Washington Draft Result and Ron Rivera’s Vision: 2015 Carolina Panthers

May 5, 2023

by David Earl

The Reaction of Pick 16

 

I will be honest about the drafting of Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes: passing on Christian Gonzalez completely floored me after the announcement of the pick. The armchair GM in me wanted to fire Ron and his entire staff and then restructure the whole front office as of course that is what we fans do right? If he wanted a corner, why pass on Gonzalez? Tackle Broderick Jones from Georgia was still there at 14 – why not trade up? Or, with all the top tackles gone, trade back for more assets and take one of the top tight ends, but Emmanuel Forbes at 16? These were some of my in-head reactions immediately after announcing the 16th pick of the draft as my frustration grew. Then after some time researching the player and understanding how he was rising quickly up teams’ draft boards, the selection was becoming a little easier to digest. Yes, Ron could have traded back to get more assets, then draft Forbes, but you also need a team willing to move up too. So Emmanuel Forbes was clearly the guy Ron wanted and even if over-drafting him was the only option that surely was going to happen at any cost. I will add that I respect the hill Ron wanted to stand on to select his guy at any cost regardless if many felt it was a reach of a selection at the 16th spot.

The Vision

Now that my unimportant rant is out of the way, what realization did I come to eventually? With the aid of this piece on Ron’s possible vision of Thieves Avenue 2.0, the picture began to come together. The selections of back-to-back corners in Emmanuel Forbes and Illinois Jartavius Martin potentially add what Washington’s defense sorely lacks in takeaways. While Forbes carries a smallish frame, 6’1″ and 166lbs, he certainly brings a big play mentality. He uses all his athletic profiles extremely well and has an instinct for the game many of his peers do not have. His quick play recognition combined with his 4.35-second forty-yard dash and 1.48-second 10-yard split makes his presence lethal against the short passing game. His 14 career interceptions, including 6 returned for touchdowns, are indicative of this exact attribute he brings to Washington’s defense. With any good, there is the negative too, and that has to start with his slender frame. There is surely room to grow; however, by starting from 166 pounds, Forbes most likely will never be an imposing tackler and may struggle against bigger wide receivers in a man-to-man situation. His aggressive nature will also be his pitfall at times so the back-side coverage must remain alert at all times. As far as Jartavius Martin, a projected 3rd-round player, goes, he does offer more size at 5’11 and 194 pounds but doesn’t bring as much of the athletic profile in Forbes. Martin is versatile and can play nickleback and safety. His route recognition is average but his transition footwork combined with his 4.46-second forty yard dash and 1.47-second 10-yard split times allows him to make the quick play on the ball. Martin’s 3 interceptions, 11 pass defenses, and 2 forced fumbles last season for Illinois provide a glimpse of what his game can become for Washington.

How does all this come together with the current defensive roster to help complete the potential vision of the 2015 Carolina Panthers? Aside from the fact they have no version whatsoever of the All-Pro middle linebacker Luke Kuechly on this roster, the remaining pieces potentially do line up very well. Let’s do a comparative analysis of the 2015 Carolina Panthers vs 2022 Washington Commanders found through Pro Football Reference:

• Similarities: Carolina and Washington recorded fairly even sack totals (44 and 43 respectively), with a difference of 1.4% in sack percentages (6.3 and 7.7, r) in favor of Washington. Washington allowed 6.9 yards per attempt, compared to 6.2 for Carolina, which is just .7 more yards per attempt. Washington finished with 12 fewer quarterback hits 107 compared to 119. Some numbers do favor somewhat more towards Carolina, although both defenses’ pass rush was certainly effective to some degree.
• Differences: The greatest disparities in the pass coverage, which leads to the selection of Forbes and Martin. Carolina dominated in interception percentage, with 3.& compared to 1.8% for Washington, and quarterback rating let up, with 73.5 for Carolina vs 90.2 for Washington. Both units allowed similar completion percentages of 60% but, while Carolina gave up a touchdown percentage rate of 3.2%, Washington gave up a percentage of 5.1%. As Washington allowed fewer yards per game than Carolina, with 191 compared to 234, the expected points (EXP) contributed by passing defense heavily favored Carolina,with 55.14 vs -20.42, which reflects the team’s turnover differential. Carolina created a league-leading 39 turnovers, with 24 of those being interceptions whereas Washington ranked 26th in turnovers, 18 total, with only 9 being interceptions. That is a differential of +21 turnovers, i.e. 46% more, that Carolina had over Washington’s defense, thus giving their offense far more opportunities to score hence such a disparity in the EXP category.

Key Missing Element

As we discuss this apparent vision and what Ron Rivera may be attempting to build, probably the most important piece on that 2015 Carolina defense was Luke Kuechly. He was not a one dimensional middle linebacker, which is all Washington has had under Ron Rivera to this point. In fact, combining Jamin Davis and Cole Holcomb would still only have a lesser version of Kuechly. Kuechly was a 5-time First-Team All-Pro who not only was a tackling machine but was just a different player in the passing game. He allowed a career 78 quarterback rating against generating 18 interceptions. In 2015 specifically, Luke Kuechly was just on a whole different level against the pass hauling in 4 interceptions, with 1 returned for a touchdown, 1 sack, and 5 quarterback hits in 13 games started. He was clearly an important piece on that Carolina defense and a guy that matched up well against nearly every tight end which Washington just does not have. Before you scream “BUT JAMIN DAVIS IMPROVED”, thinking he can be that guy let’s see what the numbers say. Davis allowed a quarterback rating of 86.6, which is an improvement from 107.1, with a completion percentage of 63.5% compared to Kuechly’s 2018 season 66.7% (the stat wasn’t tracked until the 2018 season). As the numbers do suggest Davis has improved in pass coverage, but he still must improve in the run game. He was easily taken away by offensive linemen too many times and was not nearly as instinctive against the run as one would want in a linebacker.

It’s not to say Jamin won’t improve in this category as well, but the point here is Ron Rivera is apparently placing all his chips on his 2021 first-round draft pick to play that Kuechly role. Before you pump your chest thinking he absolutely can, Kuechly was already a First-Team All-Pro in his second season with 6 interceptions at that point of his career compared to Davis’ zero interceptions. The numbers show some promise in Davis but the defense didn’t take that noticeable change when he was playing, unlike Kuechly.

Will This Work?

While I see the potential vision and what Ron may be trying to do, but I believe he’s taking a risk swinging for that 2015 Carolina team that will ultimately come up short. The pass rush for Washington was effective, and the two cornerback additions surely improve the roster from last season, but not having Kuechly may be the ultimate downfall. Washington will certainly be more aggressive and I am sure this unit will surely take advantage of the pressure this front line will apply; however, making up a +21 turnover differential is a tall order to ask for a pair of rookie corners.

The defensive unit that will certainly be improved, but this offense just does not compare to the 2015 Carolina Panthers for one main reason: Cam Newton. As the league MVP in 2015, Newton threw for 35 touchdowns while rushing for another 10 touchdowns. As a team Carolina averaged 4.3 yards per carry in 2015 while being ranked behind only Buffalo at a total of 2,282 yards rushing. Averaging 31.3 points per game, Carolina had a dominant offense that took full advantage of the defense’s turnover rate and produced a 15-1 record on their way to the Super Bowl. Ron may very well be implementing a 2015 vision for this defense but can this Washington offense produce relatively the same as his Carolina team did in 2015? The offensive line was ranked near the bottom in most statistical categories last season with the only major addition being Andrew Wylie. The running game ranked 12th in the league, amassing 2,143 yards on 4.0 yards per carry average supported by an anemic passing game at the very best.

This takes me to Samuel Howell, who Ron has clearly hedged his bets on offensively. Looking at the final game against Dallas last season, there was certainly potential but he does not carry the same pedigree and respect entering the 2023 season as Cam Newton did. While this draft weekend strategy was perplexing to me, as, yet again, Ron just refused to address the linebacker room, I actually respect the hill on which he’s standing firm by trying to apparently commit to this particular defensive vision. I just think the negligence of the construction of the offensive line, and the fact that he the absolutely wrong approach to secure his franchise quarterback will be his ultimate demise after this season. I will gladly eat crow if I am wrong but his quest for that 2015 magical Carolina team falls grossly short of some major pieces.