The Two November Streaks
December 15, 2021
by Paul Francis
[EDITOR’S NOTE: Please welcome our new writer, Paul Francis. Paul is going to focus on opinion pieces here at The Hog Sty. This is his first column. Paul is a talented guy with lots to say, so I urge you to check out his work – Steve Thomas]
No, we aren’t talking about Alex Zeese’s undies after gorging Thanksgiving leftovers.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one
After an underwhelming, disappointing, and sometimes infuriating start to the Washington football season, we had two measly wins to our name. Enter November. Something interesting begins to happen: more wins. Not just one or two. But four…count ‘em FOUR wins in a row.
That’s a streak. That’s momentum. That’s Washington putting itself in position to do something meaningful late in the season. That’s a reason to halt the usual tabulations about draft position with a quarter of the season left to play, and instead tabulate the odds of making the playoffs. It’s at least permission to keep wearing your Washington gear around town alongside the Patriots and Packers fans who so casually and arrogantly do the same.
Back-to-back years of 4-game win streaks in November-December that keep us interested! Brethren, this is something that has not taken place in these lands for a life-age. (Sorry, the family watches the Extended Versions of Lord of the Rings around the holidays, and after hours of Middle Earth-speak it creeps into my everyday internal dialogue.)
OK, we actually had a 4-game win streak in 2016 with a team led by “would-be” Pro Bowlers Kirk Cousins, Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Scherff, and Jordan Reed. Since then, three of those fellas have taken their talents elsewhere, and one of them (probably) will next year. The last one still hasn’t exited the concussion protocol and may think we are still in 2016. We’ve since changed names, front offices, coaching staffs, swapped cheerleaders for a dance-team, parried more lawsuits and investigations than I care to count, and effectively ended the coaching careers of both Grudens. Given everything that’s transpired in the last 5 years for our organization, it certainly feels like a lifetime ago, and that win streak was early season not late season.
But presently, we are 2 out of 2 seasons in the Ron Rivera Era where Washington has started with a sputter, then found “something”. What that “something” is, and what it can become is intriguing. Are we becoming a good team and solidifying an identity in the early years of a rebuild? Are we simply finding a fortunate sweet spot in the schedule against teams that may have overlooked us? Or is it some of both? What can we take from these 2 win streaks by comparison?
Similarities
Apart from what’s already been stated in that both of these 4-game win streaks happened around November-December for teams that have 2 wins, there are some other interesting similarities between them.
In both seasons, 3 of the 4 opponents were been equal-to-lesser teams compared to Washington, and one of the wins was an outstanding upset. In 2020, we beat Bengals, Cowboys and 49ers teams that were playing mediocre football and/or reeling from injuries to key players. But even beating equal-to-lesser teams consistently is a big deal for Washington, as it is the first step in becoming “good”. The high point of last year’s streak was going into Pittsburgh and beating the then-undefeated Steelers, which in hindsight appears to mark the beginning of the end of the Roethlisberger Dynasty. That’s something I’m all too delighted to stuff in the face of ubiquitous annoying Steelers fans. In 2021, we’ve similarly beaten Panthers, Seahawks and Raiders teams that were stuck in neutral and/or dealing with injuries to key players. But the crown jewel of the streak was where it started, avenging last season’s playoff loss and sucker punching the World Champion Buccaneers (And sending Tawmmy into a whiny postgame presser tiff as a cherry on top).
The primary key to both streaks was the fact that each team found its defensive identity. Apart from the outlier 41-point Thanksgiving feast against the Cowboys last year, in the 7 other games comprising the win streaks Washington averaged 22 points while holding opponents to 16. Both teams’ style of play on offense has been ball control and sustaining long drives, limiting both mistakes and opponents’ opportunities.
Also, both streaks sadly ended on a similar note at home. In 2020, we lost to a 9-4 Seahawks team that would eventually win their division. Although the final score was 20-15, it was 20-3 heading into the 4th quarter when Washington added garbage time scores to make the game seem more interesting than it was. This past Sunday, Washington’s win streak came to an end against “Them”, who were 8-4 and poised to win the division. The 27-20 final score isn’t an accurate representation of the game, as it was over early, until some 4th quarter breaks went our way. But anyone watching the game would know that we weren’t very good, and they were better.
Differences
There are a couple of differences between the win streaks worth noting.
First big difference is the quarterback. In 2020, it felt like Washington was putting together a win streak despite the play from the QB position. The nicest thing that can be said about 2020 Alex Smith on the field is that he wasn’t turning the ball over, while completing dozens of 5 yard checkdowns to J.D. McKissic punctuated by the occasional “big-play” of completing an 8 yarder to Logan Thomas. At the end of the year, the numbers told us that Alex Smith was barely more productive than Dwayne Haskins.
The 2021 QB position has been engrossing, as the arc of Taylor Heinicke’s narrative has grown. He’s not Aaron Rodgers hanging 350-yard/3-TD games on opponents as a regular day’s work, but there is also no doubt that Washington won games because of him. His knack for extending plays, improvising on the fly to move chains, literally flying to move pylons, or suddenly dropping a deep bomb into the waiting hands of a WR is very unlike Alex Smith. We’ve not just been excited for the team, we’ve been excited for gameday Heinicke even if we know deep down he’s not a viable long term answer for us.
One of the bigger differences between the streaks has been the character of the defense. The 2020 streak was marked by the arrival of Chase Young as the next big thing. Our Generational Talent really began to impact games, putting a spotlight on him and his partner-in-sacks Montez Sweat. With visions of sugar plums and the crushed bones of QBs dancing in our heads, the 2020 win streak seemed to mark the arrival of an early Christmas gift to Washington – dominant bookend pass-rushers to build around for the next decade. Now in 2021, the irony is that the defense seemed to find its identity once those 2 players hit IR. Washington’s defensive identity is built around the less sexy but more consistent workmanlike leadership of Jonathan Allen, Cole Holcomb and Kamren Curl. Truth is those guys have always balled out, but they just hadn’t gotten the same recognition. Where 2020 defense was about star power, the 2021 defense has been about team power.
So what?
Where does all of this leave us? Heck if I know – that’s for us all to opine about in the scrum of the comments section. I’m just setting the table with some observations, while doing all I can to focus on something other than what-just-happened this past Sunday at the hands of you-know-who.
But I’ll say this: It’s made football fun again. It’s really really really nice to be a Washington fan in November-December and converse about football that is happening on the field. And that’s a streak I’d like to keep intact for years to come.