At What Point Does Washington Decide It’s Time To Move On From Cousins?

It has been 22 days since the Redskins season has ended, and there has been no word of Kirk’s team and Redskins management getting closer to an agreement. That’s fine, nothing to be completely concerned over; however, when the Redskins find themselves in the same position as they did last year at this point the question of “What’s the end game here?” comes into play.
Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins are in an extremely unique situation, especially the Redskins, who haven’t faced this dilemma in decades. Kirk Cousins is a player who was asked by his general manager to prove he was worth the money following a surprisingly outstanding 2015 campaign, and followed through by posting consecutive solid passing seasons, almost reaching 5000 yards in his 2nd season as a starter. He’s earned a big money deal, but has he earned it in Washington? The Redskins’ front office asked their quarterback to once again show he can play like a franchise quarterback, knowing how expensive it would be if their request backfired, and it did backfire. So, the Redskins are in a situation where they “were” willing to pay Kirk and even overpay Kirk if need be if he played to their expectations. However, after Kirk’s season and his agent playing the market game (as expected) can Scot McCloughan really risk paying a potential 13-15% of the cap to their quarterback in an offseason in which the defense needs a complete re-tooling and the offense may need to reload on weapons?
The quick answer to the question is yes they can, but it is not that simple. During the senior bowl presser on Tuesday Jay Gruden stated the Redskins “totally anticipates” Kirk returning in 2017. Bruce Allen on SiriusXM’s NFL Radio stated on a scale of 1 to 10 it was a likelihood of 10 that Cousins remains a Redskins next year. These are comments made after reports this past Monday by Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole stated that not only are the San Francisco 49ers a potential landing spot for Kirk Cousins, but the Cleveland Browns are now a possibility as well. The 49ers are expected to hire Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan as their head coach, and Shanahan and the 49ers are expected to have interest in Cousins if he is placed on non-exclusive franchise tag. Cousins worked with Shanahan for the 2012 and 2013 season, so he is familiar with his scheme and can immediately plug a big need for the 49ers. The Browns have head coach Hue Jackson, who is familiar with or has a similar offense to Jay Grudens here in Washington. Cousins will also fill a big need for Cleveland as well.
Some believe Cousins may not even want to be in Washington after all he’s gone through with the organization, so this entire situation is not one-sided at all and may not be just a money thing here. Cousins was drafted to be the backup to the predetermined franchise quarterback in Robert Griffin III, and was never viewed as anything more by upper management even when Griffin started to struggle mightily. Yes, there were valid reasons – Cousins was inconsistent and turned the ball over at a staggering rate, but this lack of belief in him followed him even into last offseason as the franchise tag was placed on him following an incredible low-ball offer to Cousins. It’s easy to come out almost a month before the negation period ends and state Cousins will be a Redskin in 2017, which is why the leaks mentioned in the Cole article sounds more like a leverage play from upper management. Cousins has always had leverage through his production: with the production he provided on the field he can command quite a bit of money on the open market. Washington last offseason reportedly only offered Cousins $16 million a year, while Kirk was allegedly only asking for $20 million, which was the price of the 1 year franchise tag. Kirk was supposedly asking for guaranteed money of around $24-25 million. This year the franchise tag will be $24 million, and the 2018 tag will be over $30 million.
Again, what’s the end game? As an organization, it’s always team first and never just about 1 player. There are a few outliers when it comes specifically to the quarterback position around the NFL obviously, such as Brady, Brees, and Rodgers, but outside of 8 to 10 quarterbacks, teams risk being hamstrung committing to a quarterback before that team is close to contending for championships. The front office in Washington has never been in a situation like this, and neither has the head coach. Team first method of thinking would convince the fans and media that Scot McCloughan and company are confident and capable of competing without Cousins on their roster. Kirk Cousins will likely be asking for a deal worth $125-130 million over 5 years and although nothing concrete says management won’t pay it, they are showing some of their cards now by hinting that they can live without him. These leaks are subtle warnings to Kirk that if he isn’t willing to play ball with management, they’re willing to let him walk and focus on developing guys already here and bring in talent, including his replacement. It may seem simple or obvious to move on from Cousins if a deal is not reached, but the Redskins themselves will have questions to answer before pulling the trigger on a move of this magnitude:
Does Washington have a solid backup plan if Cousins is not be a Redskin for the start of the 2017 season?
Are they willing to risk a potential down season overall for the sake of saving money?
Will the current staff in place (including Scot McCloughan) survive a down year if the decision to move on from Cousins take place?
The truth of the matter is that regardless of perceived limitations of Kirk Cousins, he is a franchise quarterback and regardless if one likes Cousins or not, for the near future this is a franchise-changing decision. Think back to San Diego, who refused to pay Drew Brees following a 2005 season in which he played on the franchise tag. He then revitalized New Orleans Saints football and was a key cog in the 2010 super bowl team. The Chargers were willing to move on with the next chapter of their organization with a backup plan already in place, but the same can go for Washington however with no such plan like the Chargers had in place, just be prepared for better or for worse. If Washington and Kirk are unable to “make it official” this offseason, they should not waste either side’s time when the same exact process will repeat itself the very next year. Scot McCloughan was brought into Washington for his keen talent evaluating abilities, and his task this offseason is critical. If no long term deal is reached, then the time to move on from Kirk is this year. There are 2 other teams potentially willing to play ball and Scot McCloughan must capitalize this offseason with the Browns and 49ers 1st round picks likely in play.