The Redskins’ Free Agency Plan
February 19, 2020
by Steve Thomas
This past Friday, the Redskins released corner Josh Norman, wide receiver Paul Richardson Jr., safety Kenny Ladler, and outside linebacker Chris Odom. Earlier this week, the team then announced that they were bringing Adrian Peterson back by exercising his team option. These moves were the opening salvos in what is likely to be a long line of roster moves that new head coach Ron Rivera is probably going to make as he approaches his first free agency period as the new Washington kingpin. Cutting Norman and Richardson are big moves for the franchise and will have lasting consequences, for the better, moving forward.
In today’s exercise, I’m going to review the effect of these personnel moves on the salary cap and the involved position groups, then outline a free agency plan going forward that fills a good number of team needs, thereby allowing the team to go into the draft with more of a “best available” approach, while simultaneously maintaining some cap space. Sound good? Great. Let’s get into it.
Salary cap impact
Cutting Norman saved the Redskins a net of $12.5M in 2020. Norman was heading into the final year of his contract, so the impact was great for this season, but not going forward as the team was not going to re-sign him to an extension. Cutting Richardson saved $2.5M this season, but was signed through 2022, so his release actually alleviates a fairly significant burden on the roster and allows the team to move forward with their group of young receivers and to possibly bring in a new veteran who is better suited to the Redskins offense. Odom and Ladler had minimal impact on the salary cap. The NFL has not yet fixed the exact 2020 salary cap number, but it is projected to be between $196.8M and $201.2M. If we conservatively use $197M as the magic number, these roster moves leave the Redskins with a little over $57M in free cap space, including Peterson.
Norman’s departure leaves the Washington cornerback group with disgruntled starter Quinton Dunbar, probable #2 starter Fabian Moreau, with Greg Stroman, Jimmy Moreland, and Danny Johnson battling for the slot corner position. The remaining backups are Maurice Smith, Kayvon Webster, 2019 practice squadder Dee Delaney, and Thomas Simeon, who is suspended for the first game of the 2020 season due to use of performance enhancing drugs. The group currently occupies approximately $10.2M of cap space under the Rule of 51, which relatively speaking is a very small number.
The wide receiver group is led by 2019 rookie star Terry McLaurin as the team’s #1 receiver at the “X” position, fellow rookie Kelvin Harmon at the “Z”, and out-of-nowhere rookie sensation Steven Sims Jr. in the slot. 2018 undrafted free agent Cam Sims and Trey Quinn, 2018’s Mr. Irrelevant out of SMU, are the remaining vets. The team also has Darvin Kidsey, Jester Weah, Jordan Veasy, and Emanuel Hall fighting for playing time. With Richardson’s departure, the Redskins are left with just $3.4M obligated towards the salary cap in 2020 under the Rule of 51, which is a remarkably tiny number.
Now that Washington has opted in on Peterson’s contract for 2020, he’s going to cost approximately $3.1M under the salary cap. He can still be cut, though (as unlikely as that may be) at savings of $2.36M. Peterson is Mr. Consistency in a position group otherwise marred by young and injury-prone players. Whether Derrius Guice and/or Bryce Love, or for that matter a to be determined 2020 rookie, can take playing time from Peterson remains to be seen, but for now, he’s the respected future hall of fame veteran in the locker room and the clear-cut 1st stringer heading into next season.
Possible additional cuts
The biggest move that’s likely to happen is the probable release or retirement of Jordan Reed. Just this week, word leaked via ESPN’s John Keim that Reed apparently wants continue to play, so at this point a release seems more likely. Reed’s Virginia home has been on sale since late 2019, which could be a sign that he expects to not be here next year. As of now, he is signed through the 2021 season. For salary cap purposes, retirements are treated essentially the same as a release. Reed has a $10.3M cap figure in 2020 and $9M in 2021. Most of his dead cap money has already burned off, so the Redskins would be left with just $1.8M in 2020, meaning that they would save a net of $8.5M this year and the full $9M in 2021 if he departs one way or the other.
Another major question mark from a salary cap perspective is longtime starting right tackle Morgan Moses. He is signed through 2022 and cap hits of $8.65M in 2020, $9.65M in 2021, and $7.75M in 2022. Moses’ play has been substandard compared to his cost for the past two seasons. If he were cut this offseason, he would represent a net savings of $4.85M this year, and they $9.65M in 2021 and $7.75M in 2022. I don’t think this is going to happen, at least not right now, simply because an obvious replacement isn’t on the roster.
In case you weren’t aware, there is no easy and realistic way to get Alex Smith off of the salary cap in 2020. If he retires without being told by his doctors he can’t play football again, the Redskins could force him to return money. There is an insurance policy that would lessen the net cap hit somewhat if he leaves, but it would still be a major chunk of cap space. Hypothetically, the Redskins and Smith could reach a buyout, but the odds of that seems slim. He could be traded at a savings, but what team would trade for Smith given the seriousness of his injury? Stranger things have happened, but let’s assume lightning doesn’t strike and Smith is on the roster in 2020.
The elephant in the room is defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. The vast majority of both professional draft analysts and fans predict that the Redskins will draft Ohio St. edge rusher extraordinaire Chase Young as the team’s defensive end of the future. Kerrigan is entering the final year of his contract. He’s a $11.75M cap hit and has no dead money left, and would thus represent a savings of the full $11.75M if he were released. It seems unlikely that the Redskins would actually cut him, simply because he’s still a productive player who’s popular with the fans and a good public face of the team. Plus, the team (at least under the prior regime) doesn’t have a history of releasing productive vets, and owner Dan Snyder is supposedly a big Kerrigan fan. So while it’s still possible that Washington could cut Kerrigan, it’s just as likely, if not more, that they renegotiate his 2020 salary and tack on a couple of extra years to reduce his 2020 cap hit and allow him to retire as a Redskin, regardless of whether they draft Young. That’s easily accomplished by converting a portion of his 2020 base salary to a signing bonus, then giving him 2 more non-guaranteed years. Stay tuned.
Free agency plan
Let’s first assume that Jordan Reed retires, but the team doesn’t cut either Morgan Moses (no replacement on the roster) or Ryan Kerrigan (for the reasons stated above).
The Redskins need to obligate a net of about $9.4M in salary cap space to the incoming draft class under the Rule of 51. That number will go up if the team trades for more picks.
I’m going to assume for these purposes that Riverboat Ron will be able to talk Trent Williams into returning to the team, given that Snyder did everything that Williams wanted – he fired Bruce Allen, the entire training staff, a big chunk of the front office, and the entire coaching staff. I’m not sure what more Trent could want, unless he just doesn’t want to play football anymore. Unless it’s the latter, in my opinion, Williams refusing to return at this point would really reflect negatively on his character. It’s time for him to come home, and I think he will. Trent’s return fills a major need for the next couple of years.
Brandon Scherff is the biggest and most obvious required signing. I wrote about a possible contract for Scherff last June (click here to read) and came up with 6 years / $88M, with a 2020 cap hit of $13.67M in 2020. For the sake of the argument, let’s aim high and say $14M for him in 2020.
Signing Ereck Flowers is another very important requirement, and the team needs to make every effort to bring him back. My best guess is that Flowers is probably worth something around 3 years / $20M, for a cap hit somewhere in the $7 – $8M range.
Next, a middle linebacker is mandatory and is probably the biggest need on the team outside of the mess along the offensive line. Our middle linebacker free agency preview is here. Let’s assume the Redskins sign somebody like former Brown Joe Schobert at a market value deal of 5 years / $50M, with a cap hit in the range of $10M.
With Richardson’s departure, the Redskins could use the venerable “veteran presence” both as a mentor to the young, developing core, and as an experienced playmaker. Jamual Forrest’s wide receiver free agency preview is available here. If the Redskins get lucky, they could add a big-name free agent such as A.J. Green at $9M per year or Robby Anderson at $12M per year. Let’s assume one of those signings happens.
Here’s how the math works out:
Current available space including Peterson: $57.0M
Jordan Reed release: $ 7.9M
TOTAL AVAILABLE SPACE: $64.9M
Rookie pool: ($ 9.4M)
Brandon Scherff: ($14.0M)
Ereck Flowers: ($ 8.0M)
Joe Schobert: ($10.0M)
A.J. Green: ($ 9.0M)
TOTAL COST OF SIGNINGS: ($50.4M)
TOTAL REMAINING SPACE: $14.5M
So there is it, kids – how to make major free agency changes to fill the team’s roster holes with expensive, high profile players and still have cap space left over for a few other smaller signings such as tight end, outside linebacker, defensive back, and/or a re-worked Trent Williams deal. I’ll cover a possible Williams extension in a separate column. If the Redskins can do this, or a reasonable facsimile thereof, I might just come around on drafting Chase Young rather than either trading the pick or drafting someone else. The big caveat is Reed – if he doesn’t retire or is released, that limits the cap space, but as you can see, the plan is still doable. Either way, this would dramatically improve the team in the short term and set them up for success going forward.
There you have it – somebody please tell Dan Snyder that I should be his next GM.