Roster Management During Ron Rivera’s Tenure

November 29, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

Josh Harris and the new owners have already made one significant move, which will most likely not the only one made during the upcoming offseason, by hiring Eugene Shen as the Senior Vice President of Football Strategy. He brings a wealth of football analytical experience from the Ravens (2014-2019), Dolphins (2019-2021) and Jaguars (2021-2022). Shen will oversee the analytics and software development areas for the Commanders.

One area in which analytics will be applied is in roster management. As we saw before the deadline, when Chase Young and Montez Sweat were traded for draft picks, there will be a more methodical approach to evaluating talent on the team and whether players are retained. Free agent signings and drafts will no longer be at the whim of a fickle owner, at at least we all hope based on what we have seen in ownership’s previous dealings with other sports teams). Let’s review what major roster changes were made during the tenure of head Ron Rivera and their impacts.

Draft Picks

There have been four drafts since Rivera became the head coach, in the years 2020 to 2023. Here are the draft classes for each year.

2020 Draft

Round	Pick	Player	Pos	Status	GP	GS
1	2	Chase Young	DE	Traded	34	32
3	66	Antonio Gibson	RB	On Roster	53	30
4	108	Saahdiq Charles	OT	On Roster	31	15
4	142	Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	Released	10	2
5	156	Keith Ismael	C	Released	18	5
5	162	Khaleke Hudson	LB	On Roster	49	6
7	216	Kamren Curl	SS	On Roster	52	45
7	229	James Smith-Williams	DE	On Roster	50	22

2021 Draft

Round	Pick	Player	Pos	Status	GP	GS
1	19	Jamin Davis	LB	On Roster	40	31
2	51	Samuel Cosmi	OT	On Roster	31	23
3	74	Benjamin St-Juste	CB	On Roster	29	23
3	82	Dyami Brown	WR	On Roster	38	7
4	124	John Bates	TE	On Roster	41	17
5	163	Darrick Forrest	S	On Roster	30	16
6	225	Camaron Cheeseman	LS	On Roster	42	0
7	240	William Bradley-King	DE	Released	4	0
7	246	Shaka Toney	DE	Suspended	26	1
7	258	Dax Milne	WR	Released	28	2

2022 Draft

Round	Pick	Player	Pos	Status	GO	GS
1	16	Jahan Dotson	WR	On Roster	20	18
2	47	Phidarian Mathis	DT	On Roster	2	0
3	98	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	On Roster	20	17
4	113	Percy Butler	S	On Roster	23	6
5	144	Sam Howell	QB	On Roster	9	9
5	149	Cole Turner	TE	On Roster	17	3
7	230	Chris Paul	OG	On Roster	2	2
7	240	Christian Holmes	CB	On Roster	22	2

2023 Draft

Round	Pick	Player	Pos	Status	GP	GS
1	16	Emmanuel Forbes	CB	On Roster	7	2
2	47	Jartavius Martin	S	On Roster	7	0
3	97	Ricky Stromberg	C	On Roster	4	0
4	118	Braeden Daniels	OT	IR	0	0
5	137	K.J. Henry	DE	On Roster	1	0
6	193	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	On Roster	6	0
7	233	Andre Jones Jr.	DE	On Roster	7	0

Draft Analysis

The good news is that the Commanders’ draft picks make the roster on a consistent basis and tend to stick for multiple years. In four years, the team has had 12 selections in rounds one, two and three. You would expect a team to get around 6 starters and 4 rotational players out of those picks. Before being traded, Young was a starter as are Davis, Cosmi, St-Juste, Dotson and Robinson. Gibson and Brown are rotational players. Mathis has missed significant time with injury, Forbes was benched for poor performance and Martin was stuck behind the other safeties that the team drafted, Curl, Forrest, and Butler.

Any team that can find starters or players who play extensively in rounds four through seven is doing a good job of drafting and developing players. Charles became the starting left guard this year. Starting safety Curl has been an excellent player since being drafted and Smith-Williams played extensively when Young was injured. Forrest developed in the second starting safety last year. Bates started when Logan Thomas was injured and Bates continues to see a lot of snaps in two tight end sets. Cheeseman become the starting long snapper when he replaced 11 year veteran Nick Sundberg after being drafted in 2021. Cheeseman has struggled some this season with his snaps on field goals and point-after attempts.

The team will have to decide on whether or not to re-sign Curl since he will be a free agent after this season. Shen’s input figures to weigh heavily into that decision.

The 2022 draft saw several players who have seen significant playing time. Dotson has become a solid starter who excels out of the slot. He has had some inconsistency with drops in critical situations. Butler took over for the injured Forrest, Holmes earned playing time last year when injuries severely impacted the cornerback group and played on several of the special teams units. Turner has been on the field a lot but has not contributed as much as expected. The gem of that draft may be Howell, who is showing that he can play the quarterback position in the NFL. That is a hole that has plagued Washington since Kirk Cousins went to Minnesota.

It is too early to know much about the 2023 draft class, but Henry and Jones should get more playing time now that Young and Sweat have been traded. Martin is now seeing action of defense with Forrest injured. Forbes has been inconsistent and was benched for a couple of games while he got his mental focus straight.

Draft Issues

What has been missing from the draft picks are the All-Pro caliber players being drafted, like Trent Williams or Brandon Scherff from past years. In his rookie season, Young  looked the part, but injuries and less than stellar play since returning diminished that hope.

The other big issues are what players and positions have been drafted. When Rivera became head coach, the quarterback position was a mess. Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith all started games in 2020 but none of them turned out to be the answer. In the 2020 draft , with Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne already on the roster, the team felt drafting Young, another defensive lineman, was a smarter move than drafting either quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. How much of that is on Dan Snyder is a legitimate question, since he had a hand in selecting Haskins.

Some defensive players have been drafted well ahead of where their actual draft value, such as Davis, Forbes and Martin. Davis has flashed at times but has not shown to be worthy of the first-round pick spent on him.

Also, in four years the team only drafted two offensive linemen in the first three rounds of the draft. After trading Williams and with Scherff electing to not re-sign with the team, bringing in some higher-level talent on the offensive line would have seemed to be a priority. Instead, the team tried to address the offensive line through free agency, with poor results.

Free Agency/Trades

Free agency is a key way to fill out the roster for those areas a team is unable to address in the draft or need roster depth. Evaluating and determining a player’s value is an important area for the pro player personnel team in the front office. Here are some of the key free agents signed by Washington over the last four years.

2020 Acquisitions

Player	Pos	How
Kyle Allen	QB	Trade
Cornelius Lucas	OT	FA
J.D. McKissic	RB	FA
Kendall Fuller	CB	FA
Kevin Pierre-Louis	LB	FA
Logan Thomas	TE	FA
Peyton Barber	RB	FA
Ronald Darby	CB	FA
Wes Schweitzer	G	FA
Thomas Davis	LB	FA

2021 Acquisitions

Player	Pos	How
Adam Humphries	WR	FA
Bobby McCain	S	FA
Charles Leno Jr.	LT	FA
David Mayo	LB	FA
Ereck Flowers	LG	Trade
Ricky Seals-Jones	TE	FA
Tyler Larsen	C	FA
William Jackson III	CB	FA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	FA

2022 Acquisitions

Player	Pos	How
Andrew Norwell	G	FA
Carson Wentz	QB	Trade
Efe Obada	DE	FA
Rachad Wildgoose	CB	FA
Trai Turner	G	FA
Alex Erickson	WR	FA

2023 Acquisitions

Player	Pos	How
Jacoby Brissett	QB	FA
Andrew Wylie	OT	FA
Nick Gates	C	FA
Trent Scott	OT	FA
Cody Barton	LB	FA

Free Agency/Trade Analysis

From the 2020 class, Fuller has been a steady starter and the number one cornerback of the defense. Lucas has filled the role of swing tackle filling in on both the left and right sides as needed because of injuries. Logan Thomas has at times been outstanding but has been injured and missed a number of games. McKissic excelled at the third down back position, but injuries came into play again and he was forced to retire with a neck injury. Schweitzer started 24 games in three years, alternating between starting and being the key backup guard.

Darby played well but was not re-signed. Instead, the team brought in Jackson, primarily a man cover corner to play in a zone heavy scheme. He played poorly in 16 games before being traded to the Steelers and never saw the playing field again.

2021 was Leno being signed after being a late release by Chicago. He has been a fixture at left tackle ever since. Fitzpatrick inspired some to think that the quarterback position would be stabilized until a long-term candidate could be identified. He did not last one game before suffering a career-ending injury. McCain started at safety for two years and helped solidify the secondary. He was released in favor of Forrest, who became the other starter next to Curl. Flowers was brought back from Miami to shore up the offensive line, but lasted one year before the team went after Norwell and Turner, neither of whom being the answer either. Larsen played well at center, filling in for the injured Chase Roullier. Mayo plays well on the special teams units but is a liability in pass coverage on defense.

In 2022, the team traded for Wentz in the second attempt at solving the ongoing quarterback issue. That didn’t work out either, with Wentz not being an improvement over Taylor Heinicke. As mentioned, Norwell and Turner did not improve the Commanders’ offensive line, with their better playing days behind them at that point in their careers. Obada played well in replacement of the injured Young at defensive end and was re-signed for 2023.

2023 featured another attempt to repair the offensive line by signing Wylie and Gates. Gates was replaced by Larsen as the sacks mounted. Wylie has not been effective against speed rushers. Barton was hurt and placed on injured reserve. Brissett has been the backup behind Howell and Howell has credited Brissett with helping him grow as a quarterback.

Free Agency/Trade Issues

The front office under Rivera has done an underwhelming job of identifying both quality free agents and trade candidates that can help the team. Repeatedly, the front office overvalued players and where the player was at in his career in terms of performance. This had been the biggest general manager issue of Rivera’s tenure. The large number of misses relative to hits in the pro player acquisitions has really hurt the team’s chances by saddling the roster with underperforming players.

Conclusions

Ignoring all the coaching mistakes, the roster mismanagement is enough to remove Rivera from his position with the team. Let’s summarize the positives and negatives.

Positives

• Finding good value at the safety position in the lower rounds of the draft (Curl, Forrest, Butler)
• The trade back in the 2022 draft that brought Dotson, Robinson, Howell, and Turner to the roster.
• The free agent signings of Leno and Fuller.

Negatives

• Two failed attempts to find a starting quarterback.
• Lack of draft investment in the upper rounds for the offensive line.
• Poor free agent offensive line additions: Norwell, Turner, Wylie, Gates.
• The choice of Jackson over Darby at cornerback.
• Signing two big deals on the defensive line for tackles which is not a premium position in the pass happy NFL.
• Not signing a veteran pass rusher to bolster the defense after trading Young and Sweat.

If, as expected, the front office and coaching staff are revamped in the offseason, don’t be surprised if the roster gets some significant changes also. The team will have a lot of cap space to work with and extra picks from the trades made this season.

The Commanders have needs at offensive line, tight end, defensive end, and linebacker in the upcoming offseason, before any roster overhaul happens. That list of needs may expand greatly if a roster overhaul does occur.