Is Terry McLaurin in Washington’s future after 2025?

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May 27, 2025

by Steve Thomas

Washington’s star wide receiver, Terry McLaurin, is currently scheduled to become a free agent after the 2025 season.  He’s about to enter the final year of a three year, $68.36M contract with $34.6M guaranteed at signing and $53.154M that became guaranteed during the life of the contract.  He sat out of an OTA practice this week, leading some to speculate that it was a mini-holdout in protest of the fact that the Redskins’ Washington Football Team’s Commanders’ Washington’s front office has thusfar not offered him a contact extension, at least not one that we know of.  What’s going to happen here?  Where does McLaurin rank amongst his peers and how will that impact his financial value?  Let’s dive in.

McLaurin was drafted out of Ohio St. in the third round of the 2019 draft, 76th overall.  Over his six-year NFL career from 2019 to 2024, he’s played in and started a total of 97 games.  He’s only missed three games in his entire career, including two in his rookie season and 1 in 2020.  Over that time, he’s made 460 receptions in 726 targets, a 63.4% catch percentage, for 6379 yards, 13.9 yards per reception, and 38 touchdowns.  Last season was one of the most productive of his career, with 82 receptions in 117 targets, which is a 64.5% catch percentage, 1096 yards, 13.4 yards per reception, and 13 touchdowns, which was a career high.  His career high in catches was 87 in 2020.  His career high in yardage was 1191 in 2022, in which he had 77 receptions for 15.5 yards per reception.  McLaurin was elected to the Pro Bowl in 2022 and 2024, and earned Second-Team All-Pro honors in 2024.

McLaurin ranks 11th in the NFL in receptions by wide receivers from 2019 – 2024, behind the following:

These are the next five players behind McLaurin:

Over that period, McLaurin is ranked 9th in targets, 8th in total yardage, 13th in touchdowns, 39th in catch percentage, 17th in yards per reception, and 19th in yards per game.

McLaurin is generally one of top 15 or so receivers in the league by almost any measure.  At 29 years old, he certainly has several seasons left in his prime.  He’d therefore be justified in asking for one of the larger contracts for receiver in the NFL.  Of the top 15 players listed above, I think D.J. Moore and Chris Godwin have probably had the most similar careers to McLaurin in terms of both production and age:

Moore (age 27, 5’11 / 210) (Car, Chi): From 2018 – 2024, 558 receptions in 892 targets, 62.6% catch percentage, 7531 yards, 13.5 yards per reception, 35 touchdowns.  93 receptions in 2021; 1193 yards in 2020.

Godwin (age 28, 6’1” / 209) (TB): From 2017 – 2024, 579 receptions in 816 targets, 71% carch percentage, 7266 yards, 12.5 yards per reception, 39 touchdowns.  104 receptions in 2022.  1333 yards in 2019.

Moore signed a 4 year, $110M contract with the Bears in 2024, which covered the 2026 through 2029 seasons.  That contract had $43.65M guaranteed at signing, with a total of $81.525M guaranteed becoming guaranteed by the 2027 season.  That equates to an average annual value of $27.5M, 39.7% guaranteed at signing, and 74% guaranteed overall.  This may be in the ballpark of what McLaurin should be paid, with a couple of caveats: first, this is one year older, and second, Moore has never been to a Pro Bowl or earned Second-Team All-Pro Honors.  Those two points will need to be taken into account.

Godwin signed a 3 year, $66M contract extension this past March with $44M guaranteed at signing.  This equates to a $22M average annual value and 66.7% guaranteed at signing.  However, 2027 is a club option year, meaning the team can decline Godwin’s option and let him go.  It’s important to note that Godwin is Tampa’s #2 receiver behind Mike Evans, so this probably isn’t what McLaurin is going for.

Ja’Marr Chase has the largest contract for a receiver in the NFL.  He has a 4 year, $161M deal that extends through the 2029 season and has $73.9M guaranteed at signing and a total of $112M becoming guaranteed through the 2027 season.  This is a $40.25M average annual value, 45.9% guaranteed at signing, and 69.6% eventually becoming guaranteed.

Justin Jefferson is next, with a 4 year, $140M contract that runs through 2028 and had $88.7M guaranteed at signing, with $110M becoming guaranteed through 2027.  This equates to an average annual value of $35M, 63.3% guaranteed at signing, and 78.6% guaranteed overall.

CeeDee Lamb’s contract is in third place.  He has a 4 year, $136M deal that runs through 2028.  Lamb contract comes with $67M guaranteed at signing and $100M guaranteed overall through the 2027 season. This equals $34M in average annual value, 49.2% guaranteed at signing, and 73.5% becoming guaranteed over the life of the contract.

What does this mean for McLaurin?  First, the odds are good that he won’t get a five year contract at most – there isn’t a single 5 year deal in the top 100 NFL receiver contracts.  Second, Washington is going to have to beat D.J. Moore’s contract even though Moore has been slightly more productive and is younger than McLaurin.  However, Chase, Jefferson, and Lamb are all better receivers than McLaurin and probably deserve bigger contracts, even considering that all of their deals are a year old now.  Chase, Jefferson, and Lamb are First-Team All-Pro caliber players.   McLaurin simply isn’t.

What we can take from all of these contracts, though, is that McLaurin should get somewhere in the neighborhood of 45% – 49% guaranteed at signing and between 75% – 80% becoming guaranteed over the life of the contract.

Considering McLaurin’s importance to the franchise, I think Washington should give him a 4 year deal, not 3 years.  Taking into account the fact that Washington will need to beat D.J. Moore’s contract, I think that Washington will be willing to go for at least $30M in average annual value, but not up to the $40M value of Chase.

All of this equates to a probable contract value in the neighborhood of four years and between $130M – $135M, with between $55M – $60M guaranteed at signing and around $100M becoming guaranteed over the life of the contract.  I’m not going to go through the effort of predicting specific cap hits, although I’ve done that many times for other contract predictions.  Generally speaking, though, most signing bonuses for these players are in the 25% – 29% range, which would put McLaurin’s signing bonus at between $32.5M and $39M.  Those numbers would pro-rate out to between $8.125M and $9.75M in added cap hits each year, unless the team was willing to add void years to the end in order to further reduce it, which they’ve done for other players.  The point is that while McLaurin will have a large cap hit, I think the team can probably sign him in the range of $30M or so per year in cap hits without too many contractual gyrations.  Considering that the salary cap has been going up at least $10M per year recently, that’s doable.

So that’s my guess as to where McLaurin and Washington will eventually end up: four years, $130M – $135M, with $55M – $60M guaranteed at signing, and somewhere around $100M becoming fully guaranteed over the life of the contract.  It’s not impossible to think that the team could go way over that, but in my view, there’s no need to do so.  I do believe that, one way or the other, this will get done, because Washington needs McLaurin and he’s a fan favorite.

What do you think?  Am I close?  Let me know in the comment section.

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