Meeting the Enemy – Eagles Edition

July 11, 2018

by Steve Thomas

Since we’re mired in the heart of the NFL’s version of the Bermuda Triangle right now, where sports writers enter but never emerge with news, it seems like the appropriate time to start previewing the 2018 versions of the Redskins’ division rivals.  Hat tip to our own Alex Zeese for the suggestion.  After all, if things break right, the NFC East has the possibility of being one of the most competitive battles in recent memory.  Let’s start with the Philadelphia Eagles.

2017 recap

13 – 3, 1st place, Super Bowl champions

The Philadelphia Eagles finally won the Super Bowl.  The fact that the City of Philadelphia – a miserable abode inhabited by a group of sports fans who are as unworthy of good things as one will ever find in our corner of the world – was finally able to celebrate such an achievement is a sickening, bile-inducing thing for me to write, but unfortunately, we can’t change the past.

The Eagles, led by second year quarterback Carson Wentz, started the year by going 3 – 1 in the first quarter of the season, defeating the Redskins and Chargers on the road and the Giants at home, with their only loss coming against the Chiefs in Kansas City in week 2.  The Eagles were able to go undefeated in the second quarter, defeating the Cardinals, Redskins, and 49ers at home and the Panthers on the road.  They saw continued success in the third quarter of the season, with victories over the Broncos and Bears on the road, and the Cowboys in Dallas, with their only loss coming against the Seahawks in Seattle.  The domination continued in the final quarter of the regular season, with wins over Rams and Giants on the road, and the Raiders at home.  The Eagles dropped the final regular season game of the year to Dallas at home.

Philadelphia was the NFC’s #1 seed in the playoffs and had home field advantage as a result.  They defeated the Falcons by a score of 15 – 10 in the divisional round and the Vikings 38 – 7 in the NFC Championship game.  The Eagles then defeated Tom Terrific and his merry band of Patriots 41 – 33 in Super Bowl LII.  You watched it, so let’s not relive the NFL’s version of armageddon any further.

The major event of the season for the Eagles was the injury to quarterback Carson Wentz, who tore the ACL in his left knee against the Rams in week 14.  Former starter turned maligned backup Nick Foles came in and played the rest of the season, including the playoffs, surprisingly dragging the Eagles and their hellion fan base all the way through the big game.

The numbers

The 2018 Eagles offense was ranked 3rd in the NFL in points scored, 7th in total yards, 9th in yards per play, 13th in passing yards,  14th in passing yards per attempt, 3rd in rushing yards, 3rd in rushing yards per attempt, and 16th in sacks surrendered.

On defense, the Eagles were ranked 4th in the NFL in points surrendered, 4th in total yards, 17th in total passing yards, 13th in completion percentage, 3rd in yards per attempt, 1st in total rushing yards, 6th in rushing yards per attempt, and 15th in sacks.

One small bad note was that Philadelphia was 26th in total penalties.

Wentz, 6’5”, 237 pounds, who was the 2nd overall pick out of North Dakota St. in 2016, had been putting up solid numbers all year until his injury, including completion of 265 of 440 passes for a 60.23% completion percentage, 3296 yards, 33 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions.  Wentz also had 64 rushes for another 299 yards.  For his part, Foles had 3 regular season starts and went 57 for 101 for 537 yards, 56.4% completion percentage, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

LeGarrette Blount was the leading rusher, with 173 carries for 766 yards, for 4.4 yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns.  Corey Clement and Jay Ajayi each also made significant contributions as well.  Clement had 74 carries for 321 yards, 4.3 yards per attempt and 4 touchdowns.  Ajayi was somewhat inexplicably traded to the Eagles by the Dolphins on October 31, and he added another 408 yards on 70 carries for 5.8 yards per carry and 1 touchdown in just 7 games.

Tight end Zach Ertz was Philadelphia’s leading receiver, with 824 yards on 74 receptions, for 11.1 yards per reception and 8 touchdowns.  Nelson Agholor was next with 62 receptions, 768 yards, 12.4 yards per receptions, and 8 touchdowns, followed by Alshon Jeffrey, who posted 57 receptions for 789 yards, 13.8 yards per receptions, and 9 touchdowns.

On defense, linebacker Nigel Bradham led the team with 61 tackles.  Defensive end Brandon Graham was the team leader in sacks with 9.5 on the season.  Cornerback Patrick Robinson had a team-leading 4 interceptions for the season.

2018 offseason

Philadelphia had several high-profile moves this offseason, most prominently including a trade for outspoken former Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett.  They also made a trade with the Panthers for corner Darryl Worley.

In free agency, the Eagles signed a noted Redskins killer, running back Matt Jones, to a 2 year contract.  They also signed linebacker Corey Nelson, formerly of the Broncos, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Mike Wallace from the Ravens, linebacker Pail Worrilow, and tight end Richard Rodgers all to one year deals.

As far as their own free agents, Philadelphia’s biggest move was to re-sign Bradham to a five year, $40M contract.  They also brought running back Darren Sproles and linebacker Najee Goode back on a one year deals.

Tight end Trey Burton signed with the Bears on a four year contract.  Robinson signed with the Saints for four years.  Blount left for the Lions on a one year deal.  Defensive end Beau Allen signed a 3 year contract with Tampa Bay.  Running back Kenjon Barner signed with the Panthers for one year.  Kicker Caleb Sturgis signed with the Panthers for 2 years.  Safety Jaylen Watkins signed a 2 year deal with the Chargers.  The Eagles released tight end Brent Celek.

Safety Corey Graham, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, defensive end Bryan Braman, and tackle Will Beatty from the 2017 roster remain unsigned.

These are the Eagles’ 2018 draft picks:

Rd 2 – Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota St

Rd 4 – Avonte Maddox, CB, Pittsburgh

Rd 4 – Josh Sweat, DE, Florida St.

Rd 6 – Matt Pryor, OT, TCU

Rd 7 – Jordan Mailata, OT, Australia

I’m not going to do a long analysis of these picks here, but none stand out as being particularly noteworthy.  Mailata is a 6’8”, 346 pound former rugby player who gained some notoriety during the draft for his amazing game film from Australia when he was shown running the ball and running over the opposing team in the process.

2018 projection

The most important question for this team heading into the 2018 season is the health of Carson Wentz.  His ACL tear occurred on December 10, so he may not be available at the start of the season.  The latest reports indicate that Wentz is “shockingly ahead of schedule” in his rehab[1].  In other words, he’s all in for week one.  I swear we’ve heard that somewhere before.  We’ll see – the point is that it’s possible that Foles, who the Eagles wisely refused to trade this offseason, may begin the season as the starter.  It’s still too early to know.

Another significant issue for the Eagles is at running back.  With the Eagles allowing Blount to leave in free agency, the team apparently intends to rely on Ajayi (5.8 yards per carry during his time with the Eagles) to be the principal starter.  Ajayi’s contract expires after this season, though, so they will need to make a decision at that point.  At 35 years old, Sproles is downright ancient by NFL running back standards and will probably be gone after this season.  None of the remaining backs on the roster – Sproles, Clement, Donnel Pumphrey, Wendell Smallwood, undrafted free agent rookie Josh Adams, and the apostle Matt Jones – appear to the be type who can be expected to carry the load as a franchise back.  The Eagles actually gave Adams, who is from Notre Dame and averaged 6.9 yards per carry last year, a $25,000 signing bonus and guaranteed $55,000 of his 3 year contract.  That is extremely unusual for an undrafted free agent, so they must have plans for him.  It’s an open question that bears watching.

With the addition of Michael Bennett to an already stacked front 7 that includes the likes of Cox, Graham, Bradham, and others, this group figures to be downright fearsome.  This is not a defense that appears poised for a post-Super Bowl downturn.

The scheduling gods blessed the Eagles in the first quarter of the season.  Their week one opponent is the Atlanta Falcons as the NFL’s opening night matchup, which is a tough game, but the game is in Philadelphia.  That is followed by Tampa Bay on the road, then the Colts at home, and the Titans in Tennessee.  The Eagles should go at least 3 – 1, if not 4 – 0, in these games.

The second quarter is much tougher, thanks to matchups against Vikings at home in week 5, the Panthers at home in week 7, and the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Sunday night in week 8, plus a matchup against the division rival Giants in New on Thursday night in week 6.  The Eagles are fortunate to face both the Vikings and the Panthers at home, but nonetheless, this is a tough stretch.   I don’t think it’s realistic to expect any team to go 4 – 0 in these games, so the most likely result is probably either 2 – 2 or 3 – 1 in quarter two.

This puts the Eagles at between 7 – 1 and 5 – 3 at the halfway mark.  Philadelphia’s bye week is in week 9.

The Eagles’ third quarter slate of games is heavy on division rivals, with the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all coming to Philadelphia in weeks 10, 12, and 13, respectively, plus a road game against the Saints in week 11.  The Cowboys game is a Sunday night game, and the Redskins matchup is on Monday Night Football.  It isn’t realistic to expect any team to sweep all of its division games, even for a Super Bowl champion, so at least one loss in those three games (hopefully against the Redskins) is likely.  Plus, the Saints in New Orleans is always tough, so either 3 – 1 or 2 – 2 is once again likely.

The fourth quarter of games for the Eagles include two division games against Dallas in week 14 and the Redskins in week 17, both on the road, plus the Rams in Los Angeles in week 15 and the Texans at home in week 16.  It’s always tough to predict what sort of team the Texans may be, because they seem to alternate between being a quality performer and terrible depending on their injury situation, but once again, this is a tough group of games.  Three of four matchups on the road is difficult for anyone, even a Super Bowl champion, and in particular when two unpredictable division games are involved.  If my predictions here are right, at the start of the fourth quarter of the season, the Eagles will be between 10 – 2 at best and 7 – 5 at worst.  Either way, the Eagles should be in the heart of the chase for playoff chase.  If they go into the final game with the #1 seed locked up, it’s possible that they may play their second team against the Redskins, which may lead to a potential loss.  The Rams on the road is also a tough game, particularly if the Rams are also in the middle of a playoff run.  Therefore, I expect this quarter to be a 2 – 2 result for the Eagles, with 3 – 1 a best case scenario.

All in all, this means that the Eagles are heading for a season that will most likely finish with a record of 13 – 3 at best and 9 – 7 at worst.  I tend to think that they will trend more towards the higher end of that range, not the lower end, unfortunately.  It pains my heart to predict that the city of Philadelphia and the awful humans who reside there will derive any pleasure from their sports viewing endeavors, but that’s what we’re looking it this year, folks.

 

 

[1] https://www.pennlive.com/philadelphiaeagles/index.ssf/2018/06/philadelphia_eagles_qb_carson_10.html