Expectations on the Eve of the 2017 Season

September 9, 2017

by Steve Thomas

My very first column for The Hog Sty, during the 2015 offseason (read it here: http://www.thehogsty.com/2015/03/12/hope-springs-eternal/), dealt with expectations.  I’ve since written other “expectations” columns at various points, all primarily because I want to boost my own hopes for what’s about to follow.  The unfortunate reality is that I keep having to write these questioning, soul-searching columns because the Redskins can’t get their act together with any sort of consistency, whether as a result of ownership, management, coaching, or a combination of all three.  They certainly go through stretches that make it appear as though the light is at the end of the tunnel for this franchise, but the sad truth is that the team has been lurching from one crisis to another since long before The Hog Sty existed and has continued to do so in 2017.  This offseason certainly didn’t inspire confidence in me or anyone else that consistent winning is on the horizon.  On the good side, the team extended the contract of head coach Jay Gruden, who does have some weaknesses as a coach but has earned another few years here.  The Redskins also saw a prized top draft pick fall essentially into their laps in the form of Alabama defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.  But the rest of the offseason?  Yuck.  From the team’s colossal and inexplicable failure to make a serious effort to re-sign quarterback Kirk Cousins to a multi-year deal, to the comically poor, distasteful, and classless handling of the firing of former general manager Scot McCloughan (while kicking him in the family jewels on his way out the door), to letting both of the top wide receivers from the past several seasons leave in free agency without even an attempt at keeping either of them, it hasn’t been pretty, folks, and that’s not even an all-inclusive list.  All of this craziness seems to have resulted in a general downturn in the excitement and expectation levels for the season amongst the fanbase.  This season hasn’t seemed to excite the fans in a way that most prior seasons have, and honestly I can’t really blame any of you.

So: what is my realistic hope for this season?  In a fit of unplanned optimism, I predicted a 9 – 7 record on our recent predictions episode of The Hog Sty (see our predictions here: http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/08/29/1432/), and while I still stand by that prediction, this may end up being a situation where merely rooting for what appears to be a competent offense and improving defense may have to serve as 2017’s moral victory.  A sad reality is that a significant chunk of players on this roster have one year contracts, so if things don’t go well, we might see an entirely different team in 2018.  The best way to prevent that from happening, of course, is to play well.  Here are a few of what I feel are realistic expectations for the 2017 season beyond just winning games.

I do think that despite how the offense looked during the preseason, it is realistic to eventually see Kirk Cousins and Terrelle Pryor get comfortable enough with each other at some point during the season to see that connection become something that defenses need to fear.  Odds are that it won’t happen right away, but Pryor has too many physical gifts to not make this come true this season.  It was no accident that he gained over 1,000 yards last season in Cleveland despite some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL.  Of course, with both Kirk and Terrelle on one year contracts, this may take place just in time for both players to move to new teams.

I think it’s fair and reasonable to expect this team to produce a more successful and consistent ground game in 2017, with a usage rate higher than last year.  The Redskins have a quality offensive line (despite the line’s performance during the preseason), a running back with proven talent in Robert Kelley, a highly touted rookie in Samaje Perine, and one of the league’s better third down backs in Chris Thompson.  It therefore shouldn’t be too tall of an order for Jay Gruden to live up to his seemingly daily promise during the 2016 season to run the ball more, even if it’s not necessarily the A-gap power running that Redskins fans from the golden age of Joe Gibbs and company remember and love. Unless you are the New England Patriots, NFL teams – even passed-oriented west coast offense teams – just can’t win on a regular basis without keeping opposing offenses off balance by using the run game as a threat, even if the results aren’t great right from the get-go, particularly at the goal line.  So, between the development of Kelley, the emergence of Perine, and a (hopefully) greater, sustained commitment to running from the coach, fans should be able to realistically expect an improved run game this season.

The linebackers and secondary should show an increase in effectiveness, as the infusion of talent in players such as Zach Brown, a healthy Junior Galette, D.J. Swearinger, Fabian Moreau, and even Monte Nicholson and an improved Kendall Fuller should signal better days for those two position groups.  My expectation in this regard is better zone coverage with fewer blown assignments, more pressure on the quarterback off the edges, and better pass coverage from the linebackers underneath and downfield against the better tight ends.  That’s a reasonable expectation given the circumstances.

On the other hand, I’m not sure I can say with a straight face that it’s reasonable to expect much improvement in the defensive line this year considering the personnel who were brought in and what we’ve seen so far.  For significant strides to be made, Jonathan Allen is going to have to exceed his rookie expectations, because those around him – McGee, McClain, Hood, Ioannidis – don’t exactly inspire confidence that they can collectively be even a league average line.  The two big free agent acquisitions, McGee and McClain, have disappointed thusfar, with McGee having had slightly more positive impact than the virtually invisible McClain.  It unfortunately seems to be a total unknown at this point as to whether that group can be better than the 2016 defensive line either against the run (which is a very low bar, considering they were one of the worst in the NFL last season), in getting interior pressure against the quarterback, or on third downs, where they wee quite literally the worst in the league (see our week one game preview for the stats: http://www.thehogsty.com/2017/09/07/game-preview-week-1-eagles-at-redskins/).  The preseason hasn’t given me much to believe in, but we’ll see what happens when the live action starts against the Eagles.

I hope my 9 – 7 record prediction comes true, I really do.  If the Redskins manage to accomplish that much given the tough schedule and the multiple trips to the west coast, they will truly have done well, even if that does not result in a playoff birth.  In the absence of that, though, I’m forced to find solace in incremental steps by individual position groups.  It might just be that kind of season, folks, unfortunately.  What do you think?