Let’s compare Dan Quinn to his peers
May 13, 2025
by Steve Thomas
We all think Dan Quinn is pretty decent, right? He didn’t do half bad in his first year as Washington’s head coach – it could’ve been worse, I think.
Obviously, I’m kidding. Quinn did an amazing job in year one in D.C. In fact, I’d say that it’s inarguable that he was one of the critical pieces – perhaps the most critical – to the biggest turnaround of Washington’s football fortunes since Joe Gibbs. What I’m curious about at this moment is where Quinn fits in the hierarchy of current NFL coaches. To put some sort of objective standards to this, I looked at the win – loss records of every head coach in the league for their first and second years with their current team. I disregarded coaches for whom 2024 was the first year as a head coach for his current team, and I disregarded coaches who were hired for the 2025 season. Including Quinn, that left 22 head coaches.
Quinn’s performance in 2024
We’ll get into the data and results for these coaches, but in review, Quinn went 12 – 5 in 2024, which was a .706 winning percentage, and coached Washington to three playoff games, winning two, but losing in the NFC Championship Game to the hated Eagles. His offense earned the following league rankings:
Points scored: 5th
Total yards: 7th
Rushing attempts: 5th
Rushing yards: 3rd
Rushing yards per attempt: 4th
Rushing touchdowns: 3th
Passing attempts: 25th
Passing yards: 17th
Passing touchdowns: 9th
His defense earned the following rankings:
Points allowed: 18th
Total yards allowed: 13th
Rushing attempts against: 25th
Rushing yards allowed: 30th
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 28th
Rushing touchdowns allowed: 18th
Pass attempts against: 2nd
Passing yards allowed: 3rd
Passing yards per attempt allowed: 10th
Passing touchdowns allowed: 15th
Interceptions: 26th
As a general trend, under Quinn, the rankings show that Washington was a high-volume, quality rushing team, thanks mainly to Jayden Daniels, and a middle of the pack, but still effective passing offense. The defense was much less effective, generally, and was particularly terrible in run defense as a whole and in interceptions.
Coaching rankings
Of the 21 active NFL head coaches besides Quinn who have been with their teams for at least two seasons, 12 had winning records, as shown below in rank order:
#1) Matt LaFleur, Packers, 2019 / 2020: 26 – 6, .813 winning %, 2 – 2 in playoffs
#2) Sean McVay, Rams, 2017 / 2018: 24 – 8, .750 winning %, 2 – 2 in playoffs, NFC champion
#3) Mike Tomlin, Steelers, 2007 / 2008: 22 – 10, .688 winning %, 3 – 1 in playoffs, SB champs
#4) Nick Sirianni, Eagles, 2021 / 2022: 23 – 11: .676 winning %, 2 – 2 in playoffs, NFC champion
#6) John Harbaugh, Ravens, 2008 / 2009: 20 – 12, .625 winning %, 3 – 2 in playoffs, lost AFC Champion game in 2008
#6) Andy Reid, Chiefs, 2013 / 2014: 20 – 12, .625 winning %, 0 – 1 in playoffs
#9) DeMeco Ryans, Texans, 2023 / 2024: 20 – 14, .588 winning %, 2 – 2 in playffs
#9) Mike McDaniel, Dolphins, 2022 / 2023: 20 – 14, .588 winning %, 0 – 2 in playoffs
#9) Kevin O’Connell, Vikings, 2022 / 2023: 20 – 14, .588 winning %, 0 – 1 in playoffs
#10) Kevin Stefanski, Browns, 2020 / 2021: 19 – 14, .575 winning %
#11) Sean Peyton, Broncos, 2023 / 2024: 18 – 16, .529 winning %
#12) Doug Pederson, Jaguars, 2022 / 2023: 18 – 17, .514 winning %, 1 – 1 in playoffs
The coaches who had overall losing records in their first two seasons were Buffalo’s Sean McDermott, the Bengals’ Zac Taylor, Detroit’s Dan Campbell, Indianapolis’ Shan Steichen, the Raiders’ Antonio Pierce, the Giants’ Brian Daboll, the Jets’ Robert Saleh, San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan, and Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles.
Quinn’s 12 – 5 first year win-loss record, which is a .706 winning percentage, would place him third on this list. Here’s a list of Quinn’s hypothetical overall winning percentages after the 2025 season based on different records:
- 16 – 1 = a total of 28 – 6, .825 winning percentage
- 15 – 2 = a total of 27 – 7, .794 winning percentage
- 14 – 3 = a total of 26 – 8, .764 winning percentage
- 13 – 4 = a total of 25 – 9, .735 winning percentage
- 12 – 5 = a total of 24 – 10, .706 winning percentage
- 11 – 6 = a total of 23 – 11, .676 winning percentage
- 10 – 7 = a total of 22 – 12, .647 winning percentage
- 9 – 8 = a total of 21 – 13, .618 winning percentage
- 8 – 9 = a total of 20 – 14, .588 winning percentage
- 7 – 9 = a total of 19 – 15, .559 winning percentage
- 6 – 10 = a total of 18 – 16, .529 winning percentage
- 5 – 11 = a total of 17 – 17, .500 winning percentage
As you can see, things would have to go unexpectedly, horribly wrong for Quinn to not remain near the top of this list. In addition, the only coaches on this list who were able to get their teams to at least a conference championship game are all in the top 6, i.e., McVay, Tomlin, Sirianni, and John Harbaugh, who each had winning percentages of .625 or higher in their first two years. Quinn could join that select group just by winning 10 games this year, even without any additional playoff wins.
Andy Reid’s first two years in Kansas City were good, but not great, but he needs to be included as one of the league’s best coaches. In fact, with the departure of Bill Belichick, he’s probably the NFL’s #1. Let’s throw him into this list as well. I’d also subjectively throw Buffalo’s Sean McDermott and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan into the mix as well, despite his 10 – 22 record in his first two in 2017 and 2018.
For the sake of context, Washington legend Joe Gibbs had a 16 – 9 record in his first two seasons, for a .640 winning percentage, plus a win in Super Bowl XVII in 1983. He was only 8 – 8 in 1981, then improved to 9 – 1 in the strike-shortened 1982 season.
The point here is that Dan Quinn will be on his way towards becoming one of the NFL’s top head coaches if he can come anywhere close to duplicating his 2024 success. Loosely, Quinn could vault himself into the NFL’s top 6 with anything approaching a good season in 2025. Quinn’s record as head coach in Atlanta in the six years from 2015 to 2020 was just 43 – 42, but it appears as though he’s both learned some lessons and is in a better situation. Washington’s defense wasn’t good last year, in particular the run defense, which was one of the NFL’s worst. Quinn must figure out how to improve in that area without much draft or free agency help. Odds are good that they aren’t going to be able duplicate season’s success if they don’t get better on defense.
I’d say Washington perhaps had a bit of fortuitous scheduling, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, that allowed them to get to the NFL Championship game last season. Considering the fact that their regular season schedule is going to be more difficult this coming season, they may not be able to duplicate 2024’s record or success. That doesn’t mean that they still can’t or won’t have a good year in 2025.
Team success obviously isn’t just about coaching. The front office needs to provide talent, or else no amount of great head coaching is going to turn a franchise into champions. Regardless, objectively, Quinn is clearly on the right track to be included on the short list of great NFL coaches.