Rapid Response: My Strongly Neutral Reaction to Carson Wentz
March 14, 2022
By Paul Francis
Did we just pull Albert Haynesworth out of his burger joint and give him another $100 million to play a position that he hates? Or go back to Josh Norman and make him the highest paid cornerback in the NFL…again? Or re-sign RG3 and send a few first round picks over to the Rams for nostalgia? I’ve been around long enough to see Washington wet itself through the sheets, mattress and the carpet. But, really, folks, this is not one of those times.
Carson Wentz as a quarterback is a true Rorshach Test. When you look at him as a player, you can see what you want to see in his career: positive or negative. He is a deeply mixed bag, which makes him both intriguing and available. But this column isn’t focused so much on Carson Wentz the player, as it is focused on the move Washington made to get him and the triggered reactions. This is not an extreme move one way or the other. It is not some great coup of a deal conducted by the front office with a clear pathway to a Super Bowl, but neither is it a Vinny-esque fiasco destined to make a bad situation worse.
Now hear me out. I’m not running out to get a Carson Wentz jersey (though my buddy from Philly offered to give me his, and I think I’ll take it for kicks and giggles). But this move to get Wentz is 100% perfectly completely NOT a nuclear meltdown moment. I think we are so spring-loaded as a fanbase to presume that everything our organization does stinks (for good reason), that we’re just programmed to see it, whether it’s really there or not.
The healthy skepticism around this move is completely warranted, and I share it. But it is a tempered and measured skepticism, not charged with angst and vitriol towards the FO. There are 2 things that I am reminded of while processing this Wentz acquisition that cause me to land firmly on my strongly neutral stance:
1) There Were Never Any Really Good Options
I keep posing this question to the folks freaking out about this move, but never get a clear answer: What is the obviously better choice that we had to improve the quarterback position?
Now, there can be NO DOUBT that we ABSOLUTELY need to try to improve the quarterback position, right? I’d think that we are all on that page together, if you’ve been watching the same team I have since Ron Rivera took over. The one that has variously started Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Alex “Peg-leg” Smith, Taylor Heinicke, and Garrett Gilbert. There was also that brief moment we had 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick for about a dozen snaps before his hip went “snap” and ended his tenure right as it began; does that count? Let’s face it. The team’s rebuild is stuck unless something different can happen at the quarterback position for us. Year 3 of a 5 year rebuild is where you run out of time to play it safe and hope some solution for your most important position emerges on its own, and keep patching up things around it.
So, what are the options? And I mean “real” options. I’m not talking about making fantasy bids for players that aren’t actually available, like Derek Carr. I’m talking about actual better options. Let’s break some down:
Russell Wilson – We tried to give away the farm for Russell Wilson and failed. I’m actually a bit relieved we failed, because I don’t think that paying 3 first rounders plus players for a 34 year old QB coming off an injury season whose franchise seemed happy to part with him is a “really good option”. At that point, you believe that what we have, plus Russell Wilson, is sufficient to compete for a Super Bowl for the next several years, because the drain of resources keeps you locked into where you are. But whether you think that’s a better option or not, it’s not happening. Moving on.
Jimmy Garoppolo – Another viable option would have been to try to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. But this is simply a lateral move from Carson Wentz. We would still giving up assets for a flawed, injury-prone starter who doesn’t rise to the occasion. He will also certainly demand a contract extension that would at least be in Wentz’s range. He’s also getting surgery this offseason, and he’s a year older than Wentz. Is he really a good option?
A Battle of the Leftovers – Another option is to cull the scrap heap of leftover quarterbacks out there and wish-upon-a-star that one of them is better than Taylor Heinicke. The allure of this route is that it is cheap. But as the saying goes, you often get what you pay for. Names that pop up in this scenario have included Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston and Mitchell Trubisky. First, let’s state the obvious. The reason these guys are available on the “cheap” is because they already crapped-out of their initial opportunities.
Mariota got worse every season he played in the NFL before landing in Jon Gruden’s Harem of Backup QBs. He has attempted 30 passes in the last 2 seasons. Is he really a good option?
Winston crapped out of Tampa Bay before landing in a quarterback committee as a salvage project in New Orleans. He was rounding into a good season under the tutelage of Sean Payton, until an ACL blowout ended his year. Is he going to be healthy next year? Can Washington’s staff do what Payton did with him for half of a season? Would he even want to play here, or would we have to overpay with a multiyear contract in the free agent market? Is he really a good option?
Trubisky, like Carson Wentz, came into the league as a 2nd overall pick boasting athleticism and a strong arm. However, unlike Wentz, he never showed MVP-caliber play on the field, and racked up turnovers before getting benched and released into the wild, where he found shelter as a backup with the Bills. Is he really a good option?
Draft a Guy – A few weeks back I wrote an column about why I believe Kenny Pickett could be as good as Justin Herbert. While I still believe that I am hard-pressed to say that banking the 2022 season on that assessment is a “really good” option. Truth be told it is a prayer, just like every draft pick. First, we presume that a QB will be there at #11. Picket and Malik Willis (the other guy in this option) could easily be gone by then. If Washington starts trading assets to move up, things start getting expensive. Developing a draft pick is a great idea and necessary for this organization overall, and I think there is still a good chance we draft one this year. But developing a draft pick is different from starting a draft pick in Year 3 of a 5-year rebuild and expecting to see a jump to the next level immediately. Is that really a good option?
Opinions may range that one of these other options is speculative and marginally preferable to others, but fact remains they are ALL “desperation” options. That’s where we are. So if this Wentz move reeks of desperation, that’s because it is. But then again, ALL of the options are desperate, so the point is trivial.
2) The Laws of NFL Reality Apply to Washington as Well
As a rule, NFL teams overpay for starting quarterbacks. They overpay to get them (unless drafted), and they overpay to retain them. There are exceptions to this rule, but an exception, by definition, is a rare occurrence not likely to transpire. The voices that are lamenting “how much we gave up” to get Wentz seem to suffer from cognitive dissonance, as if it is a shocking surprise that the laws of NFL Reality have applied to Washington.
Some people seem upset because they believe Wentz would certainly have been released in a week, and then we could have simply snatched him up off the free agent market for pennies on the dollar. This scenario suffers from several speculative fantasies inconsistent with the Laws of NFL Reality. First, no one actually knows that the Colts would have released Wentz. Rumors abound. Some rumors say that the Colts were certainly determined to jettison Wentz. I’ve seen another rumor mention that Ballard and Reich wanted to give Wentz one more season, but Jim Irsay bigfooted the situation and told them to consider trade offers. But if Twitter rumors from unnamed sources define your reality, then you also have to accept the rumor-reality that there were other teams making trade offers to the Colts. And if that is the case, then Washington was in a bidding war for a player that was never going to be released, just shipped off to the team with the best offer on the table.
Then there is another Law of NFL Reality to cope with – free agents aren’t clamoring to play here. So even in the unlikely event that Wentz became a free agent with other options out there, the Laws of NFL Reality suggest that Washington would have to overpay anyhow just to get him to pay attention. Whatever other baggage Carson Wentz may bring along with him, the facts remain that he was productive last season, and he has clear NFL-caliber talent. When a quarterback boasts those qualities while still (barely) sitting on the younger side of 30 years old, there WILL be a market for his services. Period. Other coaches and organizations out there are going to believe that, given the chance, they can get the best out of that kind of player.
I’m of the opinion that what we surrendered for Wentz isn’t a terribly egregious overpay. The team held onto its first round picks and at least one more 2nd round pick, which is huge, because they retain the flexibility to keep building through marquee draft players. Washington is taking on a hefty-looking salary next year, but once the quarterback market for extensions play out I think that $28 million is going to look normal. Second-tier quarterbacks are going to be making money in the $30M + range, which makes Wentz’s salary in the high $20M range more realistic. Again, no position gets overpaid in the NFL more than the quarterback position – Laws of NFL Reality that apply here as well. Furthermore, we can bail from Wentz’s contract after this season if it really goes sideways. One of the things that dogged this organization in the Alex Smith trade was that Washington couldn’t get out of his contract for several years without taking a devastating cap hit, remember? That’s not the case this time around, which mitigates the hit of the salaries and expense of this acquisition.
I get the harsh reactions, I really do. I’ve been a miserable Washington “Whatevers” fan for the past 30 years just like you. And it is easy to presume the worst in all they do. But let’s take a deep breath, fellow fans, and stay grounded. Let’s remind ourselves of the things we already knew. Washington is desperate, there are no really good options out there, and the laws of NFL Reality apply to us just like most other teams.
With all that in mind, I offer Carson Wentz a very heartfelt and neutral welcome to the Washington Commanders.