added journeymen cornerbacks Amik Robertson and Ahkello Witherspoon. The new defensive scheme does not rely on having a shutdown cornerback, but rather uses disguised coverage scheme to mislead opposing offenses. This may entail having a linebacker or safety cover a receiver instead of a cornerback.

How fast the players will gel in the scheme that Daronte Jones has brought from Minnesota is the big question for the defense. There is a significant mix of players who have not played together before so learning to trust and work together will be emphasized in OTAs and training camp.

Was Enough Done?

There are at least three major areas of concern heading into OTAs and training camp. Is there enough quality depth at cornerback? Who is the second wide receiver behind McLaurin? Who is going to be the starting center week 1 of the season?

Cornerback

Beyond Mike Sainristil, Trey Amos, Robertson and Witherspoon there is not a lot of proven talent in the cornerback room. There are a number of rookie and first year players that will need to show they can compete at this level during the offseason and preseason. The Commanders will also probably be monitoring the waiver wire at the preseason cut down date for players better than the ones they already have.

Wide Receiver

It is a tall order for a non-first round pick to come in and be a number 1 or 2 wide receiver during their rookie season. Williams will have to step up to the challenge to help out the offense. We also may see some position movements. Luke McCaffrey may be used more outside if Williams can secure the slot role. Chig Okonkwo may be asked to pick up some of the slack from the tight end position. Currently, the group consists of a seasoned veteran and several younger players whose contributions remain uncertain.

Center

Is anyone comfortable that Nick Allegretti is viewed as the starting center? Is Washington thinking of using other players at center such as Brandon Coleman to get their best five offensive linemen on the field together? With re-signing Laremy Tunsil, overall, the offensive line should be a strength on this team. Moving to a primarily zone blocking scheme should help the athletic linemen on the roster as it is better matched to their skillsets. Being able to establish a consistent run game with play action passing will be a key to the success of the Commanders’ season.

What’s in Store

There are many unknowns regarding what is going to happen this season for the Commanders. The picture will be clearer in August during training camp, but the real tests will obviously be the games this fall.

Vegas oddsmakers put the over/under win total for Washington at 7.5 games. The Commanders play 7 games against 2025 playoff teams Eagles (x2), Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans. They also play 7 games against teams that should have improved from last season Cowboys (x2), Giants (x2), Colts, Bengals and Vikings. The last 3 games are against teams trying to improve, Cardinals, Falcons, and Titans.

Washington will have to play much better than last season to just reach a 7 to 8 game win level against this schedule. My prediction is the win floor is 5 games if the wheels come off the bus this year (and Dan Quinn likely gets fired) and the win ceiling is around 10 games.

Restating the common theme from this post, the team’s success will be based on how well players adopt and execute the new offense and defensive schemes.

Please share in the comments what you think the keys are to a successful Commanders season.