Washington Season Projection: Final Three Teams and Complete Recap

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August 22, 2025

by David Earl

Washington’s Final Three Match-ups

In my conclusion later I will recap some of the key points for Washington entering the 2025 season. My final record prediction is not nearly as optimistic as others but that is partly because some of the offseason moves and decisions are just present too many big question marks in my point of view.  This includes such as the recent developments with Terry McLaurin‘s contract negotiations and the team moving on from Brian Robinson Jr as they appear to be sold on what Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt brings to the offense. So, before I dive into this points, let’s break down some team statistical categories and dive into the final 3 matchups on their schedule.

Offensively
  • Ranked 6th in points per game at 28.8
  • Ranked 10th in yards per play at 5.7
  • Ranked 6th at yards per rush at 4.8 yards
  • Ranked 6th in completion percentage, at 68.91%
  • Ranked 7th in quarterback rating, at 101.8
Defensively
  • Ranked 22nd in points per game at 24.9
  • Ranked 26th in yards per play at 5.7
  • Ranked 31st in yards per rush at 5.0
  • Ranked 6th in completion percentage at 62.74%
  • Ranked 18th in quarterback rating at 93.4
  • Ranked 8th in sack rate at 7.58%

Of the three remaining teams to review, the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and the Seattle Seahawks, the Dolphins are going to present the best defense Washington will face from this group. Their secondary ranked 9th, giving up a 63.81% completion percentage, allowing a total 88.7 QBR. Although their secondary will present a problem, their defensive front was ranked 27th with a 5.77% sack percentage. This will play into Washington’s hands as Jayden Daniels will not try to force any throws and will have options in checking down the pass or scrambling to gain yards with his feet. Behind an improved offensive line, Washington’s offense should be able to move the offense with relative ease. It will be the Dolphins’ offense that will present the most challenging aspect in this matchup. Tua Tagovailoa‘s supporting cast of wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and running back De’Von Achane gives the Dolphins one of the more explosive offenses in the league. If last year proved anything about their offense, which was ranked 22nd, averaging 20.3 points per game, is that they are very inconsistent. So, Washington should match up well against their defense and that will be enough for a comfortable win.

The Atlanta Falcons will field one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL in Bijan Robinson and an elite wide receiver in Drake London. Last year, we saw Michael Penix Jr finish the season completing 58.1% of his passes and earning a total 78.9 QBR. So the Falcons’ offense, to be a serious threat, will hinge on Penix Jr. taking the next step in his development and tight end Kyle Pitts finally taking that step forward. Defensively, they have two talented rookie defenders in defensive lineman Jalon Walker and edge rusher James Pearce. They still have holes in the middle of that defense and the secondary was middle of the pack in the NFL, allowing 65.20% passes completed. The Falcons are still rebuilding and Washington will escape with a win, pulling away late in the game.

The Seattle Seahawks are the most intriguing matchup of this group. Newly signed quarterback Sam Darnold had a near-MVP season last season but was that year a step forward for him or will he revert back to the player from his days with the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets? Then the loss of wide receiver D.K. Metcalf will certainly have an effect on production. Running back Kenneth Walker has not been able to put together any form of consistency. Their defense was also middle of the pack last season, like the Falcons, but they should be a productive unit under second-year Head Coach Mike Macdonald. Macdonald’s defenses in Baltimore have finished among the top 10 in most categories and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori should go help tremendously in bringing this defense back to prominence. Washington will certainly have it’s challenges against the Seahawks defense but the will hold home field with a win, especially coming after a Monday loss against to the Kansas City Chiefs. This game won’t be a high scoring game and a possible overtime scenario as the edge goes to Washington and the win.

Miami Dolphins: Road

Seattle Seahawks: Home

Atlanta Falcons: Road

Conclusion: Predicting 9-8 Season

A 9 win season won’t be a popular pick here but they have a very tough schedule and the flow of these games do not favor Washington. Having to travel from Atlanta in week 4 to Los Angeles the following week then back home on a Thursday night versus Chicago is far from ideal. Playing week 7 on the road against hated rival Dallas followed by a Monday Night trip to Kansas City week 8 finish a five-game stretch that could be the most difficult stretch of the season. The final six weeks of the season Washington will face one of the league’s youngest and best defenses in the Denver Broncos, plus the final 4 games against division opponents.  This schedule offers plenty of challenges, but if Washington effectively answers some of my concerns, they could manage 11 wins as is their absolute ceiling.

As a recap to the keys points on Washington heading into the 2025 season, I can foresee a more pass-heavy offense with a 64.2% pass rate versus a 35.8% rushing rate. If Daniels can avoid any major setbacks, he could very easily surpass 4,000 passing yards and approach the 40 passing touchdown mark, while eclipsing a 70% completion rate. Washington’s second preseason game appeared to have shown some improvements in the offensive line from last season that caused Daniels to face 153 total blitzes last season. Even without Laremy Tunsil, this unit created good running lanes, with tight end John Bates proving to be an excellent run blocking tight end. We have not seen this unit yet tested in pass blocking where last season Jayden Daniels was under pressure 18.5% of the time, hurried 36 times, and hit 28 times.  Between an apparently improved unit and the addition of Deebo Samuel, Daniels’ rushing totals could get him nearly breaking 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns to accompanied improved time in the pocket.

With what appears to be a shakeup prior to the start of the season, running back Brian Robinson Jr. may no longer have a place on Washington. This will give Chris Rodriquez an opportunity to become a featured player on offense as he has shown plenty of burst and quickness. Adam Peters appears to be putting all his eggs in one basket though with a 7th round pick in Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt. There is general excitement around him and for good reason when looking at his camp performance, but game time experience is the ultimate barometer. While he scored on a 27 yard touchdown and averaged 10.3 yards per carry, he averaged 3.5 yards per carry on his remaining 10 carries. His previous game only posted 3.4 yards per carry of 7 rushing attempts. While Robinson was certainly not a premier runner in this league, moving on from him at this point could be an unnecessary risk too without any proven players to fill his role. The questions I had before when you removed Jayden Daniels out of the running game equation not only still remain but is a bit more concerning entering week 1.

As for their defense last season, the run defense was Washington’s Achilles heel and watching the ease with which opposing running backs sliced through Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen was very frustrating.  We had to watch Washington’s 28th-ranked run defense. Washington will see soon enough if the additions of Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman will be enough of an upgrade in the run game. The additions on defense against the run possibly caused a slight weakening in the pass rush but also understandable after being gashed all last season against the run.