Risers and Fallers: Post-Combine Review

by Jay Evans

March 1, 2020

The NFL Combine has come and gone, but the analysis continues in the next few weeks leading up to the NFL Draft. For draft evaluators, the immediate time after the Combine is allocated to revisiting the tape. Does the evaluation of the tape reflect the production at the combine and vice versa?

The annual “Underwear Olympics” are historically misleading. The number one predictor for success in professional football is the game tape, but the Combine can enlighten scouts to a player’s capabilities.

Players who came in to the Combine and excelled after having subpar film have to be reviewed just as those who excelled on Saturdays, but struggled in the sterile testing environment.

Freaks and geeks have been highlighted in our previous scouting reviews. Below is a list of players who both helped and hurt their draft stocks.

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri

“Albert O” burst on to the scene running a 4.49 40-yard dash and his Nike “Speed Score” ranked as the third fastest (Vernon Davis performance in 2006 was first) of the millennium. As a freshman, Albert caught 11 touchdowns. Hampered by injuries for the next two seasons, Albert finished his final season in Missouri with a meager line of 26 receptions for 306 yards and six touchdowns.

Usage was an issue for him, but one would have assumed the speed Albert displayed would’ve produced a few more game changing plays. The tape doesn’t lie. The tight end is a straight-line runner, shows little technical efficiency in route running or blocking, but he has the athletic traits to be a move tight end.

His 40-yard dash time really is attention worthy, but we need to see more from Albert at his pro day before he leaps to the top of tight end group in the draft. He’s a day two high upside, low floor prospect.

Willie Gay Jr., LB, Mississippi State

There was never a question about his playing ability going all the way back to Gay’s younger days. A top-flight recruit coming from Starkville High School, he committed to his hometown school and instant production immediately followed.

Over the past two seasons Gay has filled the box score on and off the field – 76 tackles, 9 for a loss, 5 sacks, three interceptions, one fight with a teammate (the quarterback of the team no less), and an eight game suspension for allegations pertaining to an academic tutor!

This past season, he had 48 stops, 5.5 for loss, five sacks and two interceptions in 13 games with six starts. He was limited to playing in five games as a reserve (28 tackles, 3.5 for loss, one interception, one pass breakup) during his junior year.

At 6-foot-3 and 241 pounds, Gay ran the second fastest 40-yard dash among linebackers at 4.46 seconds. He also finished second in the vertical (39.5″) and no linebacker had a longer broad jump (11’4″).

He was once a major target of the Michigan Wolverines to fill the vacant “viper” role formerly filled by athletic specimen Jabrill Peppers. The tape shows a versatile defender willing to throw his body into danger, and his energetic style is contagious. This can lead to him playing out of control and Gay can be seen recklessly flying through plays.

It’s hard to gauge the NFL’s draft grade on Willie. This is a prospect for whom more will be defined based upon the interviews with teams. He’s an intriguing prospect who was seen as a late day three selection because of off the field concerns, but if teams are at ease based upon their conversations with him then a mid-round selection would hardly be shocking.

Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Mims has been absolutely crushing the pre-draft process. At 6’3″ and 207 pounds, Mims ran a sub-4.4, 40 (4.38), and posted explosive jumps (38.5″ vertical and 10’11” broad) while running a position-best time (6.66) in the three-cone drill.

Going back to the Senior Bowl, Mims really stood out displaying athleticism and an overall mature game. His long speed was never in doubt after watching Mims’ game tape. It was the short area quickness that wasn’t seen in and out of breaks for the Bears, but his devilishly quick time gives credence to untapped potential.

Mims has gone from a middle-round prospect to someone who may hear his name called at the end of the first round.

Michael Pittman, WR, USC

Pittman has had his camp for quite some time. This outstanding route runner is big and disciplined. The scouts who enjoy Pittman’s game are likely to enjoy bare knuckle fights and peated whiskey. It’s a man’s game and Pittman plays it unabashedly.

The former Trojan came to the Combine and checked off every box asked, first measuring in at 6’4″, 223 pounds and then testing extremely well in the agility and speed drills. Pittman finished with 6.96 three-cone and 4.14 short shuttle. Both of those times ranked among the four best for the wideouts in Indy. Pittman’s 4.52 40-yard sprint is icing on the cake for a man of his size and any team looking for a dominant possession X-type receiver must be giddy after Pittman’s performance.

Pittman must get better at breaking tackles if he is to threaten defenses in the open field, but this is a day 2 pick who is climbing boards. The draft is loaded with receivers, but a team is going to find Pittman in the second round and never look back, hoping they just found the next Michael Thomas.

Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame

Claypool joins Calvin Johnson as one of two receivers with a frame of at least 6’4″ and 235 pounds to run a sub-4.45. I could end the analysis there.

At 238-pounds, Claypool added nearly 10 pounds since the Senior Bowl, because the healthy-bodied Golden Domer was asked to work out at tight end by at least one team. The heaviest receiver at the combine then went out and ran a 4.42 official 40-yard dash (seventh-best) with a 40.5″ vertical jump (fourth-best) and 19 bench press reps (fifth-best).

The tape on Claypool is underwhelming. His route tree is under-developed and he lacks a defined position. For the time being, Claypool’s numbers likely mean he stays at wide receiver in name, but look for a versatile matchup-based offense to take advantage of the athleticism in the middle of the field and out of the slot position. Fourth or fifth round pick and climbing.

Derrek Tuszka, EDGE, North Dakota State

The edge group is one of the weaker positions in the draft. After Chase Young, there is a precipitous drop off in high end pass rushing talent, so it was nice to see a pass rushing prospect seize the opportunity to impress scouts amongst marginal competition.

North Dakota State’s Derrek Tuszka was one of the many smaller program prospects to exceed expectations and is now firmly on scouts’ radars. Tuszka posted by far the best three-cone time of any pass rusher, while adding a top-five time in the 40, vertical jump, and 20-yard shuttle.

Against lesser competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, PFF graded Tuska at a truly elite 91.8 pass-rush grade and generated pressure on 22% of his reps, a rate that would have ranked third among FBS edge defenders.

Concerns about his ability to handle stronger competition will remain, and he is undersized for an ideal edge run defender, but his testing numbers are enticing. Some limitations remain, such as Tuska’s length, and his narrow base is slightly concerning, but there is a path to stardom.

The production was there in college and the questions about his athleticism have been confirmed. A late combine invitee just went from a day three flyer to one of the highest risers in the draft.

Ezra Cleveland, OL, Boise State

I considered showcasing Cleveland in my tackles profile, but the class is deep and his tape is inconsistent. What greatly pleased me about Ezra is that he answered some of my questions and becomes one of the more interesting offensive line prospects after the first two rounds.

After reviewing Cleveland’s play, his athleticism and agility were always regarded as strengths. Ezra delivered position-best times in the three-cone (7.26) and 20-yard shuttle (4.46) and after putting up an even 30 reps on the bench press, he showed functional strength I didn’t notice always on display when studying his film.

Going back to my initial evaluation of the player, I wasn’t sure Cleveland had the length or strength to stay at tackle. There is a lack of nastiness in his game. This may now be due to the fact that it wasn’t needed in order to dominate his college competition as opposed to inability to achieve.

He is raw. His hand placement is all over the place and he needs to reach a second gear in his fight, but the athleticism is there and he is one of the better development prospects at left tackle. He needs professional coaching to clean up some sloppy mechanics, but this is a high-ceiling prospect outside of the top-50 players who at worst could develop into a fluid swing lineman.

Khalil Davis, DL, Nebraska

Twin brothers Khalil and Carlos Davis both showed out their track and field background at the Combine. Khalil is the better player based on tape and production, but if you are a team in need of an athletic pass rusher from the inside of the defensive line then Khalil is a strong prospect.

Khalil led Nebraska in sacks (eight) and tackles for loss (11) in 2019 and his 32 reps in the bench press ranked second. At 308 pounds, Khalil ran a position-leading 4.75 40-yard dash. He plays off balance and is on the ground too often for the athletic freak that Khalil is, and he needs refinement in his technique.

He will struggle to win on shear athleticism alone, but if paired next to a stout run stuffer Davis could make an impact as a speed rusher from the interior. The Husker could come off in the middle rounds and serve a rotational, passing situation specialist early in his career.

Fallers

A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

After initially reviewing the pass rushing class, I thought Epensa was by far the second best option for the EDGE position, but after an extremely poor showing at the Combine, his athletic limitations are extremely concerning.

Epenesa’s 5.04 in the 40-yard dash was one of the poorest at his position. Self-aware, Epenesa admits to winning with strength. His film shows that he was never about bending the edge around athletic tackles. His technique is refined and will bring a heavy game to whoever drafts him. Hard hands but stiff. That’s what he looked like and that’s what he showed.

PFF gave him pass-rush grades of 90.4 and 87.8 in his last two seasons, but the limited athletic abilities ultimately hurt his upside. He was a potential first-round prospect but will likely slide into day two unless he answers some major questions at his pro day.

Jared Pinkney, TE, Vanderbilt

Ooof. After a pre-combine early day three draft grade, Pinkney left Indy nearly undraftable. After a poor senior season, dome thought that he had a “loser’s mentality.”

His 40-yard dash (4.96) was the worst among all tight ends that ran in Indy. His athleticism was already limited based upon his film and he was never considered a field stretcher. Pinkney is a blocking demon and after testing his ceiling is firmly affixed at the TE-2 level. He has a position as an extra body in jumbo sets, but the ceiling is low.

Trey Adams, OT, Washington

Adams had the line of the week. At that moment, the oft-injured left tackle should have George Costanza’d it and left on a high note. The combine was all downhill from there.

Unfortunately, Adams went on to test at the Combine and finished last among offensive linemen in the 40-yard dash (5.60), vertical jump (24.5″) and broad jump (7’8″). Not hyperbole: those are pedestrian numbers and I think I could match those numbers 15 years past my prime.

The Huskie was in my tackles list and my hope was he could be a sneaky good tackle for a few healthy years because his tape early in his career before injuries took their toll was strong. Adams’ pro day will determine his future in the NFL. If his Combine numbers don’t drastically improve he will be looking to land with Jim Zorn’s Seattle Dragons.

Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State

He’s a long, physical corner who played on a dynamite defense and looked ideal for a press defense. He’s not the strongest defender and is someone who might have made “business decisions”, or perhaps he’s just not the staunchest tackler, but there’s lots to enjoy in this corner prospect.

Then came the Combine, and the day really could not have gone much worse for Dantzler.  He posted the second-worst time at his position in the 40-yard dash to go along with a bottom-five vertical. The day was lost right there.

Dantzler posted a historic day against superstar Ja’Marr Chase for one catch and six total yards in their last matchup. He was seldom targeted by opposing offenses and? with impressive tape, Dantzler was a lockdown corner type prospect. The cornerback class is sneaky strong and his Combine performance pokes some wide holes in his game.

He needs to do well at his pro day, but the time has led to some skepticism about the upside of Dantzler’s potential. He’s likely to come off the board in the first three rounds, but it was certainly a disappointing performance.