Josh Doctson: To Sign or not to Sign, That is the Question
January 21, 2019
by Steve Thomas
To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?
Hamlet, by William Shakespeare, Act 3, Scene 1
In this soliloquy, Shakespeare’s character, Hamlet, was contemplating whether or not he wanted to continue living in spite of the struggles and failures in his life. It is one of the most famous scenes in all of literature. What does this have to do with Josh Doctson and the Redskins, you ask? Have you lost your mind, Steve, you ask? Certainly, nobody’s life is at stake here, thankfully. The point is this: Josh Doctson, selected with pick 22 in round 1 of the 2016 draft, represents a big chunk of Redskins draft capital, time, and energy. He was brought in to this franchise to be the wide receiver of the future. He was supposed to be the Art Monk of this generation: tall, talented, athletic, decent person with a good head on his shoulders – the benchmark of an elite passing offense for a decade. It’s safe to say that hasn’t happened, and that’s bad. In fact, it’s a disaster in terms of time and draft capital spent. In the same manner that Hamlet’s conversation with himself represented the pivotal moment in the story, the fact that Josh Doctson has not lived up to his draft status and may be a bust is a key moment in Washington’s near-term future.
Doctson’s rookie contract expires at the end of the 2019 season. The question isn’t whether he deserves a large new multiyear deal, as was the hope when he was drafted by former general manager Scot McCloughan. He doesn’t. The Redskins hold a CBA-granted fifth year option on Doctson that they could choose to exercise for the 2020 season. Right now, he doesn’t deserve that either. The team could also elect to try and re-sign him to a modest, one or two year deal to give him another shot at getting better. What’s the answer, and how much depends on his 2019 performance? Let’s take a look.
The numbers
Here are Doctson’s career stats to date:
2016: 2 gms plyd, 0 started, 6 tgts, 2 rec, 33% catch %, 66 yds, 33 yds/rec, 0 TDs
2017: 16 gms plyd, 14 started, 78 tgts, 35 rec, 44.9% catch %, 502 yds, 14.3 yds/rec, 6 TDs
2018: 15 gms plyd, 12 started, 78 tgts, 44 rec, 56.4% catch %, 532 yds, 12.1 yds/rec, 2 TDs
Career: 33 gms plyd, 26 started, 162 tgts, 81 rec, 50% catch %, 1100 yds, 13.6 yds/rec, 8 TDs
His numbers in three seasons are the rough equivalent of what a top receiver posts in one season. These stats do not show a progression and pattern of improvement that a team wants and expects out of a first round pick. His 50% career catch percentage is ranked 92nd in the NFL for wide receivers who had at least 60 targets between 2016 and 2018. His 81 total receptions is also 92nd in the NFL among receivers and his 162 targets is ranked 75th over that same time period.
The competition
Only three other receivers were drafted in round 1 in 2016 other than Doctson: Corey Coleman (Cleveland, pick 15), Laquon Treadwell (Minnesota, pick 23), and Will Fuller (Houston, pick 21). There were three in round two: Sterling Shepard (New York Giants, pick 40), and Michael Thomas (New Orleans, pick 47), and Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati, pick 55).
The Texans and Redskins swapped first round picks in 2016, meaning that the Redskins let Houston have Will Fuller in exchange for Josh Doctson and the Texans’ 2017 sixth round pick (the Redskins selected Georgia State receiver Robert Davis, who has promise but spent 2018 on injured reserve, with that pick). Fuller has outperformed Doctson, albeit not by a wide margin: he’s produced 107 receptions, a 57.2% completion percentage, 1561 yards, and 13 touchdowns.
Coleman has been a complete bust, having moved on from Cleveland, through Buffalo and New England, to the New York Giants. He has 61 receptions on 139 targets, for 789 yards, 5 TDs, and a 43.9% completion percentage.
Treadwell hasn’t set the world on fire either, with just 56 receptions on 91 targets, 517 yards, 1 touchdown, and a 61.5% completion percentage.
Neither Fuller nor Treadwell have been offered a contract extension by their teams.
Of the second round selections, it goes without saying that the Saints’ Michael Thomas has far outplayed his draft status and is one of the most accomplished and talented receivers in the game. Sterling Shepard has been a revelation as well and a critical part of the Giants’ offense. Boyd has been fairly productive for Cincinnati, with 152 receptions. All three deserve new contracts from their respective franchises.
Six receivers were drafted in round 1 in 2015: Amari Cooper (Raiders, pick 4), Kevin White (Chicago, pick 7), DeVante Parker (Miami, pick 14), Nelson Agholor (Philadelphia, pick 20), Breshad Perriman (Baltimore, pick 26), and Phillip Dorsett (Indianapolis, pick 29). Of those picks, White, Perriman, and Dorsett are busts; Cooper (278 receptions) and Agholor (185 receptions) have lived up to their respective draft statuses. Parker has been fairly productive for the Dolphins (163 receptions), and Miami exercised its fifth year option on him for 2019. The Eagles exercised their fifth year option on Agholor. The Raiders exercised their fifth year option on Cooper before he was infamously traded to Dallas. He will get a long-term deal from Uncle Jurrah.
How does all of this apply to Doctson? Of his 2016 draft peers, his numbers are essentially right in the middle of a weak first round class, none of them earning a new contract, yet. Of the class of 2015, Cooper’s numbers are head and shoulders above everyone else and is clearly worthy of a large new contract.
The two other 2015 players who had their fifth year options exercised, Agholor and Parker, have both been significantly more productive than has Doctson. If you project out Doctson’s number of receptions through 2019 based on his production to date, he’ll be in the neighborhood of 120 receptions, significantly behind Agholor and Parker.
The conclusion here, based on the stats for the receivers drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in 2015 and 2016, is that Doctson’s numbers probably aren’t worthy of the Redskins either offering him a long, big-money extension or exercising the fifth round option. On the other hand, particularly taking into account that Doctson missed most of his rookie year, that he’s been more productive than some of his peers who have been obvious and complete busts. Doctson isn’t down at the level of guys like Corey Coleman and Kevin White. Don’t be surprised if the Redskins decline his 2020 fifth year option but make an effort to keep him on a smaller, short-term contract.
What does his film show?
These are my non-expert observations. I don’t claim to be a receiver guru, so take this for what you will. #notascout. Also, forgive the poor quality of the videos. #notavideoguylikeAlex.
Doctson’s 2018 film more often than not showed his limitations as a receiver as much as it did his strengths. He can use his size and leaping ability to defeat opposing corners, but he also lacks long speed, burst, technique, and agility. To me, he has not demonstrated the ability that should cause the Redskins to want to spend significant money on the hope that Doctson is going to mysteriously morph into a #1 receiver (whatever that means).
Jay Gruden often schemes him open more than Doctson creates separation on his own. Check out this clip from the Carolina game – Doctson is on the outside at the bottom of the screen:
Notice the play design – the Redskins have a bunch formation right in which all of the patterns stay on that side of the field, forcing the coverage to remain to the right and the deep safety to continue to play the middle of the field. The running back leaks out into the left flat, taking the linebacker with him, leaving the shallow to mid-middle free. Doctson runs a shallow slant route to the middle, and with the safety frozen just a bit too long, is all alone in the middle of the field. He does a decent job getting a step on the corner, and Alex Smith throws him open via ball placement, but the success of this play is more play design than anything else. There are countless plays like this from 2018.
Doctson does not have the long speed to defeat opposing corners on deep routes. Watch these two clips from the Carolina game and the first Dallas game from this past season. Doctson is on the outside left in the first clip, outside right on the second, bottom of your screen in both:
As you can see, on both plays, Doctson has the opposing corner one on one on a deep fly route but doesn’t have the second gear to create space, which ultimately led to incompletions. Doctson tries to use his vertical leap and body to make an effort at the second ball in the Dallas clip. This is what he does best, even though it didn’t work on that play.
He does not always demonstrate good technique from the line of scrimmage or have the agility make up for it. Here’s a clip from the 2018 game against the Green Bay Packers (Doctson is on the outside left on the upper part of your screen):
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Here, Doctson tries to jab-step to the left then break off the line of scrimmage to the inside in order to get the corner moving outside, but he doesn’t effectively plant his outside foot and sell the fake. To me, this is seems to be both an agility and technique problem. On this particular play, Smith gets hit in the middle of his throwing motion, so the ball isn’t anywhere near Doctson, but nonetheless it’s an example of him not being able to separate from the corner at the line of scrimmage. Obviously, Doctson has success at this sometimes, but this sort of play isn’t unusual from him. He isn’t winning many battles at the line of scrimmage.
It’s not all bad, of course, and I don’t mean to be overly negative. Here are three clips of his successes (first play, he’s on the outside left, top of your screen; second play, outside left, bottom; third play, left, top):
The first clip is from the Colts game in week two. Here, Doctson is smart enough to slow his route and delay his break inside in order to slide underneath the coverage. Alex Smith throws a good ball and the Redskins get a positive gain (yes, that’s Morgan Moses moving before the snap). In the second clip, from the Giants game in week 8, Doctson tries a similar move as I showed you above in the Packers game, but this time he sells the fake outside by effectively planting his outside foot, causing the corner to move outside. Doctson is then able to break inside into the vacated space to the middle of the field away from coverage (thanks to another good play design by Jay), causing the defender to have to hold Doctson. The Redskins got both the catch and the penalty on this rep. Finally, the third clip is Doctson’s touchdown in the Atlanta game. It’s a fade pattern, corner left. The defender doesn’t play this well, never turning to look for the ball and therefore never jumping to defend; nevertheless, Doctson high points the ball to get the touchdown. This is the sort of thing that the Redskins expected to get from him on a regular basis when they spent a first round pick on him, but it hasn’t happened with any sort of consistency.
What’s all this mean? I think Doctson’s numbers show that his production isn’t worth either a new large multiyear deal or a fifth year option, and his film shows flaws in his technique and the limits of his natural ability. It’s possible that Doctson has a dramatically better year in 2019 and changes his narrative, but at this point, I think he’s worth a small, short contract at most.
What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comment section below.