2019 Draft Preview: Tight Ends

March 29, 2019

by Steve Thomas

The draft is now less than one month away! Get excited, everyone!  In all seriousness, the Redskins have a long list of needs, even for them.  It’s not possible for the team to fill every hole in one draft, but because the team has four picks in the top 100, they should be able to come away with a number of starters.  So far, we’ve covered interior offensive line (click here), running backs (click here), wide receivers (click here and here), defensive line (click here), inside linebackers (click here), edge rushers (click here), and safeties (click here).  Tight ends are up this week.

On its face, the Redskins’ tight end group seems to be in fairly good shape.  After all, All-World Jordan Reed is at the top of the depth chart, followed by the ageless Vernon Davis, 2017 draft pick Jeremy Sprinkle, plus J.P. Holtz. Manasseh Garner, and Matt Flanagan, who are all practice squad / back of the roster types.  The Redskins have a small fortune tied up in Reed and Davis, the former being famously injury prone and the latter being well past his prime.  Together, Reed and Davis cost the Redskins almost $16M in cap space in 2019.  Both of these players should be cut immediately.  I am fully aware that Reed, in particular, plays at an All Pro level, but the fact of the matter is that he’s never played more than 14 games in a season in his career and averages 10 or 11 per year.  That’s unacceptable for a guy occupying $9.6M of cap space.  Davis is a great player and an even better person, but he’s now 35 years old and seems to have lost a step.  The Redskins also need to find an effective in-line blocker.  The team would be wise to bring in a talented replacement for either or both of them.  This year’s crop of tight ends is chock full of highly talented and capable players who have strong NFL futures.  As I always say, I don’t claim to be a scout.  These writeups are a combination of my personal observations and my study of the analysis of real experts.  That having been said, let’s take a look.

1. T.J. Hockenson, 6’5” / 251, Iowa. Hockenson played in 23 games in two seasons for the Hawkeyes after redshirting his freshman year, with a total of 73 receptions for 1,080 yards, 14.8 yards per reception, and 9 touchdowns.  He was a First Team All-Big Ten selection in 2018.  At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.7 seconds (tied for 3rd amongst tight ends), did 19 bench press reps at 225 pounds, jumped 37.5 inches in the vertical leap (2nd among TEs), jumped 10’3” in the standing broad jump (2nd amongst TEs), ran the 3 cone drill in 7.02 seconds, the 20 yard shuttle in 4.18 seconds (2nd amongst TEs), and the 60 yard shuttle in 11.55 seconds (2nd amongst TEs).  Hockenson has everything teams want in a tight end prospect: size, natural hands, and blocking ability in the mold of Heath Miller.  He’s a classic tight end who is the consensus #1 ranked prospect this year.  He should be an instant starter who should be gone by the middle of round 1.

2. Noah Fant, 6’4” / 249, Iowa. Fant played 30 games in three seasons at Iowa, making 78 receptions for 1,083 yards, 13.9 yards per reception, and 19 touchdowns.  He was a First Team All-Big Ten selection in 2018 and a Third Team selection in 2017.  Fant is a “freak of nature” kind of athlete, and destroyed the objective measurables portion of the NFL Combine, coming in first among tight ends in nearly every category.  He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.50 seconds, jumped 39.5 inches in the vertical leap and 10’7” in the standing broad jump, and ran the 3 cone drill in 6.81 seconds, the 20 yard shuttle in 4.22 seconds (3rd), and the 60 yard shuttle in 11.49 seconds.  He also did 20 bench press reps at 225 pounds, which was ranked 3rd.  Fant is an extraordinary pass catcher, with burst and very natural hands, and will be a mismatch in route running for all but the very best NFL linebackers.  Fant’s downside is that he is not a good blocker and would not be able to effectively fill the role of in-line blocker that the Redskins need; however, if Washington chooses to cut Jordan Reed for salary cap purposes, Fant is his perfect younger and slightly bigger replacement.  Fant should be a round 1 selection.

3. Irv Smith, Jr., 6’2” / 242, Alabama. Smith is the son of former NFL tight end Irv Smith, Sr., who played for 7 years for the Saints, 49ers, and Browns.  Smith Jr. attended Alabama for three years, but only saw playing time in 2017 and 2018.  He played 24 games, making 58 receptions for 838 yards, for an average of 14.4 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns.  He was a Second Team All-SEC selection in 2018.  Smith is not overly athletic, posting mostly pedestrian numbers at the NFL Combine.  He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.63 seconds, jumped 32.5 inches in the vertical leap and 9’2” in the standing broad jump, and did 19 reps of the bench press.  Smith looks small and is never going to be a plus-level in-line blocker in the NFL, but did demonstrate better than expected blocking technique at the Combine.  He was clearly the third-best prospect at the Combine behind Hockenson and Fant.  Smith is a pass-catching tight end first and foremost, with good hands, route-running skills, and long speed.  Like Fant, he will be a mismatch for NFL linebackers and would be a quality replacement for the always injured Jordan Reed.  Most importantly, Smith is from Alabama, which is clearly the most important factor to the Redskins front office.  He is expected to be a first or second round selection.

4. Jace Sternberger, 6’4” / 251, Texas A&M. Sternberger began his college career at Kansas, where he redshirted his freshman year in 2015, then played in just two games in 2016.  He transferred to a community college Northestern Oklahoma A&M for the 2017 season, then moved to Texas A&M this past season, where he was a Consensus First-Team All-American and First Team All-SEC selection.  In 2018, he had 48 receptions for 837 yards, 17.1 yards per reception, and 10 touchdowns.  At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.75 seconds, bench pressed 225 pounds 17 times, jump 31.5 inches in the vertical leap and 9’5” in the standing broad jump.  His 20 yard shuttle and 60 yard shuttle times were both middle of the pack, at 4.31 and 12.09 seconds, respectively.  Sternberger was a major weapon for the Aggies last year, and has the route running capabilities of a wide receiver.  He’s not a burner, even by tight end standards, but he’s difficult to tackle and sometimes dragged SEC defensive backs and linebackers for many yards after catch last season.  Sternberger knows how to find space and create his own in traffic.  His blocking skills are not at the level of his receiving skills.  Sternberger is an NFL-starter level player and should be drafted by the third round.

5. Kahale Warring, 6’5” / 252 San Diego St. Warring played 19 games in four seasons at San Diego St., making a total of 51 receptions for 637 yards, an average of 12.5 yards per receptions, and 8 touchdowns.  He was not a full-time starter.  Warring had decent objective measurables at the NFL Combine, running the 40 yard dash in 4.67 seconds, with 19 bench press reps, and 36.5 inches in the vertical leap.  Warring only played one season of high school football, but starred in other many other sports, so while he’s a quality athlete, he’s inexperienced and could benefit from pro coaching.  Dropped easy balls at the Combine and in games.  He’s not known as a great blocker.  Warring clearly isn’t fully formed as a football player, but has a ton of athletic potential for down the road.

6. Dawson Knox, 6’4” / 254, Mississippi. Knox was a 2 year starter who played in 18 games in four years, with 39 receptions for 605 yards, and an average of 15.5 yards per reception. He only had 15 receptions as a senior in 2018, but averaged an incredible 18.9 yards per reception.  Knox did not score a touchdown in college.  He did not run the 40 yard dash at the Combine, but jumped 34.5 inches in the vertical leap, ran the 3 cone drill in 7.12 seconds (4th fastest amongst tight ends) and 4.27 in the short shuttle.  He has classic NFL in-line tight end size.  Comes across as fairly athletic, with good hands and solid route running ability.  Some analysts believe he was underutilized at Mississippi.  Knox has tons of potential to be an all-around NFL tight end with time and pro coaching.

7. Isaac Nauta, 6’3” / 244, Georgia. Played 33 games in 3 years for the Bulldogs, with 68 receptions for 905 yards, 13.3 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns. He was the top tight end prospect in the country coming out of high school and was a 2016 Freshman All-American.  His objective measurables at the NFL Combine were not spectacular: 4.91 seconds in the 40 yard dash, 19 bench press reps, a 28 inch vertical leap, and 12.26 seconds in the 60 yard shuttle.  He looked slow and awkward when running routes during Combine drills, but has more game speed than track speed.  At Georgia, he lined up as an in-line tight end, in the slot, and occasionally as an H-back.  Nauta will be a traditional starter-level tight end in the NFL, a significant asset as a blocker and contributor in the short passing game.

8. Josh Oliver, 6’5” / 249, San Jose St. Oliver played 30 games in 4 seasons in college, with 98 receptions for 1,067 yards, 10.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.63 seconds and jumped 34.5 inches in the vertical leap at the NFL Combine. Oliver is another prospect who is a poor blocker but is quality receiver with good hands and the ability to run the entire route tree. He is considered a decent prospect who could become an NFL starter in time.

9. Kaden Smith, 6’5” / 255, Stanford. Smith redshirted 2016 at Stanford, which was his freshman year, but played 20 games in 2017 and 2018, making 70 receptions for 1,049 yards, 15.0 yards per attempt, and 7 touchdowns. He was named as a Second Team All-PAC 12 selection in 2018.  Smith is not overly athletic, running just 4.92 seconds in the 40 yard dash, 15 bench press reps, with 32 inches in the vertical leap and 9’0” in the standing broad jump.  He doesn’t show much burst and isn’t dynamic but does have better top-end speed.  Smith is known as a passable run blocker and has decent hands, but experts don’t view him as being a quality receiver at the level of some of the others in this draft class.  He has the size of a traditional NFL in-line tight end and is aggressive.  Draft grades for Smith are all over the place, with some viewing him as the third-best behind Hockenson and Fant, and others viewing him as a day three selection.

10. Alize Mack, 6’4” / 249, Notre Dame. Mack played 24 games in four years at Notre Dame but missed the entire 2016 season as a result of being academically ineligible. In his college career, he had 68 receptions for 716 yards, 10.5 yards per attempt, and 4 touchdowns.  Mack showed some decent athleticism at the NFL Combine, running the 40 yard dash in 4.70 seconds (tied with Hockenson for 7th among tight ends), posting 22 bench press reps, jumping 36 inches in the vertical leap and 10’0” in the standing broad jump, but ran the 3 cone drill in just 7.27 seconds.  On film, he’s a smooth runner and shows some burst by tight end standards.  Mack is a quality route runner.  He has experience playing both in-line and out of the slot.  He showed decent hands at the Combine but did drop balls at Notre Dame.  Mack needs help with his blocking technique and doesn’t appear to be overly physical or aggressive.  He’s most likely a day three selection and would be a good value in that range.

There are really 4 high-end prospects in this class, Hockenson, Fant, Smith, and Sternberger, and the Redskins would be wise to cut save cap space by cutting both Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and drafting one of these four players as their replacement.  This of course won’t happen, but it’s what the Redskins should do.  Kahale Warring and Dawson Knox would also be good additions to the team, but aren’t ready to replace quality starters like the other four.  Alize Mack would be a good day three gamble.

What do you think about the tight end group?  Let me know in the comment section.