Washington Week 6 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons

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August 1, 2023

by David Earl

Atlanta Falcons Offseason

With the Atlanta Falcons’ defensive pass coverage one of the worst in the league last season, the signing of top safety free agent Jessie Bates III, who had one of his finest seasons in 2022, may pay big dividends. In route to collecting 4 interceptions, he allowed a completion percentage of 51.4% and an overall quarterback against of 76.1 when targeted. This move, while shoring up the pass defense on the back end, worked twofold by moving Richie Grant into his more natural position at nickel. Then, the addition of one of the better pass-rushing linebackers in the league, Kaden Elliss, also provides help in the passing game as well. His quarterback rating of 76.8 against and his allowed 61.3% completion percentage were among the best of the free-agent linebackers this season. While many will be enamored by their signing of Taylor Heinicke, the real focus should be on Desmond Ridder. Offensively, the Falcons did not add much through free agency even though their passing offense is roughly the middle of the road. They averaged a completion percentage of 61.9% and 172 passing yards per game, which was not nearly as efficient as their top-of-the-league running game. Much of that can be attributed to the ineffectiveness of both Marcus Mariota and an offensive line that ranked 26th in sack percentage. The clear wild card here is Desmond Ridder‘s growth, as they certainly have weapons in Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and the newly drafted Bijan Robinson.

The Falcons’ drafted added a three-down dynamic running back in Bijan Robinson and one of the highest-rated pass blockers in the draft offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron, who projects as a guard. Their already potent running game is not only improved but their passing game (skill position and lineman) looks to be infused with plenty more support for their second-year quarterback. The remainder of their draft was used to fill defensive holes, highlighted by a dynamic edge rusher in OSU Zach Harrison. This Falcons team graded as one of the more improved teams this offseason and, while it’s only on paper at the moment, there’s no doubt they are ready to take the next step if Ridder can prove to be their guy.

Washington Defense vs Falcons Offense

The Falcons’ offensive improvements make this a bit tougher to grade. The addition of Bergeron and a more polished passer in Ridder over Mariota makes me believe their 26th-ranked sack percentage, 8.19%, should improve, but how significantly? Part of this belief is that Desmond Ridder’s sack percentage index of 94% was much better than Marcus Mariota‘s 85% where 100% is the average (over 100 is a better score see Pro Football Reference for details). As a rookie last season, Ridder showed a more polished pocket awareness over the veteran Mariota but clearly had a ways to go. Looking back on Ridder’s scouting report, he doesn’t have the ideal size, any elite-level traits, or an overly strong arm. However, Ridder does possess enough mobility to get out of a broken play, while his post-snap progression and processing skills  will be an issue for Washington. What does this all mean? The Falcons’ additions of Bijan Robinson and offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron to an already elite-level running game should only make Ridder’s second year much more favorable in his growth. This doesn’t mean their offense will have its way against Washington too, though, as their pressure rate on the quarterback is ranked 6th, and completion percentage against is ranked 2nd. The addition of Emmanuel Forbes and a healthy Chase Young should sure up Washington’s 27th-ranked passing touchdowns allowed and 20th-ranked yards per completion. As I mentioned before this matchup is tough to forecast and, until I see improvement enough in Desmond Ridder and what the addition of their young offensive rookies become, Washington should rightfully get this edge.

Matchup Edge: Washington

Washington Offense vs Falcons Defense

So which unit made the more significant improvements this offseason? Falcons adding safety Jessie Bates III and linebacker Kaden Ellis not only helps a secondary 26th in completion percentage against and TD percentage of 63.41%, but the improved pass rush should also help against the overall poor rushing defense. Will this equate to a much better coverage unit even with Richie Grant moving to his more natural nickel position? Although Ellis was one of the more effective pass rushers last season, he was also surrounded by talent on that New Orleans Saints unit that won’t exist in Atlanta, such as Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore. Kaden Ellis will certainly add some life to this unit, but also expect a drastic change from the league’s worse sack percentage of 3.61% and the near league-bottom passer rating of 95.7 might be asking for a bit much. With that said they will be facing an offensive line that is minimally improved coming off a season where they gave up a sack percentage (7.97%, which was ranked 25th, and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt, which was ranked 28th. The difference maker here could very well be Eric Bieniemy‘s play design and Washington’s wide receiving group along with a good receiving running back in Antonio Gibson. Considering the Falcons’ poor run defense, Washington’s running game could do just enough to keep any pressure off the young Sam Howell. This matchup has so many variables that it is just too difficult to pick one over the other so here is my first push of the season.

Matchup Edge: Push

Conclusion

Again so many variables in this matchup make this a very tough game to truly evaluate. While this can be said in most games this particular one is more prevalent. If Desmond Ridder takes the next step and the Falcons’ defensive improvements are significant enough they very well win this game. If Eric Bieniemy can get Sam Howell rolling at this point of the season despite the offensive line’s deficiencies, Washington could run away easily. But neither could be the case and we could have a re-creation of last season where Washington came out on top 19-13 in a game that wound up being an evenly matched affair. If I have to choose a direction, I will give Washington the slight edge after breaking a 3 game losing streak against the Bears the previous week. Washington’s defense will ultimately dictate this game and their offensive line will be saved by the fact Atlanta just does not possess a dominant pass rush. Washington will do enough in the running game and the secondary will most likely get a defensive score. I will take Washington in another comfortable win (the last one for a while) by a score of  27-17 and improve to a 3-3 record as they enter probably the toughest stretch of their schedule.

Next Up: Away at New York Giants