All in for Dak . . . or Deshaun
February 1, 2021
by Steve Thomas
News flash: the Washington Redskins need Washington needs a franchise quarterback. They’ve essentially been searching for a player of this caliber since Joe Theismann went into involuntary retirement in 1985. Sure, the team has been through some quality quarterbacks, and some who broke barriers, like Doug Williams, Mark Rypien (Was he a franchise quarterback in his own right? Maybe so, but he only played here for 6 years), Brad Johnson, Jason Campbell, and Alex Smith, plus others who were supposed to be The Man for this franchise, but weren’t, like Robert Griffin III and Dwayne Haskins. Washington has been through an insane number of quarterbacks over the course of a generation, and the list grows longer every season.
The franchise has a chance to fix this problem once and for all right now, and they should move heaven and to get it done.
I’m talking about Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. Both are legit franchise quarterbacks, and either one of these players could fundamentally alter the direction of the franchise for a decade.
It’s possible that neither of them will actually hit the market, and frankly, the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans would be fools to let it happen. However, there’s a better than zero chance that one or both teams will actually let their quarterback walk, in the case of Prescott, or leave via trade in the case of Watson. Dallas seems to be concerned about the effect of an enormous new contract or their long term salary cap outlook, and it’s a valid thought. There’s been no news out of Dallas to indicate that the team and the player are even talking about a deal right now. Dallas could put the exclusive franchise tag on him for a second year in a row, but as all Washington fans know, there’s a “law of diminishing returns” impact of such an action. It’s not crazy to think that Dallas either lets him walk or applies a lower-level tag that would allow them to have a right of first refusal on contract offers and give them a first round pick coming back from the gaining team.
Watson, on the other hand, is currently throwing a childish hissy fit that is related to some combination of his involvement, or lack thereof, in the hiring of the head coach and/or general manager as well as the general direction and leadership of the franchise. To be clear, my advice to the owner of the Houston Texans would be to sit down with Watson, and tell him: (1) we are sorry that things have gone bad here, (2) you are the centerpiece of this franchise and we’ll treat you as such going forward, (3) please forgive us and let’s move forward together, and (4) that having been said, we aren’t trading you no matter what offers we get and no matter what you do, period dot the end. Watson has formally requested a trade, and thusfar Houston’s leadership, to their credit, has given no indication that they are going to entertain such a thing. To make the situation more difficult, Watson has a no-trade clause in his contract, which means that he has approval authority over where the Texans may send him. For those reasons, Washington being in a position to even have a chance at grabbing Watson is a long shot. The career-killing New York Jets are the team thrown around as his preferred destination, for some bizarre reason.
If I was in charge in Washington, I’d move heaven and earth to get one of them. The rumor mill said that Washington made an offer for Matthew Stafford before his trade to the Rams, so that’s an indication that they will go after Prescott and Watson as well.
A major requirement for this to work is for Alex Smith to not be on the roster, either through retirement, trade, or outright release, because of his $24.4M cap hit. The latter is a pretty cold-hearted thing to do considering that he literally almost died for this team, and I’m not totally convinced that they’ll actually do it, but we’ll see. The problem is that it’s essentially impossible for Washington to have two quarterbacks on the roster for more than a combined $50M even in the best of times, but particularly with the salary cap going down to as low as $175M in 2021.
Getting Prescott may be as simple as offering him a deal in the range of $35M – $40M per year in Average Annual Value, and possibly forking over a first round pick in franchise tag compensation. I’d do both in a split second and not think twice about it.
A prerequisite to any deal for Watson needs to include assurances that Watson isn’t going to have a bad attitude here in DC, because the way he’s handled himself in recent times has turned me off. Assuming that isn’t a problem, the question then becomes what to offer the Texans. In exchange for trading Matthew Stafford to the Rams, Detroit received Jared Goff plus the Rams’ 2021 third round pick and first round picks in 2022 and 2023. Watson has a higher value than does Stafford, so Washington would have to beat two firsts, a third, and a good player. The real question isn’t whether they should make an offer; rather, the question is how high they should go.
Before you give an automatic “no” – because I’m aware that some of you wouldn’t even consider a trade of this magnitude – remember that this isn’t a deal for a college kid with potential. We’re talking about a proven 25 year old franchise quarterback who is under contract through 2024. That’s unheard of. Players like him are almost never available. It’s a much bigger prize than, say, the right to draft Trevor Lawrence this year or Bob Griffin #3 in 2012. My opinion on this issue has changed over the last two weeks. When this topic came up on The Hog Sty Podcast two weeks ago, I initially said that I wouldn’t go higher than two first round picks. Now, after thinking about it, I’m not sure there’s a price that’s too high to pay for Watson. The biggest problem for Washington is that they are only #19 in draft order, which means that any offer would need to take that into account. Assuming that Watson’s attitude wasn’t a problem, I’d make an initial offer of three first round picks, plus at least two more lower-round picks, and a player. What player, you ask? Let’s take a look at Washington’s defensive line – the team has more quality players than they can afford to pay on a long-term basis. I can’t see Washington trading either Jonathan Allen or Chase Young, but in my view, Matthew Ioannidis and Daron Payne should be on the table. Maybe even Montez Sweat if that’s what it would take.
That’s a big price, and it might even take a fourth first round pick in order to get the deal done, but the possibility of solving Washington’s quarterback dilemma for the next decade with a proven, young franchise player is too good to pass up.
I’d prefer Dak Prescott first, simply because he might be a free agent, or at worst, would only require a first round pick, but if he isn’t possible, Watson should be on the table. Washington already proved that they are willing to make a trade via their rumored offer for Stafford, so if Prescott isn’t an option, they should take the next step and go after Watson.
Do it, Washington. Do it now, and you won’t regret it.