Draft Preview 2024: Quarterbacks, Part 2
April 17, 2024
by Steve Thomas
This is part 2 of my annual preview of draft-eligible quarterbacks. Since this is such an important position for Washington this year, considering their need for a quarterback and the fact that they hold the overall number 2 pick, I spent quite a bit more time and space on this effort than I usually do. We ran part 1 with my rankings from 5 through 10 and probable undrafted free agents on Monday (click here to read). Today’s part 2 covers the quarterbacks I’ve ranked as #1 through #4, which obviously include those who are in competition to be drafted by Washington at 2. Please feel free to comment and let me know what you think in the comment section below.
Executive Summary
#1 – Caleb Williams
#2 – Jayden Daniels
#3 – Drake Maye
#4 – Michael Penix Jr.
#5 – J.J. McCarthy
#6 – Spencer Rattler
#7 – Bo Nix
#8 – Jordan Travis
#9 – Michael Pratt
#10 – Joe Milton
The only two who I view as worthy first round picks are Williams and Daniels, but only Williams is worth a top 5 pick.
My breakout on each of my top 4 players is below:
#1: Caleb Williams (6’1” / 214): Williams, who is a native of Washington D.C. and a graduate of Gonzaga College High School, spent his freshman year at the University of Oklahoma under head coach Lincoln Riley. Williams transferred after the season, following Riley to USC. Williams played in 37 games between 2021 and 2023, and was the starter for the second half of the 2021 season at Oklahoma and both years at USC. In total, he completed 735 of 1099 pass attempts, for a 66.9% completion percentage, with 10,082 yards, 93 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He also had 289 rushes for 966 yards, plus 27 touchdowns. In 2022, Williams played 14 games, and made 333 completions in 500 attempts, for a 66.6% completion percentage, 4537 yards, 42 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, plus 113 rushes for 382 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2023, Williams started 12 games for the Trojans, with 266 completions in 388 attempts, for a 68.6% completion percentage, 3633 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, plus 97 rushes for 142 yards and another 11 touchdowns. Williams won essentially all of the major awards after the 2022 season, including the Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell Award, and the Walter Camp Award, and was the AP College Football Player of the Year, and was a Unanimous All-American. He didn’t win any awards following the 2023 season. He did not test or throw at the Combine.
Williams’ film showed that he has elite arm strength and the ability to make every throw – under the right circumstances. USC’s offense used a significant amount of vertical, downfield routes with RPOs designed to take advantage of Williams’ elusiveness and agility. As a passer, when he’s in the pocket, his throwing motion typically features good technique, with a solid base and footwork. Williams is well known for his occasionally sidearm throws in the style of Patrick Mahomes. However, when Williams leaves the pocket – which happens frequently – he too often relies on his raw arm strength and will throw off-balance and across his body, even when he doesn’t necessarily have to do so. Williams is very accurate in short and mid-level passes, but less so on deep routes, even when not under pressure or out of the pocket. Williams frequently goes off-script by rolling out and extending plays, which caused his release times to be higher than an NFL team would want. He isn’t a runner in the vein of someone like Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III, but he’s an agile scrambler who frequently makes people miss; think Russell Wilson instead. Williams’ ability to extend causes him to play hero ball, during which times he’ll try to squeeze balls into limited space or miss deep while on the run. This mostly worked in college, obviously, but he’ll need to limit these tendencies in the NFL. Williams knows he has elite arm strength and frequently uses it, sometimes to his detriment. One other point to note is that USC was a highly effective running team, albeit almost always out of the same formation, but that threat was a benefit to Williams’ performance. Williams is a bit shorter than the traditional NFL quarterback height, but he’s well built and looks the part.
Williams does have some of the same qualities as Patrick Mahomes and may actually be farther along than was Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech, but Russell Wilson is the better comparison. Both Williams and Wilson have the same tendencies to scramble and extend, sometimes unnecessarily, with both good and bad results. Williams can definitely succeed as a franchise quarterback in the NFL, but he’ll need to go to the right offense in order to do so. This may go against standard logic, despite the style of offense at USC, but I think he’ll actually be better in an offense that doesn’t feature a significant amount of vertical routes, such as an air raid offense, since he’s better in the short and intermediate range. His NFL team will need to find the right balance for Williams, allowing him to scramble – like Wilson – but doing so in a more limited, controlled fashion.
There have been instances in which Williams has showed immaturity and strange behavior, and rumors have circulated that he has unrealistic contract demands. Those things are fair criticisms, and some fans, especially, will hold this against him, although I’m not sure they are important enough to significantly drop Williams in the rankings, considering his other qualities. That having been said, I think he’s going to be a fairly weak #1 overall pick. These issues bring his leadership ability into question, which would obviously be a problem for his NFL future. However, these sort of character concerns can sometimes be resolved during the interview process, to which we don’t have access.
Wilson is the clear-cut top overall draft pick, albeit a weaker one as compared to other years.
Draft prediction: #1 overall
Steve’s recommendation: Top 5
#2: Jayden Daniels (6’4” / 210): Daniels grew up in Southern California. He played and started a full five years in college, including three at Arizona St. (including the shortened 2020 season) and two at LSU. In total, he played and started 55 games, with 953 completions in 1438 attempts, for a 66.3% completion percentage, 12750 yards, 89 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. He also had 617 rushes for 3307 yards, for an average of 5.4 yards per carry, plus another 34 touchdowns. In 2023, he played and started 12 games, and had 236 completions in 327 attempts, for a 72.2% completion percentage, 3812 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, plus 125 rushes for 1134 yards, for 8.4 yards per carry, and 10 touchdowns. He won every major award in 2023, including the Heisman Trophy, the Walter Camp Award, the AP College Football Player of the Year Award, the Johnny Unitas Award, the Davey O’Brien Award, the Manning Award, and the SN Player of the Year Award, and was a Consensus All-American. He did not participate in Combine drills or measurements.
Daniels is an impressive prospect in many ways. He has a thin body type which may get him hurt in the more-defensively aggressive NFL; however, his body isn’t so thin that he looks like he doesn’t belong. Daniels is essentially built like wide receiver. Daniels has a high-quality NFL arm and can consistently drive the ball deep. He can hit receivers in stride on deep one on one matchups. His footwork and throwing motion are all consistently good. Daniels is hyper-accurate in most cases, with a few exceptions, and has a knack for highlight reel throws. Daniels is especially accurate deep, but can also check down to the flats when necessary. He also has a quick release in terms of his physical throwing motion. Daniels’ X-factor is obviously his running ability; he’s an electric scrambler, although he comes across as more of a sprinter and open-field runner than someone who has out-of-this-world moves.
Daniels does have some negatives, however. First, his eyes are going to get him in trouble in the NFL – he has a bad tendency to stare down receivers on many plays, and while he can get away with that in college, NFL secondaries will capitalize on it if he doesn’t improve. Even when he moves off of his principal read, he rarely gets past his second read. Also, Daniels appeared to sometimes wait for a receiver to become open rather than throwing him open, which lengthened plays and caused him to have to scramble. Furthermore, Daniels never – repeat, never – throws the ball away, as his natural instinct when nothing is open is to run. He doesn’t step up into the pocket. That has obvious highlight reel benefits, but it also causes him to occasionally lose yardage unnecessarily and take some huge, earth-shattering hits. He’ll need to change in that regard, or he’s going to get injured.
Overall, Daniels is a very high-quality quarterback prospect. However, he is not a traditional dropback passer. He’ll need an offense that is specifically tailored to take advantage of his rushing ability in a manner that won’t result in injury, as well as his deep accuracy. He’ll need to learn to consistently read the entire field in the NFL and will benefit from sitting for some time instead of immediately being handed a starting job. I don’t think he’ll be a west coast offense-style quarterback.
Daniels has weaknesses which cause him to probably not be worth the #2 overall pick, although he is definitely a first round pick. Washington will probably need to overdraft him at 2 in order to get a quarterback.
Draft prediction: Top 5
Steve’s recommendation: Top half of round 1
#3: Drake Maye (6’4” / 223): Maye, who is originally from Charlotte, North Carolina, played 30 games in 3 seasons at the University of North Carolina. He only played 4 games in 2021, as backup to now-Washington quarterback Sam Howell, with 14 games in 2022 and 12 in 2023. In total, he completed 618 passes in 952 attempts, for a 64.9% completion percentage, 8018 yards, 63 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. In 2022, he completed 342 completions in 517 attempts, for a 66.2% completion percentage, 4321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and earned the ACC Player of the Year Award and First-Team All-ACC honors. His performance in 2023 fell off somewhat, with 269 completions in 425 attempts, a 63.3% completion percentage, 3608 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, and earned Second-Team All-ACC honors. He did not test or throw at the Combine.
Maye has an NFL-quality arm, looks the part, and has a highlight reel full of great throws. He’s also fairly mobile for a bigger quarterback – he’s not going to win any awards in the 40 yard dash, but he knows how to climb the pocket and then scramble when necessary. However, those highlights don’t tell the whole story. The other side of the story is that Maye is inconsistent, with strange, bad footwork in pressure situations, has an elongated throwing motion, is prone to significant inaccuracies and often fails to read the field. He processes slowly, which causes a slow release, incompletions, and interceptions, and has a tendency to telegraph his throws. Maye can be streaky; when things are going well for the team, he looks great, but he can fall apart and not recover when either facing better teams or when the game isn’t going well. It’s the last part that worries me the most about him.
Maye is a quarterback who will need to be allowed to develop slowly, on his own schedule, in order to succeed in the NFL. If he’s drafted early, by a bad team, his lower floor means that he has a pretty big potential of being a bust. If an NFL team is going to draft Maye high, they would be best served by not forcing him to start right away.
As a prospect, Maye is a risk, and his inconsistencies and weaknesses are too much to spend a first round pick on him, especially the #2 overall pick. He’s a bigger risk than Daniels. That having been said, some team definitely will take a chance on him anyway.
Draft prediction: Top 5
Steve’s recommendation: Top of round 2
#4: Michael Penix Jr. (6’2” / 216): Penix was born in Tennessee but went to High School in Florida. He played for Indiana University from 2018 through 2021, then transferred to the University of Washington for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In total, he played 49 games, starting in 2019 through 2023, with 1067 completions in 1685 attempts, for a 63.3% completion percentage, 13741 yards, 96 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions. He is left-handed. In 2023, Penix played in 15 games, with 363 completions in 555 attempts, for a 65.4% completion percentage, 4903 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He won the 2023 Maxwell award and was also named a First-Team All-American. Penix was a Second-Team All-Big 10 selectee in 2020 and Second-Team All-Pac-12 selectee in 2022.
Penix did not participate in testing at the NFL Combine, although his hands were measured at 10.5 inches. However, he did test at his Pro Day, running the 40 yard dash in an unofficial time of between 4.56 and 4.59, jumping 36.5 inches in the vertical leap and 10’5” in the standing broad jump.
Penix is a classic high-floor, low-ceiling pocket passer. When he has time in the pocket, he demonstrates a high level of accuracy in tight windows, and has become well-known for his highlight reel deep throws. Penix has a quick release and significant arm strength without having to go through a long wind-up. He may be the best in this year’s class reading the field; he consistently processes his reads on a regular basis. Penix is not a mobile quarterback, but he is good at climbing the pocket and scrambling when necessary, which means that he will be able to evade NFL pass rushes. The traditional view of his game is that he needs to be in an offense that focuses on vertical passing, but in my view, he would be a very solid fit in a west coast offense in the NFL.
However, Penix has some significant negatives. First, his positives come when he has a clean pocket. The University of Washington had a very good offensive line, so he spent much of his 2023 season with a significant amount of time to process each play. The problem is that his performance suffers pretty significantly under pressure, including in his vaunted vertical passing game, and that’s going to happen quite a bit in the NFL. With pressure, his accuracy and touch suffers more than some others in this draft class. In addition, under pressure, Penix can miss reads – some wide open – and lose touch. Penix also has a tendency to throw into risky windows and relied upon his receivers, including probable first round pick Rome Odunze. That has the possibility of going wrong in the NFL if he isn’t drafted by a team that can’t recreate the circumstances Penix had at the University of Washington, namely a quality offensive line and a big, elite wide receiver.
Penix’s biggest negative, though, is his injury history. For those wondering why Penix, who will be 24 in May, spent six seasons in college football, here’s his injury history:
- October 20, 2018: torn right ACL
- November 2, 2019: fractured right shoulder clavicle
- November 28, 2020: torn right ACL
- October 2, 2021: separate of right shoulder A/C joint
Simply put, teams would be foolish to ignore this kind of injury history, since he’s suffered four separate season-ending injuries. The shoulder injuries were not to his throwing shoulder, which is good, but two separate torn ACLs is concerning. We don’t have access to his medical records, obviously, but NFL teams would be wise to be cautious. I think his injury history is going to depress his draft value.
In summary, Penix is a classic NFL pocket passer, but one who needs help to succeed. He isn’t dynamic in the same way that others in his draft class ranked above him are, and he’s going to need help around him to succeed in the NFL.
Despite his significant upsides, I can’t in good conscience advocate for a quarterback with his level of injury history to the drafted in the first round, at least not without having real information about his health, which we obviously don’t have.
Draft prediction: bottom of round 1 – top of round 2
Steve’s recommendation: round 2