Are Carson Wentz and the Commanders Offense Being Undersold?

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July 22, 2022

by Dave Earl

Skepticism About Carson Wentz and the Offense

There are undoubtedly mixed views about Washington’s offense among the fans, and many are hyped to a level that may very well be going too far; however, national opinions may be swinging too far the other way when assessing this offense. Let me first be clear: in no way do I think this unit is a top 5 offensive team and may even be a tough sell as a top 10, but is anything outside the top 20 just unreasonable? Many point to Carson Wentz’s mental makeup as a leader in Philadelphia after the 2017 season or his apparent inability (or willingness) to connect with his team in the locker room last season.  In my view, the narrative against Carson has gotten a bit too extreme.  I took a deeper look into the sentiment around him as a leader in the Narrative Around Carson Wentz Leadership Impact so I won’t waste your time on that topic here. However, as far as this offense heading into week 1 that’s another conversation.

Terry McLaurin Makes a Difference

We can talk about Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman and the talent he brings, and I agree with those sentiments, but Terry McLaurin is just on a different level. The one comment that resonated the most about Terry was how he may not be elite in any one category but he’s excellent in every aspect of his position. Add in his production playing with a revolving door of mediocre quarterbacks, and perhaps most importantly, the example he sets on and off the field would make McLaurin a cornerstone for any organization.

McLaurin’s production shows that he’s always been a reliable target for the multitude of quarterbacks over his career. For example, not only did his 33 contested pass receptions lead the league, but they comprised nearly 50% of his receptions (77) and 25% of his total targets (130). This, in and of itself, shows McLaurin’s ability to adjust for the ball in the air and make his quarterback better. While Wentz has one of the top arms in the league down the field, Terry has shown that he can help bail out his quarterback at times, which can eliminate a few bad decisions Wentz is prone to make. One of the more talked about issues with Terry last year was whether the defense’s top cornerback shut him down at times, or whether the team’s quarterback play essentially threw him into the coverage. A prime example of this was the first pass play against Dallas in their second matchup last season. The pass ended up being intercepted on what looked to be tight coverage by Trevon Diggs, but a full breakdown of that play shows differently. McLaurin beat Diggs off the line and then clearly gained separation of nearly 2 yards down the field but Taylor Heinicke‘s pass was not only underthrown but also poorly placed on McLaurin’s inside shoulder.  By the time McLaurin could adjust, Diggs was already in a favorable position to make the play.  This is an example of what the film showed time and time again all year. I won’t claim Terry is uncoverable but his combination of speed and precise route running makes him tough, at the very least, to cover off the line. With Carson Wentz’s arm strength, this should not be a prevalent issue this season. Thus the combination of Terry’s ability to adjust to a pass and Carson’s arm strength opens up the vertical game, unlike these last 2 years, which in turn opens up Scott Turner‘s playbook for so much more.

Overall Skill Position Grades Out Better

I broke down and compared Washington Skill Position Players in a previous column, so I’m going to focus on the 2021 Colts as compared to the 2022 Commanders. Jonathan Taylor clearly ranks well above anything Washington has at running back and debating that would be futile at best when discussing pure runners. What Taylor lacks, though, is an area at which J.D. McKissic excels in the passing game.  McKissic accounted for 80 receptions, 589 yards, and 2 touchdowns in 2020 season.  While Antonio Gibson is not as good of a pure runner as is Taylor, Gibson’s versatility is a near match, with 42 receptions, 294 yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2021. Between McKissic and Gibson, the offense should not be predictable as both are very capable runners, particularly if Gibson continues to grow. Yes, Jonathan Taylor swings the pendulum to the Colts’ side but Washington’s talent and depth here is not a weakness.

Wide receiver is a much different discussion.  Who did the Colts’ have beyond Michael Pittman? An aging T.Y. Hilton and decent but not great player in Zach Pascal were Wentz’s next best targets last season which was not scaring anyone. Washington now has what appears to be a healthy Curtis Samuel, who fills a similar role to what Deebo Samuel does in San Francisco.  Samuel is certainly a piece the Colts offense did not have. His ability to play inside or outside and line up behind the quarterback creates a dynamic in Scott’s offense which Wentz has never had in his career. Provided Curtis Samuel remains healthy he will not only open up the field for McLaurin but can also enhance the running back position.  This, in turn, will only makes the role of Gibson and McKissic much easier. Starting and stopping with Samuel is already enough to potentially outshine the Colts but why stop there? Second-year player Dyami Brown and highly touted rookie Jahan Dotson bring a potential ceiling to this offense that Indianapolis could never field last season.

As far as the tight end position goes, let’s just keep this one simple as their starter, Moe Alie Cox, probably doesn’t make the final roster cut in Washington. There is a real chance Logan Thomas is ready for week one but, even if he misses a couple of weeks, the likes of John Bates and Cole Turner bring much more to the passing game than Cox ever could. Bates is a capable but not great blocker who runs solid routes and displays very good hands.  Turner’s size, speed, and catch radius give Wentz a target, especially in the red zone, that Wentz hasn’t had since his time with Zack Ertz.

Should This Offense Be Overlooked?

Before I discuss whether this unit is being overlooked or not, let me give you a quick hit on Washington’s offensive line. In my Way Too Early Win/Loss Prediction column, I dove into the numbers on the offensive line and where they stood as compared to the rest of the league. Many numbers do not support this unit as an overall top 10 line but 2 categories I believe help Scott Turner’s scheme become a dynamic offense are run blocking stuff rate (ranked 6th) and power run success in short yardage (ranked 3rd). Because Washington will not only have the ability to run off play action successfully but also incorporate a player like Curtis Samuel in the run scheme, the downfield progressions, and targets for Carson Wentz will truly open up. The Eagles were one of the premier rushing teams in the NFL in 2017.  It’s no coincidence that that is when Wentz thrived the most, with an MVP-type season. This is not to say Wentz is that same player today but the point here is the formula for his success is potentially in place. While many aspects of this discussion hinge on some big “what if” scenarios, the talent on this team shouldn’t be ignored. It’s arguably the best Wentz has had since that 2017 season.  Washington’s year hinges almost solely on the performance of Carson Wentz.

As far as expectations for this Washington offense, this truly comes with more of a convoluted answer that seems more of a cop-out but it’s absolutely true. Based on this offense’s talent and the ability of Wentz as a quarterback, the ceiling for this team can easily either just inside or outside the top 10 (range 9-12). Top to bottom, the pieces on paper should make every fan optimistic for this season and to expect many big plays from the wide receivers. Unfortunately, football is not played on paper, and the uncertainties and “what if’s” need to be accounted in fan expectations. Expectations should be tempered until (1) Curtis Samuel can play healthy through the season, (2) Jahan Dotson is able to play at approximately the level of his rookie expectations, (3) Dyami Brown takes that next step, and (4) Antonio Gibson continues to grow as a runner.  Although I’ve made some glowing praises about the potential talent this offense, the truth is that Wentz’s proven inconsistencies in recent years, and the unanswered questions may rightfully label this unit as barely a top 20 offense. Scott Turner, Carson Wentz, and the rest of this offense have all the motivation to prove everyone wrong. While I have said personally that the offense won’t be this team’s problem, this column is not based on what I may feel but simply being as objective as I can be when looking at all available information. I’d be more than okay if you can point to this column in December and say, “this didn’t age well”.