Game Preview, Week 16: Broncos at Redskins
December 21, 2017
by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte
Let’s play a word association game. Ready? Okay, here we go. When I write “Redskins – Broncos”, give me the first word that pops into your head. I’ll wait. I would submit to you that the word should be “positivity” – not because there’s a shot at the playoffs (we all know there isn’t), but because finishing off this season with an 8 – 8 record and three straight wins has value and sets a good tone going into the offseason. So, everybody, enough with the loser talk, already. Please. Be a good fan and cheer on your 2017 Washington Redskins on Sunday. We’ll all have plenty of time to stew over draft choices and front office moves later. This week, the Redskins are favored by Vegas and have a solid chance to come away with the victory, despite a fearsome Denver defense. After all, the Broncos are going to be forced to start either Brock Osweiller or Paxton Lynch at quarterback. Surely Washington can overcome that offense. Here’s what we think:
Game time & location: Sunday, December 24, 2017,1:00 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Raljon, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
DC-area radio: ESPN 980
Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html
Broncos radio network: http://www.denverbroncos.com/multimedia/broadcast-partners/radio-affiliates.html
Satellite radio: XM: 229 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 121 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml
Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html
Broncos roster: http://www.denverbroncos.com/team/roster.html
Broncos depth chart: http://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart.html
All-time head-to-head record vs Broncos: 5 – 7 – 0 (last 5: 2 – 3)
Last meeting: L, October 27, 2013, 21 – 45
Early odds: Redskins, -3.5
SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE GAME
Play Disciplined Football
This isn’t the Redskins’ strong suit. A lack of execution has characterized this team since week 1. The Broncos went on an eight-game losing streak that only recently ended, so it would be easy to think they’re a terrible team. They’re not great a great team, but our 31st ranked offense will likely be struggle against their 1st overall ranked defense. Execution needs to happen, especially offensively, if we’re to have any chance at home this week.
Gameplan
It’s still unclear who’s going to be under center this weekend for Denver. Three guys have vied for the starting role since Peyton Manning retired; Trevor Siemian sustained a shoulder injury that landed him on IR this week, and Osweiler has filled in in that time. Paxton Lynch is still out there on their roster. They are all different styles of players, so the Redskins defense will need to stay on their toes this week and keep their eyes on Broncos news.
Stop the Run
They’re the 14th ranked rushing offense, but the difference between 14th and 9th place is less than 100 yards. CJ Anderson went ham for over 150 yards on 30 carries, and the Broncos only passed about 25 times all game. We’re ranked 28th against the run. That’s the kind of offense the Redskins tend to play dead against, so lets hope the guys up front can generate some pressure like they did last week.
Will the Real Cornerback Please Stand Up
Broncos quarterbacks have thrown 19 interceptions this year against 17 touchdowns. We should be able to get some takeaways this week to mirror last week’s. Again, this will likely result in Denver rushing hard against us and taking as much pressure as they can off their quarterback position, which our defense should be able to use to their advantage. We’ll need Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette, and Preston Smith to do what they can to create chaos up front.
Get a Grip in Coverage
While it’s true that the Broncos aren’t exactly scaring anyone through the air this year, that’s mostly a function of their uncertainty at quarterback and struggles on the offensive line. They certainly have targets, including Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders had been limping around with an ankle injury all season, so his abilities have been somewhat hampered, but it would be foolish to fall asleep on these guys knowing what they can do.
SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUPS
CJ Anderson vs. Redskins’ Front 7
He’s the 9th ranked RB in the league this year, and even though the Broncos are only playing for pride, he’s still firing on all cylinders. Watch out.
Demaryius Thomas vs. CBs and Safeties
Pretty self explanatory. If Paxton Lynch torches this team, Jay Gruden should be fired and a mannequin head in his image should be mounted on a pike outside Ashburn. Speaking of which…
Paxton Lynch (?) vs. Redskins’ Defense
Osweiler had a great time in relief for Siemian last week, but considering how their season is lost, a lot of money is on Lynch to start the last two weeks of the season. Folks in Denver want to know what they have in the kid. If he plays, it should prove easy to fluster him with consistent pressure off the edge.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Broncos |
| LB R. Anderson, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR E. Sanders, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB Z. Brown, achilles/toe/hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR C. Latimer, thigh: Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: Q |
| DL S. McGee, illness; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP | QB P. Lynch, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP; game : Q |
| T M. Moses, illness/ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | NT D. Peko Sr., NIR; Wed: not listed; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP |
| T T. Williams, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | |
| WR J. Crowder, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| CB K. Fuller, foot; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| WR M. Harris, back; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP ; Fri: DNP; game: Q | |
| DL T. McClain, toe; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | |
| CB B. Breeland, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR R. Grant, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| DL M. Ioannidis, hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP ; Fri: FP | |
| CB J. Norman, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| C C. Rouiller, hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| LB M. Spaight, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP ; Fri: FP | |
| RB Samaje Perine, groin; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | |
| RB LeShun Daniels, hand; Wed: not listed; Thurs: not listed; Fri: DNP; game: O |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
The Redskins offense, in a general sense, remains in roughly the same statistical space it’s been in for awhile now – mediocre scoring offense (18th), slightly above average passing team (14th in passing yards), terrible running team (26th in rushing yards, 28th in yards per attempt). The one area in which Washington continues to need significant improvement is in 3rd down conversions: the team is now ranked 29th in the NFL by that measure. At this point in the season, it takes a real outlier to dramatically shift league-wide rankings, and while the Cardinals game was a nice win, the Redskins’ offensive performance was nothing to write home about.
On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona’s gross incompetence did actually result in a small but noticeable uptick in statistical rankings in many areas – Washington now ranks 29th in points (up three spots from dead last), 20th in total yards, and 16th in passing yards. With the Denver Broncos (who have issues, shall we say) coming into town, week 16 should be yet another game that will help right the statistical wrongs that resulted from recent blowouts.
Record 6 – 8 (3rd) (Home: 4 – 3; NFC: 5 – 6)
All-time franchise record: 592 – 580 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 18 (points) (trend -1) / 18 (total yards) (trend -2) / 18 (yards per game) (trend -2) / 14 (yards per play) (trend even) / 14 (passing yards) (trend even) / 6 (passing yards per att.) (trend even) / 26 (rushing yards) (trend -1) / 28 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -6) |
| Points for | 305 |
| Yards per game | 329.7 |
| Passing
|
466 att (21st); 308 comp; 66.1% comp per. (6th); 7.8 Y/A; 3316 net yds; 24 TD; 9 Int |
| Passing leader | Cousins (440 att, 3636 yds (8th), 66.1% comp perc., 24 TDs / 9 Int, 98.8 QB rating (9th) |
| Receiving leader | Crowder (717 yds (34th), 92 targets (33rd), 59 rec (27th), 2 TD, 12.2 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 356 att (21st); 1300 yds; 3.7 Y/A; 92.9 Y/G (26th); 9 TD |
| Rushing leader | Perine (156 att, 547 yds (30th), 1 TD, 3.5 Y/A (38th), long 30) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 38 / 23 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 29:48 / 19 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 33.7% / 29 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 56.1% / 18 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 29 (points) (trend +3) / 20 (total yards) (trend +4) / 20 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +4) / 21 (yards per play) (trend +2) / 16 (passing yards) (trend +2) / 20 (passing yards per att.) (trend +5) / 28 (rushing yards) (trend -2) / 21 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +2) |
| Points against | 359 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 246.8 |
| Opponent’s passing | 465 att (11th); 274 comp; 58.9% comp perc. (4th); 7.2 Y/A; 3128 net yds; 22 TDs; QB Rating 84.6 (12th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 399 att (25th); 1727 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 11 TD; 123.4 Y/G (28th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 36 / 10 / Kerrigan (9.0) |
| Tackles leader | Brown (84) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 14 / 9 / Fuller (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 38.34% / 16 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.94% / 15 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 20.9 Y/R (17th),30 returns, long 35 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.2 Y/R (28th), 25 returns, long 18 yards (31st), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 19.2 Y/R (5th), 22 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 12.5 Y/R (32nd), 31 returns, 1 TD |
| Punting | 45.3 Y/P (14th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 22 / 19 / -3 / 20
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 82 / 5
Broncos:
At the risk of straying a bit from pure stats, which is supposed to be the primary focus of this paragraph, the principal problem with the Denver Broncos offense is that the quarterbacks on the roster are Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiller, and Paxton Lynch, one of whom being on IR and none of whom being good. A team with a top 15th-ish wideout in Demaryius Thomas and a top 10-ish running back in C.J. Anderson should be better than merely 24th in points scored. But they aren’t. Because those three guys are the quarterbacks. Oh yeah: the Broncos are atrocious in the red zone.
At first glance, the Broncos’ defensive rankings are a study in contradiction: 1st in total yards, 1st in yards per game, 2nd in passing yards, 4th in rushing yards, 2nd in opponent’s third down conversion rate, but only 20th in points scored. How could that be, you ask? Well, I have a pretty good guess: Denver is -15 in turnover ratio, good for 31st in the NFL, and ranked 29th in red zone defense. Therefore, you have a defense that teams can’t move against, but that is constantly put in tough positions thanks to the offense turning over the ball (28 total turnovers, including 19 interceptions) and therefore has given up too many points despite the gaudy numbers. The mission for the Redskins becomes clear: turnovers are a big key to this game.
Record: 5 – 9 (4th) (Away: 1 – 6; NFC: 1 – 2)
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 24 (points) / 20 (total yards) / 20 (yards per game) / 27 (yards per play) / 21 (passing yards) / 26 (passing yards per att.) / 14 (rushing yards) / 18 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 254 |
| Yards per game | 322.8 |
| Passing | 497 att (13th); 289 comp; 58.1% comp per. (29th); 6.5 Y/A; 2934 net yds; 17 TDs; 19 Int |
| Passing leader | Siemian (349 att, 2285 yds (27th), 59.0% comp per., 12 TDs / 14 Int, 73.3 QB rating (32nd)); Osweiler (134 att, 895 yds, 55.2% comp per., 5 TDs / 4 Int, 75.9 QB rating |
| Reception leader | Thomas (840 yds (21st), 126 targets (8th), 73 rec (13th), 4 TD, 11.5 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 398 att (9th); 1585 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 113.2 Y/G (14th); 7 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Anderson (211 att, 858 yds (9th), 2 TDs, 4.1 Y/A (18th), long 40 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 44 / 28 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 31:34 / 6 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 39.6% / 13 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 39.53% / 30 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 20 (points) / 1 (total yards) / 1 (yards per game surrendered) / 2 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 6 (passing yards per att.) / 4 (rushing yards) / 1 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 328 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 276.8 |
| Opponent’s passing | 418 att (1st); 253 comp; 60.5% comp per. (11th); 6.7 Y/A; 2642 net yds; 26 TD; QB Rating 93.2 (22nd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 372 att (15th); 1233 yds; 3.3 Y/A; 7 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 31 / 12 / Miller (10.0) |
| Tackles leader | Marshall (64) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 8 / 26 / Simmons, Stewart, Harris (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 30.81% / 2 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 64.71% / 29 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 21.9 Y/R (15th), 230 returns, long 61 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 8.8 Y/R (14th), 37 returns, long 44 yards (15th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 25.3 Y/R (30th), 16 returns, 1 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.6 Y/R (22nd), 27 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 44.7 Y/P (19th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 28 / 13 / -15 / 31
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 106 / 27
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com