Game Preview, Week 5: Redskins at Saints
October 5, 2018
by Steve Thomas
Redskins versus Saints. Live national audience on Monday Night Football. Two first place teams. Drew Brees about to become the NFL’s all-time leading passer. Let’s not pretend that this isn’t a huge, potentially season-changing game for the Redskins this week. A win will mean that the team is in firm control of the NFC East, at least as much as possible this early in the season, will bring increased confidence to the players and coaches, and some legitimate league-wide and media-respect, long overdue. A loss will mean the continuance of the perception, right or wrong, that this is just the same ‘ole Redskins as always, mediocre and lacking big-game gravitas. It won’t be an easy test, because the Saints come with an elite offense, tailormade for a shootout in a dome under the lights. The Redskins do have a path to victory and the means to get the job done, but a whole lot of things are going to have to go right in order for that to happen. And by the way, the Redskins are already becoming a MASH unit again for the second year in a row. The Saints do have vulnerabilities, principally on defense, but you shouldn’t be under the illusion that this is some sort of a slam-dunk win just because Washington was able to overcome a hobbled Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago. I’m excited for the game; let’s hope it goes well.
Game time & location: Monday, October 8, 2018, 8:15 p.m. ET, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA; Gates open 5:15 p.m. ET; parking lots open time is unpublished, so please check your parking pass
Television: ESPN
Television announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland and Lisa Salters
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Saints radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 226/88 (Redskins broad./Nat’l broad.) Sirius: 81/88 (Redskins broad/Nat’l broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Saints roster: Click here
Saints depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Saints: 17 – 9 (last 10: 6 – 4)
Last meeting: L, November 19, 2017, 31 – 34
Early odds: Saints, -7
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Control the tempo
It is going to be important for the Redskins to control the tempo and pace of this game. Getting into a fast-paced shootout with New Orleans is not going to be the best way to win. The Redskins have been one of the heaviest-running teams in the NFL, particularly in their two wins. Washington needs to control the clock, which they’ve done well so far this year, and score points on long, time-consuming drives in order to keep Drew Brees and company off the field as much as possible. The Redskins need to play their game and win their way, not fall into the trap of trying to match New Orleans blow-for-blow. The latter is a sure-fire path to a loss.
Minimize the Drew Brees Effect
Drew Brees is one of the most talented quarterbacks in league history and has consistently dragged otherwise mediocre offenses and bad defenses to far more wins than the Saints otherwise should have had. The Redskins absolutely must do their best to keep him from being “that guy” on Monday night. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Redskins need to put up a ferocious, exotic, zone blitzing pass rush; in fact, the best way to face an offense like this is to get pressure on the quarterback via the front 3, which the Redskins have been good at this year, and then play tight coverage with help from the linebackers to reduce Brees’ ability to pick apart the defensive backfield. Blitzing him with linebackers and safeties will, in my view, only give him more opportunities considering his elite field vision and release. Sean Payton and his assistants are creative, out of the box play callers, and the Redskins need to have a top-flight gave from their defensive backfield in order to reduce his effectiveness.
Don’t let Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram go crazy
Mark Ingram returns to the Saints after serving his four game suspension for violation of the performance enhancing drug policy, which is unfortunate timing for Washington. Ingram brings tough, inside running, whereas Kamara excels in space and on the edge. The Saints’ offense really took off last season when they had the team of Kamara and Ingram both running at full strength. The Redskins probably won’t be able to totally shut this duo down, but keeping these two players from putting up massive numbers – in Kamara’s case on the ground and in the air – will be essential for a Redskins victory.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Will the real Ryan Kerrigan please stand up? While it’s certainly true that he has had an effect on games in other ways, as our friend Mark Bullock pointed out, it’s a fact that he’s produced very little in terms of objective numbers, sacks and tackles. As I said above, it is particularly important this week for the Redskins to get pressure on Brees with their base defensive front. Kerrigan’s highest and best use is as a pass rusher (probably in a 4-3, not a 3-4), and Washington will need him to produce and get to the quarterback this week. Kerrigan has beaten far more talented offensive linemen than Ramczyk, and it’s time for his mini-slump to end. His performance this week will be more important than you might think given the nature of the opponent.
Josh Doctson or his replacement vs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley
The Saints pass defense has been atrocious so far this year and Washington should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball, but they need to have more variety than being so constantly focused on Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. Doctson has an opportunity this week against a fairly week set of corners to use his talents, get open, and start giving Alex Smith a reason to target him more often. This week more than others, the Redskins need their #1 receiver to start producing. Docston is on the injury report and did not practice Thursday, but this same guidance applies to a potential replacement, I assume Maurice Harris, but it could also be Michael Floyd. Whether Doctson or his replacement, the Redskins passing game needs variety, and they have a vulnerable opponent this week to do it against.
Alvin Kamara vs Zach Brown
Like Kerrigan, Zach Brown’s impact this year has been fairly subdued so far, but with Kamara on the other side of the ball, Brown needs to star. He’s probably the fastest linebacker in the NFL, and his specialty is weakside pursuit in space, which a perfect skillset when facing a running back whose specialty is operating in space. Watch for Brown to play a critical role in Washington’s run defense and their defensive against the screen pass this week.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Saints |
| S T. Apke, hamstring; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; Sat: DNP; game: O | WR T. Ginn, knee; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; Sat: DNP; game: O |
| WR J. Docston, heel; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; Sat: DNP; game: Q | G A. Peat, ankle; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP |
| G S. Lauvao, calf; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; Sat: DNP; game: O | T. Armstead, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP |
| CB J. Norman, hamstring; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: FP | WR C. Meredith,, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: LP |
| RB A. Peterson, ankle; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: FP | RB A. Kamara, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: LP |
| WR P. Richardson, Jr., shoulder; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: FP | LB M. Te’o, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: LP; game: Q |
| G B. Scherff, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: FP | C C. Tom, knee; Thurs: not listed; Fri: LP; Sat: DNP; game Q |
| T T. Williams, knee; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; Sat: FP; game: Q | DE T. Hendrickson, illness; Thurs: not listed; Fri: LP; Sat: LP; game: Q |
| LB Z. Brown, oblique; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP | |
| LB R. Anderson, hamstring; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP | |
| T M. Moses, knee; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP | |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; Sat: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
First and foremost, please understand that the Redskins rankings for the accumulating stats like total points and yards are essentially worthless this week since only the Redskins and the Carolina Panthers have had their bye week. So, ignoring those stats, what the numbers show is a grind it out, ball control team that runs and has a short passing game. Sound familiar? Check these points out: #2 overall in average time of possession, 99 rushes, which is still 16th in the NFL despite having only played 3 games, leading receivers being a running back and a tight end, mediocre in the red zone (ranked 19th); average yards per play (16th) and yards per game rankings (14th). This tells me that the 2018 Redskins have been exactly what we think we’ve seen on gameday. The offensive numbers definitely confirm the obvious, which is that this team has thusfar been a running, short pass team; in other words, for the most part, the opposite of explosive. This week, the Redskins will likely need to be a bit more creative and explosive this week to match the Saints.
The same caveat applies to the defensive accumulating rankings – their value is extremely limited this week. The “1” rankings across the board are not an accurate representative of the performance of this defense, really. Some stats do bear out the success this group has had so far: third in both yards per play and yards per game, second in passing yards per attempt, bur 24th in rushing yards per attempt at 4.5 yards per carry on only 60 total rushing attempts (compare that to the 99 rushing attempts posted by the offense). The eyeball test should have told you, if you’re being honest and not a blind homer, that teams have had some success rushing against Washington, but just haven’t been able to run very much due to the nature of the games – the Cardinals and the Packers were both behind and trying to play catchup in the second half of those games. This week, the Redskins face a New Orleans team that has significant talent on the ground in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, who will play his first game of the year after returning from his PED suspension. We’ll see how the Redskins defensive numbers hold up after facing a powerhouse offense like the Saints.
Record: 2 – 1 (1st) (Away: 0 – 1; NFC: 2 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 595 – 582 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 30 (points) (trend -3) / 28 (total yards) (trend -16) / 14 (yards per game) (trend -2) / 16 (yards per play) (trend +3) / 28 (passing yards) (trend -14) / 9 (passing yards per att.) (trend +9) / 18 (rushing yards) (trend -11) / 16 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +3) |
| Points for | 64 |
| Yards per game | 383.0 |
| Passing
|
96 att (31st); 66 comp; 68.8% comp per. (9th); 8.0 Y/A; 736 net yds; 4 TD; 1 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (96 att, 767 yds (24th), 68.8% comp perc., 4 TDs / 1 Int, 102.2 QB rating (9th) |
| Receiving leader | Thompson (155 yds, 23 targets (27th), 20 rec (23rd), 1 TD, 7.8 Y/C); Reed (168 yds (27th), 20 targets, 14 rec, 1 TD, 12.0 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 99 att (16th); 413 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 137.7 Y/G (5th); 3 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (56 att, 236 yds (12th), 3 TD, 4.2 Y/A (18th), long 41) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 6 / 3_ |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 33:31 / 2 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 41.0% / 14 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 54.55% / 19 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 1 (points) (trend +1) / 1 (total yards) (trend even) / 3 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -2) / 3 (yards per play) (even) / 1 (passing yards) (trend even) / 2 (passing yards per att.) (even) / 3 (rushing yards) (trend +7) / 23 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -4) |
| Points against | 44 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 278.0 |
| Opponent’s passing | 110 att (3rd); 68 comp; 61.8% comp perc. (7th); 5.4 Y/A; 562 net yds; 4 TDs; QB Rating 77.0 (3rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 60 att (1st); 272 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 2 TD; 90.7 Y/G (7th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 7 /28 / Ioannidis (3.0) |
| Tackles leader | Dunbar (15) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 3 /13 / Swearinger (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.11% / 20 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 71.43% / 24 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 14.6 Y/R (32nd) (trend -4), 5 returns, long 24 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.8 Y/R (17th) (trend +3), 4 returns, long 12 yards (29th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.0 Y/R (13th) (trend -5), 2 return, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 12.2 Y/R (26th) (trend +3), 6 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 43.1 Y/P (24th) (trend +5) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 3 / 5 / +2/ 7
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 22 / 6
Saints:
It’s no secret that the New Orleans Saints have traditionally had one of the most explosive offenses in the game, and this year is no exception. They are scoring at a ferocious clip (3rd in points) and putting up big yardage (ranked 4th). The somewhat poor third down conversion rate (39.6%, ranked 20th), mediocre time of possession, and high yards per play ranking should tell you that this is a big play offense; not exactly a revelation, but it meets the eye test – we saw Kamara and others have big gains just last week against the Giants. Getting Ingram back means a statistical wildcard of sorts for the Saints, simply because we don’t know how many carries he will get or the ultimate run/pass balance. There’s no doubt that this is a tall order for the Redskins defense, and represents their biggest test yet on their road to respectability.
Defensively, the 2018 Saints have been bad in almost every area except 1. Note that New Orleans is ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry, at just 3.2 yards per carry. Unexpected, to say the least, and that includes a game against Giants wunderkind Saquon Barkley, who gained 44 yards on 10 carries against the Saints last week. In almost every other area, though: terrible. The Saints are vulnerable against the pass (last in the NFL in passing yards per attempt) and bad both on third downs (28th) and in the red zone (26th). This is a team the Redskins might not be able to run a ton against, although Adrian Peterson in particular will be motivated to put up big numbers on Monday, but the nonetheless the Redskins can score points against this team. The question is whether it will be enough.
Record: 3 – 1 (1st) (Home: 1 – 1; NFC: 2 – 1)
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
3 (points) / 4 (total yards) / 4 (yards per game) / 6 (yards per play) / 7 (passing yards) / 9 (passing yards per att.) / 17 (rushing yards) / 10 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 137 |
| Yards per game | 418.2 |
| Passing | 163 att (9th); 123 comp; 75.5% comp per. (1st); 8.0 Y/A; 1255 net yds; 8 TDs; 0 Int |
| Passing leader | Brees (161 att, 1295 yds (7th), 75.8% comp per., 8 TDs / 0 Int, 115.3 QB rating (3rd)) |
| Reception leader | Thomas (455 yds (4th), 44 targets (9th), 42 rec (1st), 3 TD, 10.6 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 95 att (20th); 418 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 104.5 Y/G (18th); 7 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Kamara (56 att (9th), 275 yds (8th), 5 TDs, 4.9 Y/A (10th), long 49 yds); receiving: 47 targets, 35 rec, 336 yds, 1 TD |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 6 / 3 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:33 / 13 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.6% / 20 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 61.9% / 10 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 29 (points) / 24 (total yards) / 24 (yards per game surrendered) / 29 (yards per play) / 30 (passing yards) / 32 (passing yards per att.) / 4 (rushing yards) / 1 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 121 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 390.5 |
| Opponent’s passing | 134 att (11th); 100 comp; 74.6% comp per. (31st); 9.6 Y/A; 1244 net yds; 11 TD; QB Rating 128.7 (31st) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 98 att (18th); 318 yds; 3.2 Y/A; 3 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 9 / 20 / Jordan (4.0) |
| Tackles leader | Davis (23) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 1 / 27 / Williams (1) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 45.65% / 28 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 75.0% / 26 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 21.9 Y/R (16th), 9 returns, long 47 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 3.9 Y/R (31st), 8 returns, long 10 yards (30th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 22.6 Y/R (17th), 11 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 5.2 Y/R (6th), 6 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 48.6 Y/P (4th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 4 / 3 / -1 / 17
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 28 / 14
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com
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