It’s Time to Embrace the Geek
June 18, 2019
By Eric Hill
Well, it happened just like I always knew it would but hoped it wouldn’t. It was a nice run but all good things must come to an end. The future is here: the Redskins have fully embraced analytics.
With the hiring of Pro Football Focus advanced metrics guru Jeff Scott as director of Football Strategy, the Redskins have gone full egghead. Gone are the days of 40 times, broad jumps and film review. Those tried and true methods will be replaced with average separation, steps before contact and Gatorade consumption per oxygen mask.
I’ve stated before that I hate advanced metrics. They’re the worst thing to happen to sports since the Olympians started wearing pants. The only thing that’s sadder than the fact that somebody somewhere once said “Sports are great and all, but there just isn’t enough math involved,” is the fact that somebody else said “You know what? You’re right!”
A prime example of what’s wrong with analytics is the fact that on a defense with Jon Allen, Daron Payne, Matt Ioannidis, Josh Norman and Ryan Kerrigan, the two highest rated defenders by PFF were Ryan Anderson and Zach Brown. Anderson played roughly eleven snaps last season and Brown was often more out of position than JFK’s secret service detail (too soon?).
Advanced metrics first creeped on to the scene in 2003 with the publication of Moneyball, which examined Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane’s approach to saving his bosses money by not signing good players. Since the A’s managed to Forrest Gump their way to a few ALCS appearances, where they lost to teams that were actually good, it became obvious to everyone that analytics were the wave of the future. After all, Beane was played by Brad Pitt in a movie so he must know what he’s doing.
The fallout of advanced metrics in sports is evident as the focus in Major League Baseball has become home runs, strike outs and defensive shifts and “small ball” has been all but eliminated. The NBA is all about three-pointers and dunks with the mid-range jumper and traditional center going the way of the dodo, and the NHL is nothing more than goals and fist fights because hockey is awesome.
The Cleveland Browns were the first NFL team to fully adopt advanced metrics when they shifted Sashi Brown from his role as General Counsel to VP of Football Operations, because Cleveland. Brown’s vision of finding inexpensive late round gems in lieu of high priced first round talent by using advanced statistical formulas instead of good ol’ scouting wowed owner Jimmy Haslam, again because Cleveland.
Between 2016 and 2017, Brown’s analytics-or-die approach caused him to draft approximately 62 wide receivers and resulted in a 1-31 record and, shockingly, he was fired. The silver lining was that Brown left new GM John Dorsey a treasure trove of high draft picks because Brown’s refusal to use them resulted in several trades back. So, Brown was right? Maybe?
Maybe that’s the Redskins plan, using this metrics guy to trade back and acquire picks for someone who knows what he’s doing. If so, brilliant!
Look, I realize I’m overreacting. Scott’s voice will be just one of many in the front office and probably carry less weight than Kyle Smith’s or Doug Williams’. And with Bruce Allen in charge, it’s all but certain that nobody is going to have too much power in that group. Advanced metrics is merely a tool and can be combined with other proven methods to paint a better picture of a player’s value.
Still, I was told there would be no math.