Meeting the Enemy – Cowboys Edition
July 17, 2018
by Steve Thomas
This is week two of our ongoing NFC East preview series leading into training camp at the end of the month. Whereas last week we visited the City of Hate, Philadelphia, to check out the Eagles, this week we travel cross-country from Satan’s Playhouse to the land of steers and fake fans, Dallas, Texas, to examine the Redskins’ most hated nemesis, the Cowboys. I’d love to just be able to say that the Cowboys are going to stink and leave it at that, but I’ll try to be a bit more objective.
2017 recap
The major story for the Cowboys during the 2017 season was the ongoing will-he-or-won’t-he be suspended drama of second year running back Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t want to waste a ton of space here analyzing everything that happened and all the questionable decisions Elliott has made; suffice to say that NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, suspended Elliott for 6 games for violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy for an alleged domestic violence incident against his girlfriend. Elliott and the NFLPA went to the mat over the incident, appealing to the NFL arbitrator, who sided with the NFL, then filed suit against the NFL in federal court. After a fight that found its way to federal trial courts in two different states and both the Second and Fifth Circuit Courts of Appeal, Elliott and the NFLPA finally lost the fight for good and Elliott served his original 6 game suspension for the 9th through 14th games of the season.
Dallas stayed fairly healthy in 2017, all things considered, although all world left tackle Tryon Smith was hurt late in the season and missed 3 games. They finished the year with 13 players on injured reserve, but outside of Smith, most of their important pieces were able to stay upright for the majority of the season.
The Cowboys began the season on a mediocre note, going 2 – 2 in the first quarter of the season, winning their opening week matchup against the rival New York Giants and their week 3 battle against the Cardinals, but dropping games against the Broncos and Los Angeles Rams in weeks 2 and 4, respectively. The Bronco game, in particular, was a blowout, with Dallas surrendering 42 points and 178 yards rushing, including 118 yards to C.J. Anderson. The second quarter of the season began in heartbreaking fashion, when Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers scored the winning touchdown with just 11 seconds left in the games. Things noticeably improved at that point, with Dallas winning their next three games following their week 6 bye against the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs, respectively.
The third quarter of the season saw Dallas’ battle for the NFC East title end, as they proceeded to go 1 – 3, with blowouts at the hands of the Falcons, Eagles, and Chargers in consecutive fashion. They finally found their get-well game against the Redskins in their week 13 matchup in a 38 – 14 blowout that was one of the low points of the Redskins season. Dallas went an irrelevant 3 – 1 in the final quarter of the season with victories over the Giants, Raiders, and Eagles in weeks 14, 15, and 17, and a home loss to Seattle in week 16.
Dallas finished the season at 9 – 7 and missed the playoffs.
The numbers
The Cowboys were ranked 14th in total points scored, 14th in total yardage, 14th in yards per play, 26th in total passing yardage, 2nd in rushing yardage, 3rd in rushing yards per attempt, 10th in sacks surrendered, and 9th in penalties.
On defense, Dallas finished the season ranked 14th in total points surrendered, 8th in total yards, 10th in yards per play, 11th in passing yards surrendered, 8th in passing yards per attempt, 28th in completion percentage, 8th in total rushing yards surrendered, 16th in rushing yards per play, and 15th in sacks. One area in which the Cowboys were particularly bad was interceptions, finishing the season ranked 24th in total interceptions and 25th in interception percentage.
Quarterback Dak Prescott took a significant step back across the board in his sophomore campaign, with an 86.6 quarterback rating in 2017 compared to 104.9 in his rookie year. His completion percentage fell from 67.8% in 2016 to 62.9% and his total passing yardage fell from 3,667 in his rookie campaign to 3,324 in 2017. His interception percentage rose to 2.7% in 2017, which was ranked 25th amongst all passers, as compared to 0.9% in 2016, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL that year.
Despite his problems, Elliott still finished the year as Dallas’ leading rusher, with 242 carries for 983 yards for an average of 4.1 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns over 10 games. Elliott also added 26 receptions in 38 targets for 269 yards and 2 additional touchdowns. However, even putting his suspension aside, 2017 was not as successful for him as was 2016 – games 2 through 4 was the least productive three game stretch of his young career. During that period, he gained only 173 yards on 52 carries for an average of just 3.3 yards per carry, including just 8 yards on 9 carries against the Broncos in week 2. The remainder of the season was more typical of his 2016 effort, with 706 yards on 166 carries for 4.3 yards per carry. Elliott’s backup, the beloved Alfred Morris, gained 547 yards on 115 carries for an average of 4.8 yards per carry, plus 1 touchdown.
Dez Bryant had a down year but was still Dallas’ leading receiver, with 69 receptions on 132 targets for 838 yards, 12.1 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns. 12.1 yards per reception was the lowest of Bryant’s career. Tight end Jason Witten was next with 63 receptions in 87 targets for 560 yards, 8.9 yards per receptions, and 5 touchdowns.
Linebacker Sean Lee led the way on defense with 70 tackles and 31 assisted tackles. Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence led the team with 14.5 sacks, which was second-most in the NFL. Safety Jeff Heath was team leader in interceptions with just 3 in 15 games.
2018 offseason
The most prominent moves for the Cowboys this offseason were the retirement of Witten, who will walk into the Hall of Fame 5 years from now, and the departure of Bryant, who was released on April 13, which netted Dallas a savings of $8.5M on the salary cap. Dallas also signed All-Pro guard Zach Martin to a 6 year, $84M contract extension that included a $20M signing bonus and $40M in total guarantees. This move will have a significant impact on the Redskins in their efforts to re-sign guard Brandon Scherff. The Cowboys also placed the franchise tag on Lawrence, who signed the offer and will play the season on a fully guaranteed $17.143M salary.
Dallas made an effort to improve their offensive line this offseason, signing center Joe Looney, who spent last season with the Titans, to a 2 year deal, tackle Cameron Fleming, formerly with the Patriots, guard Marcus Martin, formerly with the Cleveland Browns, and Dustin Stanton, who was cut by Cincinnati last September, to one year contracts. They also re-signed center Joe Looney for two years.
Elsewhere on offense, the big news was a trade with the Los Angeles Rams for WR Tavon Austin in exchange for a 2018 6th round draft pick. In addition, they signed receiver Allen Hurns from Jacksonville to a two year contract and receiver Deonte Thompson away from the Buffalo Bills on a one year deal. Dallas also traded for fullback Jamize Olawale from Oakland in exchange for a draft pick. They also signed running back Darrius Jackson (formerly with Cleveland) and receiver MeKale McKay to one year deals.
Defensive tackle Brian Price signed a two year extension. Defensive tackle David Irving re-signed for one year, only to shortly thereafter be suspended for the first 4 games of 2018 for violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Defensive end Jihad Ward was acquired from the Raiders in a trade for receiver Ryan Switzer. The team signed linebacker Joe Thomas, who was with the Packers for past 3 seasons, to a 2 year contract, re-signed safety L.P. Ladouceur for one year, exercised their team option on their 2015 1st round draft pick, cornerback Byron Jones, and signed defensive tackle Antwaun Woods and defensive end Kony Ealy to one year deals.
Dallas also signed a kicker, Brett Maher, and a long snapper, Scott Daly, to one year contracts.
The Cowboys lost running back Daren McFadden to retirement at the end of November, 2017. They released defensive end Benson Mayowe and corner Orlando Scandrick (who signed with the Redskins; read my analysis here), and waived defensive tackle Joe Vellano. Guard Jonathan Cooper signed with the 49ers. Corner Bene Benwikere, receiver Brice Butler, and defensive end Benson Mayowa all signed with Arizona. Backup quarterback Luke McCown retired. Backup tackle Byron Bell signed with Green Bay.
The Cowboys drafted the following players in this year’s draft:
Rd 1: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise St.
Rd 2: Connor Williams. OL, Texas
Rd 3: Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado St.
Rd 4: Dorance Armstrong Jr., Edge, Kansas
Rd 4: Dalton Schultz, TE, Stanford
Rd 5: Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky
Rd 6: Chris Covington, LB, Indiana
Rd 6: Cedrick Wilson, WR, Boise St.
Rd 7: Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama
As was the case for my Eagles preview, I’m not going to do an in-depth draft analysis here. The first round pick, Leighton Vander Esch, was highly productive in college and should serve to make the Cowboy defense better immediately.
2018 projection
The most critical question for the 2018 Dallas Cowboys is whether quarterback Dak Prescott can regain his 2016 form and improve, or whether his 2017 regression is going to continue. This is Prescott’s third season, so he will be eligible for an extension at the end of this season. If Prescott gets back on track, it’s likely that Dallas will offer him a contract extension, but if he does not improve, then he will proceed into the 2019 season as the last year of his rookie deal. Just as important is whether running back Ezekiel Elliott can put 2017 behind him and resume his status as one of the best running backs in the league. Finally, Dallas needs its revamped receiver corps, now led by Terrance Williams, the somewhat disappointing Austin, and Cole Beasley, to perform in light of the departure of Bryant.
Also, the tight end position group is all of a sudden a massive question mark filled with a bunch of minimum salary players after Witten’s retirement. The 4th round draft pick out of Stanford, Schultz, may actually end up playing a significant role.
Assuming health, which is a big assumption given Sean Lee’s injury history, the Cowboy defense should be as good or better than the 2017 version after the addition of Vander Esch and the subtraction of Scandrick (I know; sorry).
The Cowboys generally have a fairly favorable schedule for this coming season. Dallas begins the season at the Carolina Panthers, which is a tough game, but that is followed by the Giants at home, the Seahawks in Seattle, and the Lions in Dallas. The Giants and Lions at home seem to be winnable games, with the Seattle game a tall order, as are the Panthers if Cam Newton and company can regain their mojo. Therefore, 2 – 2 seems most likely in the first quarter of the season, with 3 – 1 possible. In the second quarter, Dallas faces the Texans in Houston, the Jaguars in Dallas, the Redskins at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, followed by the Titans at home on Monday Night Football in week 9 after their week 8 bye. Houston is a bit of a mystery to predict, but the Jaguars are a Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately, the Redskins are 2 – 8 in the last ten games against Dallas, so the Cowboys will likely be favored in that game. The Titans, of course, had a tough 2017. Therefore, 3 – 1 is probably likely in this quarter, with 2 – 2 being the likely low mark.
The third quarter appears to be the Cowboys’ toughest stretch of games and could make or break the season for this team. If my estimate is right, Dallas will 5 – 3 headed into the season’s second half. Dallas travels to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champion Eagles, then travels to Atlanta in a week 11 matchup with the Falcons, then has successive home Thursday matchups, with the Redskins on Thanksgiving Day and the Saints in week 13. Expecting any team to win two games in a row on the road against a Super Bowl champion and a Super Bowl contender is a tall order, and the Saints are always a tough game, even moreso with their new-found running game. 1 – 3 seems to be the most likely outcome for this quarter, with 2 – 2 being the high side. The fourth quarter is something of a gift by the scheduling gods. The Cowboys face off with the Eagles at home in week 14, but after that, they have the awful Colts in Indianapolis, the underperforming Buccaneers, and the Giants in New York to finish the season. Depending on how things go in the season, Dallas could conceivably go 4 – 0 in the fourth quarter, although 3 – 1 is probably more likely.
Therefore, it appears as though the Cowboys are headed for a season record of 9 – 7, with 11 – 5 possible. I can’t tell you how it pains me to write that, but that’s how I see things.
What do you think about Dallas’ 2018 season? Let me know in the comment section.