What’s it all Worth?

May 24, 2019

By Jay Evans

The Redskins have a $118 million offense and a $70 million defense, but the offense that will take the field is missing $20 million due to a “salary cap penalty” in the form of the Alex Smith injury. Meanwhile, the defense is going to have to be one of the best values in the league for this team to succeed as 41% of the $70 million on defense is allocated to two players. The Redskins are unlikely to perform up to those expenditure levels, but fear not, there is hope. Namely, the youth and 2020.

The highest spending teams in the NFL do not typically see the return on their investments when it comes to “pay for play.” From 2017-2018, the annual offensive ranking for the top ten most expensive offenses in the league was middling rich (15^th). The 2017 Steelers and the 2018 Falcons were the only two teams in the top five in spending to finish the following season in the top ten in scoring average. The defenses have seen better returns in value.  Last year, the four most expensive defenses all finished in the top nine in fewest points allowed in league rankings.

How did the Redskins get here?

A disparity exists with most teams between offensive and defensive spending habits. The average team spends around 11 million, about 6% of the total cap, more on offense than defense. The Redskins enter the 2019 season with nearly a $49 million difference or a difference that’s 4.5 times greater than the league average.

After the 2019 draft picks were calculated into the 2019 salary cap, the Redskins have the second most expensive offense in the league. In fact, for a few days they were the most expensive, but a recalculation put Tampa Bay slightly higher at 119.4 mil. If you remove the Alex Smith salary from the Redskins salary cap, they are within $1.73 million of the league average spending on offense.

The Redskins will have over $30 million, roughly 16% of the total cap, devoted to the quarterback position. After Alex Smith was traded to the Redskins and he renegotiated his contract in 2018, the Redskins knew that the next two years would be tough sledding with his cap number pushing the quarterback position into the top 1/3 of the league. Alex is owed $20.4 million this season in 2019 and is unlikely to play at all this season.

The addition of Case Keenum for $3.5 million ultimately became a necessity due to the severe injury suffered by Smith and uncertainty of the quarterback position prior to the draft. The plan to acquire a future franchise quarterback, however never changed.

The Redskins were likely to draft a developmental quarterback the year after acquiring Smith. When acquired, Alex was 34 at the time and considered the supposed bridge quarterback to keep the Redskins competitive during the current period. Alex was never the long-term answer. Unfortunately, the worst possible scenario occurred, which effectively leveled the Redskins with a $40 million salary cap penalty over the next two seasons and for the remainder of Smith’s contract.

Handcuffed by the $20.4 million, the Redskins and their offense should be projected to perform closer to the level of a $98.1 million roster. That puts the Redskins closer to the middle of the league in spending rather than at the top. Unfortunately, that may be a foreboding sign for the 2019 season.

Over the past five seasons, annually the offenses closest to the median in terms of spending finished on average of 21^st in total offense and finished worse than 26^th three times. (All rankings are based on points scored),

The defense is in far better shape, as should be expected considering the focus of defensive-heavy drafting in recent seasons, and ranks as the fourth least expensive defense in the league. Many of the projected defensive players are on their initial rookie contracts or team friendly deals and Josh Norman and Ryan Kerrigan are the only players who will make more than $4.25 million for the 2019 season.

The Redskins rank in the top third of the league in terms of spending, at four positions. Three of those units are on offense and all are in the top six of spending by position: quarterback (4^th), offensive line (6^th), and tight end (1^st overall). The linebacker position leads the way in spending on defense (7^th). The only other two positions that rank in the top half of league are running backs (13^th) and defensive backs (15^th).

The Redskins rank in the bottom third of the league in spending per unit at wide receiver, safety, and defensive line. Even after the lucrative signing of Landon Collins, the safety group ranks 23^rd and the defensive line is 29^th, which includes the newly signed contract of fifth round stalwart Matt Ioannidis.

Looking at the 2020 positional expenditure, they currently have two positions projected in the top five (tight end, safety) and an offense projected to be significantly closer to the league average, in terms of spending, rather than at the top where the Redskins have been much of the past five seasons.

In 2020, only Smith and Haskins currently count against the cap at quarterback, slightly more than $24.5 million, and likely outside the top third of the league when the Cowboys and Patriots renegotiate contracts. The tight end position could see the departure of Vernon Davis and depending on how Jordan Reed performs he could be in line for a restructure or outright release. Furthermore, waiting until next offseason to shed Josh Norman’s contract will save the team $12.5 million with a $3 million dead cap.

The ominous cloud hovering above Ashburn is the remainder of the Alex Smith contract. Had the Redskins opted to cut Alex this season the result would have been a $52 million dead cap number. Management deemed that poison pill too hefty to swallow. I personally agree.

If the Skins decide to wait and release Alex after the 2019 season the contract results in a $32.2 million dead cap, which would carry over into 2021 and severely limits the flexibility the team has in the offseason. Realistically the first time the Redskins can effectively alleviate the “Smith cap penalty” can occur in 2021 when they can save $19 million against the cap and incur only a $5.4 million dead cap number.

Regardless of perceived frivolous spending, the Redskins do have cap flexibility coming in 2020. The one thing that could overcome the inflicted harm the Redskins offense will face this season is the same strength that will propel the defense – the young talent on cheap contracts could out produce their dollar value. It that happens, the Redskins could have something truly scary, simultaneously becoming less expensive and more dangerous.