Heinicke, Howell and Hyping the Backup QB Controversy

Posted on by

September 1, 2022

By Paul Francis

If you’ve been a fan of the Washington “whatevers” for a long period of time, then you have to know that this team loves a good quarterback controversy.  Whether it’s Billy Kilmer v. Sonny Jurgenson, Jay Schroeder v. Doug Williams, Heath Shuler v. Gus Frerotte, Kirk Cousins v. RGIII, or…ummm…Alex Smith v. Taylor Heinicke (some of these are obviously more consequential than others) the fans seem to love a good quarterback kerfuffle around here almost as much as a win.

But with Carson Wentz firmly entrenched as a starter, we go to the backups to find our controversy this time around, and I think we have a live one!

The Contenders

In one corner we have the backup darling of yesteryear in Taylor Heinicke.  It was only 2 seasons ago when Heinicke peeled himself off his sister’s couch to be Washington’s COVID-emergency QB.  Between injuries and ineffective play from the quarterbacks in front of him, it didn’t take long for Heinicke to get his shot.  He sure took it by throwing, scrambling, and pylon-diving his way into our hearts, a 2-year contract extension and a Bud Light endorsement.

In the other corner we have rookie hopeful extraordinaire Sam Howell.  Seeking a redemption bid of his own, Howell went from potential 1st Round pick to 5th Round slide, getting drafted after Bailey Zappe.  Ouch.  But Washington benefitted from Howell’s tumble, and after a bright preseason showing, he’s poised to perhaps enter the season as something a bit more than just a project-in-waiting.  How much more is the discussion point for today.  What’s the case for Sam Howell leap-frogging Taylor Heinicke on the depth chart and entering the season as the backup quarterback?

The Resumes

Let’s reestablish the resume of apparent-backup Taylor Heinicke.  Last season as a starter, Heinicke completed 65% of his passes for 3419 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.  His 85.9 passer rating was 22nd among starting quarterbacks who played 12 or more games.  He also added 313 rushing yards and a touchdown.  These are mediocre stats for a starter, but as a backup this kind of production is pretty darn good.  He clearly struggled with certain aspects of being a starter, especially the arm-talent required for consistent intermediate and deep throws.  But overall Heinicke displayed a good grasp of the offense and a penchant for the kind of intangibles that can keep a team in the game.  Along the way he earned the respect of both teammates and coaches, which is very important for a player in a leadership role on the field.  As far as backups go, you could certainly do much worse than Taylor Heinicke.

But Sam Howell has showed something this preseason.  After leading the Commanders on an encouraging (but short-lived) comeback against the Panthers, Howell struggled a bit in Kansas City.  But given the opportunity to play the whole third preseason game against Baltimore, Howell bounced back in an encouraging way.  After all was said and done, Howell finished the preseason as the NFL leader with 547 passing yards.  He completed 62% of his passes with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, but also showed good mobility with 94 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.  While making some typical rookie mistakes along the way, Howell also showed good overall poise.  The moment clearly wasn’t too big for him.  Like Heinicke, he showed a penchant for improvising to keep a play alive and move the chains.

With that all in mind, we make the cases for each one.

The Case for Taylor Heinicke

Argument 1: You don’t just hand someone’s job to the new guy, unless the new guy has clearly earned it.  Taylor Heinicke has earned his spot on the roster, the trust of his teammates, and the respect of the coaches.  He’s done his homework in the playbook.  He’s arrived early; he’s stayed late.  He’s been there when the team has needed him to step up most.  If the Commanders really want to become a respected organization that does things the right way, then there’s something to be said for respecting veteran seniority and a truly competitive process where people work their way up the roster.  Howell has looked good in preseason, but has he done enough to clearly wipe out Heinicke’s body of work from the last year?  Organizations that do things the right way tend to give their rookie projects time to develop, settle in and learn from the guys in front, and that’s where Sam Howell is right now.

Argument 2: Taylor Heinicke has won games in the NFL, Sam Howell has not.  Heinicke obviously has the experience edge, and while Heinicke may not have the chops to be a long-term starter in the NFL, let’s not forget that he’s won games and kept the team competitive.  He’s also done it against other NFL starters.  By contrast, Sam Howell played well against guys who will soon be on the street (in fairness to him, he’s also had to play with some of those guys) and despite his bright play against the Ravens, the Commanders still lost and didn’t score many points.

The Case for Sam Howell

Argument 1: Sam Howell looks like the more talented quarterback.  Heinicke may have an edge over Howell in areas like experience, grasp of the offense, and team leadership, but there is no doubt that Howell has the better arm.  Of course, Howell needs to get in his playbook and take command of the offense, but if you want a backup quarterback who has the capacity to make the same kinds of throws that you are game-planning for Carson Wentz, then Sam Howell is probably your better bet.  Howell has also displayed the ability to take off and keep chains moving with his feet.  Throwing or scrambling, Howell has the talent to “out-Heinicke” Heinicke himself.

Argument 2: Sam Howell could be the future, and the future is now.  Both Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke are 29 years old.  They are what they are, and their ceilings are limited.  Sam Howell’s potential is yet to be tapped.  And if his preseason flashes are a fair indicator of things to come, then that potential could be very exciting.  As the saying goes, NFL stands for “Not For Long”.  Neither Wentz nor Heinicke have any guaranteed money after this season.  Accelerating the development of Sam Howell by putting him in the backup role is an investment that could pay dividends sooner rather than later. If you figure the only big thing that Howell is missing is experience, then the only way to provide that is by giving him some experience.  That won’t come by keeping him buried on the depth chart.  And with Rivera and his whole Commanders project on the warm seat, it’s a move with both present and future in mind.

Verdict:  Taylor Heinicke* (with an asterisk)

I think Rivera has to go with experience over potential this season.  It’s year three of his rebuild and the Commanders need to win games now.  It’s not a year for experiments or the hope of potential just yet.  If Wentz goes down in a game, you need a guy who you know has the ability to step in and win.  While Heinicke’s lack of arm talent might limit your playbook to an extent, there’s still a lot to like about his capacity to keep the team in it.  Most of the rest of the starters are also going to know what they are getting in Heinicke too.  That kind of familiarity and rapport shouldn’t be overlooked in game conditions when the pressure is on.

*I put an asterisk on my verdict, though, because there is a realistic scenario where I can see Sam Howell leapfrogging not only Taylor Heinicke, but Carson Wentz as well.  This would be the Doomsday Scenario.  Carson Wentz gets knocked out of the lineup with a bad injury, and Taylor Heinicke steps in but the team plays poorly.  The Commanders are something like 3-10, the season is tanked, and Ron Rivera’s warm seat is heating up quickly.  In this perfectly plausible scenario, the Commanders could go into the bye week and decide that the future is now, and it’s Sam Howell’s team for the rest of the year.  It’s not like we haven’t seen Ron Rivera make bold quarterback moves here before when the situation warrants, right?

While the dreaming fan in me would love to see what Sam Howell can do for this franchise, at the end of the day, I really hope it’s not this year.  Not because I don’t think the kid can play, but if he does, that would mean this season’s gone to complete rot.  Part of me is used to that (maybe even expects it), but I certainly can never hope for it.

In a perfect scenario, Carson Wentz will step up and play at his best capacity, and the Commanders will take advantage of a supposedly easy schedule to win the division, and then see what the postseason holds.  Howell will continue to develop properly and steadily and learn from the veteran guys in front.  Next season, when Heinicke’s contract expires, Howell will rise to the backup spot, from which he’ll continue to work and be ready to take over the full reins of the team from Wentz when the time is right.  By that point, Howell inherits a Commanders team that has a small winning tradition, as opposed to having to step in and carry the weight of turning around a franchise that has been losing consistently for decades.

Anyways, it’s a fun thought at least.  Just like our quarterback controversy debates.

So, weigh in, make your points and deliver your verdict.  Football is just around the corner, time to get in it!