Washington 2025 season thoughts and predictions
September 1, 2025
by Steve Thomas
Well, folks, we’ve made it through the long offseason and a relatively low key preseason, at least by Washington standards. Today, I thought I’d give me general thoughts about the status of the team and do a season prediction. Let’s begin with my general thoughts.
The Terry McLaurin saga
Thank god it’s over. At the end of the day, Washington got a pretty team-friendly deal, all things considered. The total contract value was 3 years, $97M, with a $30M signing bonus, $44.65M guaranteed at signing, and $50M becoming guaranteed. The good part about this deal, though, is that the team can cut him in 2027 if it wanted to do so, because the dead cap situation for this contract is such that Washington is only locked in through 2026. Furthermore, this contract has very high base salaries in 2027 and 2028, plus a bunch of incentives that escalate the total value. What all of these means is that McLaurin can declare victory because he got a contract worth more than $32M in average annual value, and the team can do the same since they aren’t stuck with him for more than two years. McLaurin’s fake holdout was silly, but in the end, it worked out for everyone. Especially the team.
Preseason results
I’ll start off by saying that I don’t care that much about the results of preseason games. The fact that the team went 0 – 3 in three blowouts doesn’t mean much of anything in terms of regular season results. The most of the starters basically didn’t play at all during the preseason and the coaching staff doesn’t gameplan for these contests. Therefore, an 0 – 3 result is not indicative of what’s going to happen in the regular season. What I do think it means, though, is that Washington’s depth may be in question. The mid and lower tier players made a ton of mistakes, committed a pretty significant number of penalties, and didn’t look particularly good in any phase of the game. I do believe in the starting roster, mostly, but the non-starters are a cause for concern in a general sense, which may or may not become relevant, depending on the team’s injury status as the seasons progresses. Both backup quarterbacks, Sam Hartman and Josh Johnson, were mostly terrible, with Hartman being the worst of the two. The blowout losses were in no small part thanks to interceptions. Washington’s backup defense looked sloppy and totally unprepared for most of the three games. To me, that’s the only real news that we learned during the NFL’s new three game preseason.
I strongly disagree with Dan Quinn’s decision to play the starters so little in the preseason. Most of the starting offense only got on the field for one series, and the defense was about the same. In my view, the starters should have been allowed to play significantly more, at least one full game, particularly given the fact that they only had one joint practice day with the Bengals since the Ravens’ day was cancelled. Quinn was no doubt concerned about injuries and obviously needed to see the back of the roster players who are competing for a roster spot. In doing so, though, he may have inadvertently left the starters unprepared for the regular season. Don’t be surprised in week 1 against the Giants looks like a bit of a dress rehearsal, win or lose.
We will see improvements in the non-Jayden Daniels run game?
I did a statistical deep dive into the 2024 results of Washington’s running back group back in early June (click here to read). I’m not going to repeat it all in detail here, but in total, the 2024 group – minus Jayden Daniels – had 1600 yards in 354 carries, which equates to 4.5 yards per carry. That isn’t terrible, but what the evidence showed was that those results were a bit skewed by a handful of great games, whereas, many if not most games featured a significantly less effective non-Daniels rushing attack. Now that Brian Robinson Jr. is gone, that leaves Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Austin Ekeler, and Chris Rodriguez as the primary rushing attack by committee. Honestly, that doesn’t inspire too much confidence. Croskey-Merritt is unproven and, with the exception of one run, hasn’t been particularly impressive. Rodriguez has had a moment or two, and Ekeler is a proven vet, but fans are deluding themselves if they think that’s an above average group. I think the success in the Bengals game was more of an aberration than anything.
Nevertheless, I’m fairly confident that the running game will be better than 2024 because of the offensive line. We didn’t see Laremy Tunsil in the preseason, but I refuse to believe that one of the best left tackles in the game won’t result in a few more open rushing lanes even considering the harder schedule this season. Therefore, look for a slight, but not tremendous, improvement in the overall results from the running back group.
It’s unclear whether teams will have a better handle on Daniels in year two
My big fear for Daniels this coming season isn’t that he’s going to be personally unprepared. He seems to be a very serious person in terms of his approach to the game, and he didn’t spend all offseason doing commercials and podcasts, as previous high draft picks have done (see, e.g., Young, Chase). No, my fear is that some of these talented NFL defensive coordinators Washington is going to face this season will use the year of film they now have on Daniels to develop ways to stop him. If you look at his game by game results last season, the truth is that while he was good all year, he was less effective against some of the better teams they faced. We clearly didn’t get a sense of anything in the preseason since Daniels only played one series. Keep an eye out on whether teams defense Daniels differently than they did last year and whether it results in better or worse statistics than he produced as a rookie.
Run defense should improve, but it will come at the expense of sacks
It isn’t a secret that Washington was one of the worst teams in the league in run defense last year; they were tied for 30th in the league in opponent’s yards per carry, at 4.8. Washington took steps in the offseason to improve: most prominently, they brought in Javon Kinlaw, who is known as a run stopper. That all by itself should result in at least a slight improvement. My fear, though, is that while Kinlaw is here, the team didn’t do much to replace Dante Fowler’s 10.5 sacks. Before you ask, no, I don’t consider signing the 36 year old and declining Von Miller to be an adequate solution. Washington had 43 sacks last season, which was ranked tied for 12th. I don’t expect Washington to exceed that number this season, particularly in light of the fact that they have a much more difficult schedule. What that means in terms of defensive effectiveness remains to be seen.
The special teams and kicking game are concerning
Can we all admit that Washington’s front office is horrible at selecting kickers? They’ve had what seems like 10,456 kickers since Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, and company arrived in town, and none of them have worked out. Matt Gay wasn’t terrible in the preseason, but didn’t inspire confidence, either. Equally disheartening was the downright horrible performance of the special teams, all throughout the preseason, but particularly the defense in the Bengals game. What’s more frightening is that we can’t completely write that off to the back of the roster players being responsible either, since at least a good bit of them remain on the regular season active roster today. If this group doesn’t get better fast, it’s going to cause some big problems.
Season prediction
Here is my official prediction for Washington’s season, which tracks what I said on last week’s episode of The Hog Sty.
Quarter #1: (3 – 1)
▪ Week 1, Giants (home): The Giants are improved at quarterback, with Russell Wilson, and are going to be very tough on the defensive front, but I think Washington takes this one. Win.
▪ Week 2, Packers (away, Thursday): The Packers are a quality team with talent and get to play at home on Thursday night after getting Detroit at home in week one. This one doesn’t bode well for Washington. Loss.
▪ Week 3, Raiders (home); The Raiders stink and have to travel across the country for this one. Enough said. Win.
▪ Week 4, Falcons (away): Michael Penix Jr. should be better this year and the Falcons have alot of talent on offense, but I think Washington wins in a squeaker. Win.
Quarter #2: (1 – 3) (4 – 4 overall)
▪ Week 5, Chargers (away): This is a long way to travel and the Chargers have one of the best quarterbacks in the league and a quality rookie running back. Washington loses another tough game. Loss.
▪ Week 6, Bears (home, Monday): At the end of the day, Jayden Daniels is a better quarterback than Caleb Williams. In prior years, I’d be greatly worried about any Monday night game, but in this case, I think Washington steps up big. Washington gets an easy win. Win.
▪ Week 7, Dallas (away): Yes, Dallas has issues, but I don’t think Washington can beat them in Dallas two years in a row. Loss.
▪ Week 8, Kansas City (away, Monday): Yikes. Big loss.
Quarter #3: (3 – 1) (7 – 5 overall)
▪ Week 9, Seahawks (home, Sunday night): I don’t think Washington is going to lose three games in a row this year. Seattle is yet another good team, but Washington figures out a way to take this game. Win.
▪ Week 10, Lions (home): The Lions are scary good, irrespective of their big playoff loss to Washington in the Divisional Round, and will get Aidan Hutchinson back. This one is a bit too much for Washington to handle, even at home. Loss.
▪ Week 11, Dolphins (away, in Madrid, Spain): The Dolphins are good, but not great, and Washington won’t want to lose a second high-profile game in a row. Win.
▪ Week 12, bye.
▪ Week 13, Broncos (home, Sunday night): Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, although their offense probably leaves something to be desires. Washington wins this one in a squeaker. Win.
Quarter #4: (2 – 3) (9 – 8)
▪ Week 14, Vikings (away): The Vikings were obviously one of the best teams in the NFL last season, at least during the regular season. Things have changed at quarterback for them, though, and I’m not sold on J.J. McCarthy. Still, though, Justin Jefferson is a scary receiver. I think Washington loses a tough one here. Loss.
▪ Week 15, Giants (home): Washington really needs a win here, and this is a home game against a lesser team. Win.
▪ Week 16, Eagles (home): Look, folks, the Eagles are a much better team than Washington, overall. Its okay to admit that, right? Washington loses this one.
▪ Week 17, Cowboys (home, Thursday Christmas Day): Thanks so much, NFL, for scheduling this one on Christmas. At The Hog Sty, we hate Christmas games. Washington gets this one splits the season with Dallas. Win.
▪ Week 18, Eagles (away): No. Sorry, fans. Loss.
These results will be good enough for another Wild Card playoff appearance.