Draft Preview: Running Back Prospects

March 22, 2024

by David Earl

Tier 1 Prospects

While this draft doesn’t boast the top-end talent as did last year’s event, B’Jon Robinson, Jonathon Brooks, and Jaylen Wright head this year’s list. Many tend to have Brooks cemented at the top of their boards, Jaylen Wright’s experience gives him an edge as the top 3-down runner as I see it unfold. A running back with great balance and lateral movement combined with being a natural pass-catcher is a make-up most should covet. Especially given his patience as a runner behind his blocks, Brooks is a true 3-down running back. Wright could sneak into the late first round, but both  runners are projected as early to mid-second round selections.

Player	Height	Weight	40 Yard Dash	Broad Jump	10 Yard Split	Next Gen Stat Score
Jonathon Brooks, Texas	6’0″	216	4.45	NA	NA	80
Prospect Grade 6.38: “Will eventually be plus starter”	Excellent footwork and quick feet to avoid oncoming tacklers to go with great contact balance. Along with great agility and vision, his ability as a pass catcher separates him from most in this class. The biggest concerns are his limited time as a starter plus he can struggle in the open field as a runner at times not making the consistent small gain into a bigger play.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee	5’10”	210	4.38	11’2″	1.55	79
Prospect Grade 6.33: “Will eventually be plus starter”	A strong and violent runner with excellent contact balance. His lateral movement allows him to take an inside run outside for a sizeable gain. Extremely patient runner behind his blocks with good vision and is very decisive in his moves. Natural pass catcher but needs refinement in route running. Although he runs with a violent approach, he lacks the build and power element to break many tackles.

Remainder Potential Day Two Picks

Trey Benson has the talent to be mentioned in tier 1 but a severe knee injury in 2020 brings doubt about his potential longevity in the league. He’s fastest runner of this year’s class, with a 4.39 second forty, and also an impressive 1.52-second 10-yard split, both of which makes him a very interesting option. If his knee can hold up and manage any potential long-term issues that may arise, this 6’0″ and 210 lbs runner could very well be a solid featured back. His hands are certainly not elite but he is a reliable receiver who can handle the short area of the field like screens exceptionally well. Marshawn Lloyd is the one to watch in this group. His overall body control, balance, and lateral ability make him a difficult runner to bring down after first contact. The major concern in his running style – his low ball positioning when running as it makes him very susceptible to turnovers.

Player	Height	Weight	40 Yard Dash	Broad Jump	10 Yard Split	Next Gen Stat Score
Blake Corum, Michigan	5’8″	205	4.53	NA	1.58	79
Prospect Grade 6.24: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	Elusive runner in tight spaces and maintains good pad level and balance to typically elude the first would-be tackler. Hits the whole with quickness and has the burst to break a long run. Good receiver from the position but lacks depth in the route tree and occasionally lacks focus resulting in bad drops. He won’t offer much as a pass blocker and his injuries plus limited action in college may have teams shy away from him being a featured runner.
Trey Benson, Florida State	6’0″	216	4.39	10’2″	1.52	80
Prospect Grade 6.24: “Will eventually be an average starter”	A strong north-south runner with good burst and acceleration. Enough lateral ability to evade would-be tacklers in short area runs while being more limited on outside runs. Solid hands as a receiver but struggles in pass protection. A severe knee injury in the 2020 season could be a concern in longevity.
Bucky Irving, Oregon	5’9″	192	4.55	9’7″	1.54	76
Prospect Grade 5.98: “Average backup or special-teamer”	Accelerates quickly into top-end speed and is very decisive in his decisions. Excellent vision but could be more patient behind his blocks. Effective in the short passing game although limited in his route tree. Struggles in pass protection and his build could limit a larger workload as a feature running back.
Marshawn, Lloyd, USC	5’9″	220	4.46	9’10”	1.56	75
Prospect Grade 6.18: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	His quick burst and acceleration combined with great lateral ability and body control make him tough to bring down in the open field. Excellent control after contact plus the ability to start and stop quickly leads to excellent yards after contact. Vision for developing run lanes is a concern plus carrying to ball low results in too many negative plays.

The Mid-Tier Running Backs

This group are runners who bring concerns like lack of vision, being too one-dimensional, and so on. The one name that stands out here is Dylan Laube from New Hampshire. He has a more compact frame that may lack true breakaway speed but his 10-yard split, 1.52 seconds, supports the analysis that he has a very quick first step after the catch. If he can develop more patience and have better lane recognition, Dylan could become a very good and effective committee running back. Will Shipley from Clemson may very well be the best receiving running back in this draft. He won’t be a grind-it-out runner between the tackles, but his ability to work in space may be second to no one on this list. Shipley is a dynamic piece in the passing game as his refined route-running ability allows an offensive coordinator to move him outside as a receiver.

Player	Height	Weight	40 Yard Dash	Broad Jump	10 Yard Split	Next Gen Stat Score
Audric Estime, Notre Dame	5’11”	221	4.71	10’5″	1.58	76
Prospect Grade 5.99: “Average backup or special-teamer”	Good vision, strong lower body power, and good contact balance allow him to be a reliable in between the tackles runner. Will run through contact typically gaining positive yards and has deceptive quickness to get to the outside. He is not a refined pass receiver and doesn’t offer much in pass protection thus limiting him from potentially being a 3 down back.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin	6’1″	235	4.46	9’9″	NA	75
Prospect Grade 6.10: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	Natural pass receiver with a quick burst after the catch to gain additional yards. Aggressively finishes runs and maintains balance through contact. Needs work to expand his route tree execution and can be a bit too upright in running style at times.
Will Shipley, Clemson	5’11”	206	4.39	10’2″	NA	71
Prospect Grade 6.16: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	Fluid pass receiver and very refined as a route runner. His reliable hands with his lateral agility and balance make for a strong player in the passing game. While an instinctive runner in space, he isn’t going to be a reliable grinding-it-out runner in between the tackles. Best suited in a committee approach.
Dylan Laube, New Hampshire	5’10”	206	4.54	9’10”	1.52	73
Prospect Grade 5.97: “Average backup or special-teamer”	His biggest concern is the impatience shown as a runner and will tend to give up on a developing inside run to the outside for a bigger play. Does run with good power and balance typically gaining positive yards. A naturally strong receiver with a great burst after the catch. His instincts after the catch make him very dangerous in open space.
Dillon Johnson, Washington	6’0″	217	4.68	9’9″	1.62	61
Prospect Grade 5.89: “Average backup or special-teamer”	Strong route runner with very reliable hands and a great burst after the catch. Good combination of power and speed making him not only a good inside runner but capable of bouncing a run outside. Doesn’t pass protect very well and will occasionally misjudge an angle on blocks. Although he is quick after the catch he does struggle with elusiveness in the open field.

The Late-Round Talent

The one name not on this list with some interesting upside is Frank Gore Jr. out of Southern Miss. At 5’8″ and 201lbs, he does not project as an every-down feature running back. The son of NFL star Frank Gore is a solid multi-purpose runner who brings a good blend of power and a solid feel for the passing game. He isn’t a great elusive runner but will quickly hit his top-end speed as he is a very good in-line runner. Has patience and instincts as a runner but will struggle to gain separation in traffic. Ultimately, he’s a developmental player who will certainly have to earn his spot through his special teams play.

Player	Height	Weight	40 Yard Dash	Broad Jump	10 Yard Split	Next Gen Stat Score
Ray Davis, Kentucky	5’8″	211	4.52	9’11”	1.56	74
Prospect Grade 6.17: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	While he won’t be a liability in the passing game as a receiver, he is best suited as a between-tackle power runner. Maintains a low pad level throughout his runs with power and enough elusiveness that makes him hard to tackle on first contact. Lacks top-end speed to break away and struggles in pass protection.
Isaac Guerendo, Louisville	6’0″	221	4.33	10’9″	1.55	74
Prospect Grade 6.15: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	Plays with some power and elusiveness as a runner but lacks the top-end speed needed for the next level. Excellent run blocker and will stand up well against the blitz. Doesn’t pose as a true physical runner and tends to play too upright, especially in congested areas.
Isaiah Davis, South Dakota St	6’0″	218	4.57	9’11”	NA	73
Prospect Grade 6.14: “Good backup with the potential to develop into a starter”	Plays with good contact balance and is quick on his feet making him tough to bring down on first contact. Won’t be a reliable receiver in the passing game and lacks any quick burst after a reception. Is a patient runner and has good vision to find any cutback lanes developing.
Cody Schrader, Missouri	5’8″	202	4.61	NA	1.55	68
Prospect Grade 6.00: “Traits or talent to be an above-average backup”	While reliable in the passing game and tracks the ball well, he lacks the speed and burst after the catch. Won’t break away from defenders after the catch but his vision and power as a runner make him a good downhill running back. His low pad level and good run balance make him hard to bring down after the first tackle. Even though he shows a good natural receiving ability his best asset is as a downhill runner.

Note: The following evaluations are a compilation of NFL draft combine numbers, Draft Buzz breakdown, and Lance Zierlein’s overall prospect grade. The Next Gen score is a combined rating of overall production score and athleticism grade compared against their peers.