Game Preview, Week 11: Saints at Redskins
by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte
Whelp. Yuck. I’m sad. Last week’s game against the Vikings was fairly equivalent to stepping in a cow patty. Thankfully, though, the Redskins get to move on to once again try to get their fifth win of the season against….the first place Saints in New Orleans. Somebody go find that sad trombone sound and insert it here. You see, boys and girls, for those of you who aren’t aware, these aren’t the Saints of yesteryear, that one dimensional team that consisted of Drew Brees doing everything on offense and a gawd awful, historically bad defense. Nope – these Saints not only are balanced, they are actually one of the very best running teams in the NFL, so much so that the Brees-led passing game is playing a something of a supporting role now. Not only that, but their formerly atrocious defense has actually surrendered the 4th-least amount of points in the league. Yeah. Can’t lie; this game looks bad. Can the Redskins win? Of course – that old cliche, “on any given Sunday”, applies here, and the Redskins have shown a great deal of backbone at times this year, most recently against the Seahawks. The chips are certainly stacked against them this week, though. Our game preview is below.
Game time & location: Sunday, November 19, 2017, 1:00 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA; Gates open 10 a.m. ET; tailgating is not permitted on stadium property or in stadium parking lots
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews
DC-area radio: ESPN 980
Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html
Saints radio network: http://www.neworleanssaints.com/news-and-events/saints-radio.html
Satellite radio: XM: 83 (Saints broad.) Sirius: 113 (Redskins broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml
Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html
Saints roster: http://www.neworleanssaints.com/team/roster.html
Saints depth chart: http://www.neworleanssaints.com/team/depth-chart.html
All-time head-to-head record vs Saints: 17 – 8 (last 10: 6 – 4)
Last meeting: W, November 15, 2015, 47 – 14
Early odds: Saints, -7.5
SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE GAME
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SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUPS
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SEAN CUTS TO THE CHASE
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OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Saints |
| WR J. Crowder, NIR; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP | LB A.J. Klein, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| TE J. Reed, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | T T. Armstead, rest; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| T T. Williams, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | CB D. Harris, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| LB Z. Brown, achilles; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | S K. Vaccaro, groin; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| T T.J. Clemmings, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: put on IR | DE C. Jordan, back; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP |
| WR R. Grant, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | LB G. Hodges, toe; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: DNP |
| S D. Hall, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| DE M. Ioannidis, hand; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| DE A. Lanier, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| G S. Lauvao, stinger; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| C S. Long, knee/knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | |
| S M. Nicholson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| T T. Nsekhe, core muscle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| TE N. Paul, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| WR B. Quick, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| G B. Scherff, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP ; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| CB B. Breeland, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| S D. Everett, eye; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| T M. Moses, ankle/ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR T. Pryor Sr., ankle; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | |
| C C. Roullier, shoulder; Wed: not listed; Thurs; FP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
The Redskins’ offense has maintained its more or less middle of the pack rankings depsite the collapsing running game. As has been the case nearly all season, Chris Thompson remains both the leading receiver and running back. Interestingly, the Redskins are ranked 5th in passing yards per attempt despite a decided lack of catches by wide receivers. This ranking is no doubt due in part to Vernon Davis’ outstanding season. One area that the Redskins are markedly better in compared to the 2016 team is red zone efficiency – Washington has converted 55.17% of its red zone trips into touchdowns, good for 12th in the NFL. This doesn’t sound great, but compared to last year, it’s practically a miracle. On the quarterback front, Kirk Cousins’ rating took a fairly significant plunge after the Vikings game, down to 98.6. This is still good, and Kirk’s numbers are still quality, for the most part, although they are slightly off his 2016 campaign.
The Redskins’ defensive rankings took a big hit across the board as a result of the Minnesota game; in fact, the Redskins are ranked just 26th in the most important stat, points surrendered. Run defense continues to be mediocre (13th in yards, 17th in yards per attempt), which as I said last week is a massive improvement over the mess that was 2016. The defensive continues to be bad in both third down conversion defense and red zone defense, being ranked 26th and 28th, respectively. With the Redskins visiting the high-powered Saints this week, predicting yet another statistical plunge of the defensive numbers is a fairly safe bet.
The Redskins continue to be awful at punt returns and are now the second-worst team in the NFL as measured by yards per punt return.
Record 4 – 5 (3rd) (Away: 2 – 2; NFC: 3 – 4)
All-time franchise record: 590 – 577 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 12 (points) (trend +4) / 15 (total yards) (trend +3) / 13 (yards per game) (trend +1) / 11 (yards per play) (trend +3) / 9 (passing yards) (trend +5) / 5 (passing yards per att.) (trend even) / 24 (rushing yards) (trend -2) / 22 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +1) |
| Points for | 207 |
| Yards per game | 348.7 |
| Passing
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313 att (15th); 208 comp; 66.5% comp per. (6th); 7.9 Y/A; 2268 net yds; 14 TD; 5 Int |
| Passing leader | Cousins (313 att, 2474 yds (3rd), 66.5% comp perc., 14 TDs / 5 Int (42nd), 98.6 QB rating (8th) |
| Receiving leader | Thompson (494 yds (32nd), 53 targets (52nd), 38 rec (38th), 3 TDs, 13.0 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 232 att (19th); 870 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 96.7 Y/G (23rd); 8 TD |
| Rushing leader | Thompson (60 att, 277 yds (41st), 2 TDs, 4.6 Y/A, long 61); Kelley (62 att (45th), 194 yds, 3 TDs, 3.1 YPC |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 23 / 16 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:37 / 14 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 37.1% / 21 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 55.17% / 12 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 26 (points) (trend -5) / 20 (total yards) (trend -4) / 20 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -2) / 21 (yards per play) (trend -1) / 17 (passing yards) (trend -1) / 21 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 13 (rushing yards) (trend +3) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +2) |
| Points against | 232 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 344.6 |
| Opponent’s passing | 300 att (12th); 186 comp; 62.0% comp perc. (25th); 7.5 Y/A; 2115 net yds; 16 TDs; QB Rating 89.0 (17th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 241 att (17th); 986 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 7 TD; 109.6 Y/G (13th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 22/ 16 / Kerrigan (6.0) |
| Tackles leader | Brown (62) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 10 / 7 / Fuller (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.86% / 26 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 65.52% / 28 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 20.8 Y/R (21st), 15 returns, long 29 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.0 Y/R (31st), 15 returns, long 18 yards (27th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 19.6 Y/R (6th), 13 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.0 Y/R (22nd), 18 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 44.4 Y/P (23rd) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 15 / 14 / -1 / 19
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 47 / 2
Saints:
The Saints offense is fearsome. This is one of the top scoring offenses in football (ranked 3rd). It is ranked 2nd in total yards gained, 5th in passing yards and (surprisingly based on past history) 3rd in rushing yards. The rushing game isn’t just quantity over quality, either – the Saints average 4.6 yards per attempt (4th), with feature back Mark Ingram rushing at 4.7 yards per carry. Drew Brees remains an ageless wonder, completing 71.7% of his passes and posting a 104.0 quarterback rating, with only 8 sacks in the season (1st). Their top receiver, Michael Thomas, is 8th in receiving yards, 6th in targets, and 4th in receptions. From a statistical perspective, this is an offense without significant weaknesses.
The Saints’ defense is dramatically better than some of the defenses this franchise has trotted out in recent times. In fact, they are 4th in points surrendered, with only 165 points given up so far this season. The statistical weakness on this defense is in the run game, in which the Saints have given up 4.7 yards per carry, which is just 29th in the NFL. Unfortunately, this weakness doesn’t match up well with Redskins offense, which has been bad in the run game essentially all season. The Saints are a high-sacking team, with 25 thusfar on the year, good for 10th place.
The biggest weakness on this team appears to be special teams – the Saints are ranked low in kick and punt returns and kick and punt return defense.
Record: 7 – 2 (1st) (Home: 3 – 1; NFC: 5 – 1)
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 3 (points) / 2 (total yards) / 2 (yards per game) / 1 (yards per play) / 5 (passing yards) / 4 (passing yards per att.) / 3 (rushing yards) / 4 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 268 |
| Yards per game | 402.4 |
| Passing | 300 att (21st); 215 comp; 71.7% comp per. (1st); 8.0 Y/A; 2342 net yds; 13 TDs; 4 Int |
| Passing leader | Brees (300 att, 2398 yds (6th), 71.7% comp per., 13 TDs / 4 Int (37th), 104.0 QB rating (4th)) |
| Reception leader | Thomas (662 yds (8th), 83 targets (6th), 59 rec (4th), 2 TD, 11.2 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 276 att (4th); 1280 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 142.2 Y/G (3rd); 14 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Ingram (144 att, 672 yds (6th), 7 TDs, 4.7 Y/A (9th), long 51 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 8 / 1 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 32:36 / 3 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 41.3% / 9 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 62.5% / 6 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 4 (points) / 8 (total yards) / 8 (yards per game surrendered) / 18 (yards per play) / 6 (passing yards) / 8 (passing yards per att.) / 16 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 165 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 312.3 |
| Opponent’s passing | 297 att (11th); 178 comp; 59.9% comp per. 8th); 6.6 Y/A; 1813 net yds; 10 TD; QB Rating 78.0 (7th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 212 att (3rd); 998 yds; 4.7 Y/A; 5 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 25 / 10 / Jordan (7.0) |
| Tackles leader | Lattimore (31) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 10 / 7 / Vaccaro (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.37% / 24 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 50.0% / 10 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.4 Y/R (28th), 18 returns, long 39 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.2 Y/R (30th), 20 returns, long 17 yards (28th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 25.9 Y/R (28th), 15 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 11.4 Y/R (27th), 12 returns, 1 TDs |
| Punting | 48.1 Y/P (6th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 10 / 13 / +3 / 11
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 55 / 7
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com